I feel like we’re still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this story. Trump doesn’t just care about mail in ballots—he needs to limit voting period. I think his current policy will drive voters that despise Trump & younger voters (likely Dems) to do in-person voting. GOP voters (who overwhelmingly vote by mail) will likely continue to vote by mail in roughly the same numbers as before.
So how will they limit in-person voting then? We’ve already seen some GOP-controlled states limit polling locations (and now drop box locations) and this will likely continue. But even in blue states, you run the risk of not getting enough volunteers to staff some polling locations due to the pandemic. What happens to the electorate if you start to see “senior only” hours at polling locations (similar to what grocery stores started doing?)
I expect to see more dirty tricks closer to the election. Especially looking at Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.