The CT was their first new model in a while and the only one on the horizon, as the company is falling apart.
I'm curious about their long-term success. If they succeed in the future, then their current $168.29 is going to be a steal. Otherwise, a lot of stock-shorters are going to get VERY rich!
The current set of problems include Cybertruck pedal issues (fixable via recall) & Autopilot safety errors (fixable via software improvements, to an extent, but it will never be "perfect"). One of the issues I see with Autopilot is what I call the "lull of complacency", which is where the software works
just good enough MOST of the time to lure drivers into a false sense of security:
The NHTSA launches new probe into adequacy of 2-million vehicle recall in December, after discovering more crashes linked to Tesla’s Full Self Drive FSD.
mishtalk.com
In 59 crashes examined by NHTSA, the agency found that Tesla drivers had enough time, “five or more seconds,” prior to crashing into another object in which to react. In 19 of those crashes, the hazard was visible for 10 or more seconds before the collision. Reviewing crash logs and data provided by Tesla, NHTSA found that drivers failed to brake or steer to avoid the hazard in a majority of the crashes analyzed.
“Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances,” NHTSA said.
“A comparison of Tesla’s design choices to those of L2 peers identified Tesla as an industry outlier in its approach to L2 technology by mismatching a weak driver engagement system with Autopilot’s permissive operating capabilities,” the agency said.
I think self-driving technology has the potential to
massively reduce annual American driver deaths. Starting in 2021, we're back up to over 40k automotive deaths per year:
One of my concerns with Tesla's long-term viability is that they no longer have a solo lead in the market. I've driven nearly every EV on the market at this point. I personally consider the F-150 Lightning to be both the best EV & best car I've ever driven, followed by the Mach-E. As a Mustang guy, while I don't agree with the naming or styling of the Mach-E (fortunately nobody calls it a Mustang IRL, huzzah! lol), it is an utterly fantastic vehicle & I was SHOCKED at how good it was when I test-drove it.
Plus all of their cars look the same now. Tesla vehicles are fairly common at this point. They do design refreshes, but it's not like they've had radically different styling advances since the inception of each model. The S got a more pointy noise. The 3 recently got some aesthetic upgrades, but it's still a 3. I'm curious as to how well the Cybertruck will age vs. market saturation of eventually everyone who wants one getting one. The rumor is that Apple cut production on their VR headset from 800k units to 400k units due to that type of demand loss.
What I see on the horizon:
1. Perhaps AI could help with Autopilot improvements. I still think this is really 5 to 10 years away from making a major leap, however. As it is now, people aren't really sold on it as a must-have feature, like they are with something like Carplay or Android Auto. Like, I'd never buy a vehicle again without Carplay.
2. The charging partnership is genius & can provide long-term financial stability. Nearly all of the major players are now adapting into Supercharging culture. Although it's pretty funny to see the pushback at the chargers themselves from Tesla fans lol.
3. A "cheap" EV could do the trick. The thing is, there are already a lot of really nice, more budget-friendly EV's on the market, so they'd have to have some sort of special feature to compete with a Tesla Model 2 or whatever. Like, the Kia EV6 is a pretty awesome electric car & even has DC fast-charging to go from 10% to 80% battery in just 18 minutes, so there's competition on a variety of levels out there!
4. If the Roadster 2.0 ever comes out, that will sell like hotcakes. But that was back in like...2017. Elon operates on fluid timelines & I doubt we'll see anything until at
least 2026:
Elon Musk is back to Earth with new information about the Tesla Roadster, set to be unveiled by the end of 2024 with "radically increased design goals"
www.autoevolution.com
5. The electric Semi-truck has a lot of potential. It may be released in the next couple of years, but it's on Elon-time, so who knows lol.
So my questions are:
1. Is the Semi going to really make an impact? I think it has the
potential to. They just opened up a new Amazon distribution center near me & they're all using the new electric Rivian vans, so companies are definitely eager to save money on fuel costs & improve uptime by not having engine & whatnot.
2. Assuming they don't pull a Cybertruck release with the Roadster 2.0 where the price goes nuts & the features go down, this will sell pretty well. There's always a market for high-end products to people who have the finances available.
3. They'll have to be VERY careful about the compact Tesla rollout, as there's already plenty of good competition on the market. And non-Tesla Supercharging integration means the charging network is no longer an issue, so high-speed charging is no longer a competitive advantage for buying a Tesla.
4. Musk has been rather public about his politics & opinions. This has turned quite a few buys off about being associated with his brand, as now it's a politic & public-opinion issue.
5. What else do they have on the horizon? Is the Cybertruck going to hit a point where everyone who wants one has one? They've been doing a good job of getting the price down on the 3 & the Y, although I know owners who are pretty mad that they paid $10k to $25k over current prices in recent years & their resale value has absolutely
plummeted.
To me, it seems like the hype of Tesla is gone. Other car manufacturers are making really great EV's. I don't think Autopilot is going to make a huge leap to be all-consumer-friendly anytime soon. I don't know how they're going to compete long-term in terms of market dominance. Although what is nice is the price updates...you can lease a base Model 3 for $300/mo these days, which is pretty awesome:
Elon seems pretty focused on Twitter & SpaceX these days. Tesla has been historically riddled with massively overstated promises, which hasn't really deterred fans all that much, but they kind of seem to be going the Apple route: Apple has market saturation (great laptops, phones/tablets/watches, an available TV box, etc.) & is going left-field with stuff like the VR headset, which is kind of meh, so other than steady sales, I don't know what else Apple can really innovate with. Curious to see if Tesla can compete with a "cheap" EV in the future or not:
My buddy's Cybertruck is coming in next month, so I'm anxious to check that out. He's putting it up on Turo to help defray the cost. I'm jealous, but not at the price or battery range, haha!