Ignore the head to head, or 4-way polls at this point. Fine. But Biden's approval ratings have sucked for well over 2 years, with little directional movement at any time. I'm not filling diapers like some folks, but I think it's delusional to just brush things off and confidently proclaim Biden is gonna outperform 2020. Four years ago, Biden was about +5 in the national average around this time.
At least
@fskimospy is reasonable and says we can evaluate things better in 3 months.
Also, it's the battleground states that matter. Biden may be effectively "tied" nationally at this point, but the picture is shakier in the 6 states that matter.
2020 was actually pretty close if you look at the margin of victory in a few critical states. The fictitious "national popular vote" is irrelevant.