Six Month Countdown

Lost_in_the_HTTP · May 7, 2024

Yes, there are a number of other election threads, but many of them have gone off the rails one way or another.

Without repeating and rehashing, what do you think will happen?

While I'd like to see an overwhelming Blue Tidal Wave across all seats national, state and local. I expect not much change from the status quo. Marginal leads for one side or the other, but not enough to break the dysfunctional gridlock.

Fenixgoon · May 7, 2024

Maybe not a blue tidal wave, but I think overturning Roe is going to kill it for republicans. Dems get narrow majorities in the house and Senate, and Biden stays in office.

I also think if Trump and Biden do debate, Biden has an excellent opportunity to wipe the floor. He can call out every bad Republican policy, and talk about he's the one who actually got infrastructure investments for America.

I also think Trump's losing votes with more "mainstream" conservatives. He's got the die hards for sure, but I know a few people who simply can't bring themselves to vote for him again.

Of course thanks to the electoral college, it basically comes down to a few states no matter what.

K1052 · May 7, 2024

If I'm placing a bet? Biden re-elected, Democrats take House, Republicans take Senate.

Stokely · May 7, 2024

Trump not getting into the White House would be a massive win, that's all I know. Anything else is the proverbial preliminary bout in boxing. I guess the more Democrats in place to try to offset what he's going to try to do (gut everything and try his best to be a dictator like his hero Putin) if he does win, the better.

Inevitably, if he loses he'll claim he was cheated and he'll try to lead another y'all qaeda uprising from the safety of his bedroom.

Pens1566 · May 7, 2024

Biden wins, Ds take the house by a comfortable margin, Ds only lose WV in the senate.

Roger Wilco · May 7, 2024

Trump has six more months to kick himself and the GOP in the balls. He seems to be getting better at it too.

eelw · May 7, 2024

Biden squeaks out the EC win. Retake the House with narrow margins. Hold the Senate with 51 but without Sinchin obstructing, things get done.

dank69 · May 7, 2024

K1052 said:
If I'm placing a bet? Biden re-elected, Democrats take House, Republicans take Senate.

This seems likely, barring any significant developments between now and November. Six months is a long time in politics...

The good thing about this outcome will be at least we don't have to survive another Trump term.

The bad thing will be that the likelihood of Dems changing anything for the better will still be low. Then, if they don't keep the House and/or don't take the Senate with a solid majority in 2026 so they can get some changes through before 2028, dogshit Americans will be more likely to put another GOP stooge in power. The only difference between Trump and whoever that stooge happens to be will be that it's not possible to be as incompetent as Trump is/was.

MtnMan · May 7, 2024

Six months that is going to feel like 6 years.

iRONic · May 7, 2024

… and 6 new threads by the OP every mont.

UNCjigga · May 7, 2024

A very likely scenario I see playing out is Dems barely holding on to the Senate and eeking out a narrow majority in the House, while Donald Trump wins the presidency in the EC.

The new House session will start on January 3, 2025, and the Dems will literally start preparing articles of impeachment to be read on Inauguration Day (I don’t think they can impeach Trump while Biden’s in office, LOL!)

At that point, Trump’s Justice Department will immediately fight the impeachment, claiming double jeopardy (can’t be impeached twice for the same thing?) or some such nonsense and have SCOTUS weigh in. Not sure what will happen then, but I’ll be watching the VP pick with great interest…

Edit: Forgot that Rs only need 50 to take the Senate if Trump wins—so this is a less likely scenario when they only need 1 win between Ohio, Arizona and Montana (and can easily take all 3 nevermind any other competitive states.)

eelw · May 7, 2024

UNCjigga said:
A very likely scenario I see playing out is Dems barely holding on to the Senate and eeking out a narrow majority in the House, while Donald Trump wins the presidency in the EC.

The new House session will start on January 3, 2025, and the Dems will literally start preparing articles of impeachment to be read on Inauguration Day (I don’t think they can impeach Trump while Biden’s in office, LOL!)

At that point, Trump’s Justice Department will immediately fight the impeachment, claiming double jeopardy (can’t be impeached twice for the same thing?) or some such nonsense and have SCOTUS weigh in. Not sure what will happen then, but I’ll be watching the VP pick with great interest…

Edit: Forgot that Rs only need 50 to take the Senate if Trump wins—so this is a less likely scenario when they only need 1 win between Ohio, Arizona and Montana (and can easily take all 3 nevermind any other competitive states.)

They wouldn’t impeach him. They’ll 14A him for insurrection

gothuevos · May 7, 2024

Trump
GOP Senate
Dem House

K1052 · May 7, 2024

gothuevos said:
Trump
GOP Senate
Dem House

Unusually optimistic!

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Jun 5, 2024

Five Months.

Pundits and polls are all over the place.

It really could go either way at this point.

.

APU_Fusion · Jun 5, 2024

gothuevos said:
Trump
GOP Senate
Dem House

Biden
Dem senate
Dem house

Magat troll gothuevos 0

gothuevos · Jun 5, 2024

Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
Five Months.

Pundits and polls are all over the place.

It really could go either way at this point.

.

If my math is correct, AZ, GA, NV and PA gives Trump 271.

Unlikely that AZ and GA stay blue for two election cycles in a row. NV trending closer to red recently.

PA may be the wild card. Trump campaign has already said they're going to dump most of their cash into this state.

There may be a surprise state or two (VA?), but this might be his most realistic/easiest path.

And this shitty timeline is due for a 1 EC vote winner just to raise tensions even more.

APU_Fusion · Jun 5, 2024

gothuevos said:
If my math is correct, AZ, GA, NV and PA gives Trump 271.

Unlikely that AZ and GA stay blue for two election cycles in a row. NV trending closer to red recently.

PA may be the wild card. Trump campaign has already said they're going to dump most of their cash into this state.

There may be a surprise state or two (VA?), but this might be his most realistic/easiest path.

And this shitty timeline is due for a 1 EC vote winner just to raise tensions even more.

Oh shut up loser. Your magat faux concerns are seen through. Go suck the orange cream sickle

trenchfoot · Jun 5, 2024

Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
Five Months.

Pundits and polls are all over the place.

It really could go either way at this point.

.

That's what so amazing about this presidential race we are experiencing at the moment. As the chosen candidate of the GOP, we now have a convicted felon still facing further trials of whom is a known abuser of women, an adulterer, a chronic liar, a racist and among a host of other crippling personality disorders, his being a proven imbecile when it comes to his inability to be a uniter among peoples and nations. In fact, Trump is relying on his ability to be a divider to win his way back to the White House.

Trump is not only relying on the dregs of society to bolster his chances at the polls, he is also relying on the far right extremist factions of whom includes the religious fundamentalists of the nation to establish and perpetuate an authoritarian regime here in America. If common sense and logic were the driving factors behind how we, as a democracy will choose who will lead us on the world stage, how is it possible that a childish narcissist felon can be considered a legitimate candidate for leading the most powerful nation in the world?

Yet here we are. We find ourselves in a situation where it doesn't make sense to have a dangerously childish narcissistic felon as our titular head of state, yet he is viable. Just look at that huge mountain of reasons why Trump can never again be our president and then try to justify why he is still in the running. Absolutely insane to try, yet there he is and here we are.

eelw · Jun 5, 2024

trenchfoot said:
Just look at that huge mountain of reasons why Trump can never again be our president and then try to justify why he is still in the running. Absolutely insane to try, yet there he is and here we are.

But at least he’s not a Dem!!!

Stokely · Jun 5, 2024

re: Trenchfoot's post

Well said, and it says a ton about the good folk of this land.

There are two (well, with variations, more) completely incompatible perceived realities in this country, driven by utter bullshit on social media and biased "news" of choice influencing the thought processes and beliefs of millions. I'll leave it to the reader to decide whose reality is actually real.

sdifox · Jun 5, 2024

Is there a point to this? Campaigning never stops in the USA.

Roger Wilco · Jun 6, 2024

Interesting trend.

feralkid · Jun 6, 2024

gothuevos said:
If my math is correct, AZ, GA, NV and PA gives Trump 271.

Unlikely that AZ and GA stay blue for two election cycles in a row. NV trending closer to red recently.

PA may be the wild card. Trump campaign has already said they're going to dump most of their cash into this state.

There may be a surprise state or two (VA?), but this might be his most realistic/easiest path.

And this shitty timeline is due for a 1 EC vote winner just to raise tensions even more.

Yeah...right...Kari Lake wins AZ Senate race...uh-huh...

APU_Fusion · Jun 6, 2024

I predict Republicans will win every race and even add to their Supreme Court majority through the magic of gothuevos diaper changes.

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