Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
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I said that the R5 1600 was selling less than the inferior 2500K, did you even read what i wrote, where did i say that the 8350 was supposed to sell better than the 2500K..?.

So much or being dense.

And the 2500K is still selling better than the 8350, also only in German they knew that both the 2500K and 3570K where trash actually because they couldnt multitask at all and were far below the 8350 in this respect, that was demonstrated by Computerbase at the time, that s what made the difference with most US sites that were superficial.
Ah of course, the German Mindfactory users are ultra-rational ubermensch consumers. I should have known. But anyone who tries to extrapolate from AMD's dominance in Mindfactory sales to dominance in revenue or market share will be sorely disappointed and has been since as long as they've released figures.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
136
Could we forget the non-Zen5 stuff ??? Make a new thread. You guys are so bored with no Zen 5 results, you insist in talking about everything else BUT Zen 5.

4 days to go, take a chill pill !
But it is Zen 5 related as soon as it goes on sale. Granite Ridge isn't gonna do much for AMD's market share. But I'm sure those charts from Germany will look nice.

Turin, on the other hand, will be out sold heavily by Intel but it'll actually make AMD much more money. Weird how that works.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,162
3,858
136
Ah of course, the German Mindfactory users are ultra-rational ubermensch consumers. I should have known. But anyone who tries to extrapolate from AMD's dominance in Mindfactory sales to dominance in revenue or market share will be sorely disappointed and has been since as long as they've released figures.
That s not the point, in the list you provided Intel s marketshare is about 75% and AMD 25%, and that s with Zen 1 released, so what was it before, you think that it was higher than 20%..?.
My point was that circa 2015-2016 AMD was at a much lower marketshare than 20% at Mindfactory, and your own numbers just prove it.

Dont change the goal poasts by talking of the 8350 that sold well because it was fire sold at an average of 70€ when Zen 1 was released, that s annual sales btw.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
136
That s not the point, in the list you provided Intel s marketshare is about 75% and AMD 25%, and that s with Zen 1 released, so what was it before, you think that it was higher than 20%..?.
My point was that circa 2015-2016 AMD was at a much lower marketshare than 20% at Mindfactory, and your own numbers just prove it.

Dont change the goal poasts by talking of the 8350 that sold well because it was fire sold at an average of 70€ when Zen 1 was released, that s annual sales btw.
Goal posts have not shifted. Do not look for big trends from Mindfactory sales like the TechEpiphany tweet that spawned this subject did.

Mercury says AMD's market share in 2016 was <10%. Comparing Mindfactory figures from 2015 to 2016 says about 18%. Or 80% higher than the world average. German DIY is an extremely aberrant (read: pro-AMD) market and no extrapolation should ever be made from it. Do so at your own peril. Mindfactory today shows Radeon selling well but we all know that's not the case based on RTG's finances, Steam Survey, and so on.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,162
3,858
136
Mercury says AMD's market share in 2016 was <10%.
Comparing Mindfactory figures from 2015 to 2016 says about 18%. Or 80% higher than the world average. Germany DIY is an extremely aberrant (read: pro-AMD) and no extrapolation should ever be made from it. Do so at your own peril. Mindfactory shows Radeon selling well but we all know that's not the case based on RTG's finances, Steam Survey, and so on.
Mercury account only OEMs sales, and only the biggest ones, the Minisforum and other Geekom are not accounted, let alone the retail CPU market.

Notice that they do the same for GPUs, they account only the GPUs sold in commercial PCs, be it laptops or DTs, when you buy a dGPU or CPU at Mindfactory, Amazon or Microcenter this is outside of their radar.

Now from Mindfactory numbers we can infer that there s way more than 500k CPUs sold each year in Germany, more likely something like 1M, and this amount to 20% of the CPUs sold in laptops or commercial PCs there.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
3,373
136
Mercury account only OEMs sales, and only the biggest ones, the Minisforum and other Geekom are not accounted, let alone the retail CPU market.

Notice that they do the same for GPUs, they account only the GPUs sold in commercial PCs, be it laptops or DTs, when you buy a dGPU or CPU at Mindfactory, Amazon or Microcenter this is outside of their radar.

Now from Mindfactory numbers we can infer that there s way more than 500k CPU sold each year in germany, more likely something like 1M, and this amount to 20% of the CPUs sold in laptops or commercial PCs there.
My point remains the same. Mindfactory is and has been disproportionately AMD. Intel sells more than 8% of the units in DIY pretty much everywhere else in the world.

Mindfactory is at 92 to 8% Intel.
Korea DIY CPU sales from Danawa Research meanwhile have 55% to 45%.

Don't pretend Mindfactory/Germany DIY market in general is normal. You can argue brand loyalty doesn't exist but you're proof it does. In any case the end result is Mindfactory sales cannot be generalized. Zen is on a long march to take market share from Intel and even in the DIY markets it isn't near what the Mindfactory numbers suggest.
 

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gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
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136

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,162
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136
My point remains the same. Mindfactory is and has been disproportionately AMD. Intel sells more than 8% of the units in DIY pretty much everywhere else in the world.

Mindfactory is at 92 to 8% Intel.
Korea DIY CPU sales from Danawa Research meanwhile have 55% to 45%.

Don't pretend Mindfactory/Germany DIY market in general is normal. You can argue brand loyalty doesn't exist but you're proof it does. In any case the end result is Mindfactory sales cannot be generalized. Zen is on a long march to take market share from Intel and even in the DIY markets it isn't near what the Mindfactory numbers suggest.

Where did i say that it can be generalized.?

But you ll notice that even the corean market is far from Mercury s and JPR numbers that put AMD in the vicinity of 20% CPU marketshare, they just greatly underestimate the retail market numbers, just look at Microcenter annual revenue, there s a big chunk that is CPUs related.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,378
12,768
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Regarding the Mindfactory data:
  • we know there is a market bias in Germany, in the same timeframe we can observe higher AMD sales than in the US for example
  • this bias is not unconditional though, there were times when Mindfactory reported significantly higher Intel sales. At times Intel was on top.
  • AFAIK the 90%+ figure is unprecedented
The factors that come to my mind with the potential to increase sales are the recent Intel stability issues and a slow but continuous mind-share uptick for AMD CPUs. I would argue the 3D v-cache tech did wonders for them in the DIY sectors, more than the core count wars ever did. Intel refreshing their lineup twice without an architectural update certainly did not help.

After writing the above, I decided to take a look at Amazon's sales rankings:

First of all notice how AMD holds the first 5 places, but more importantly notice the SKUs involved: 1 high-end SKU followed by value and budget oriented chips. You can't get a better snapshot of the halo effect than this. On the Intel side there's a surprising lack of 14th gen products in the top mix, the 14700K is #12 on the list. We don't see the 14600k/13600k/12600K in the top 10, instead folks seem to be buying discounted 12700K(F) - which is a very interesting point that might be worth discussing separately in another thread.

That being said, I don't understand why people argue over Mindfactory data. It can never describe the whole market, but anomalies in MF sales usually signal that something is happening that may have impact in other parts of the world.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Could we forget the non-Zen5 stuff ??? Make a new thread. You guys are so bored with no Zen 5 results, you insist in talking about everything else BUT Zen 5.

4 days to go, take a chill pill !

The TechEpiphany tweet said these are "pre-Zen5" CPU sales stats at MindFactory. So, it is Zen 5 related, and we can wonder what will happen once Zen 5 is released.

I think what MindFactory represents is German PC and DIY users are ahead of the rest of the world and they are trendsetters.

Recent trends it set (or led):
1. 7800x3d sales dwarfing everything else
2. instability of higher performance Intel CPUs (13700, 14700 and above) made buying Intel CPUs a bad proposition, on top of them being on a dead platform

I think the most recent collapse of Intel sales in the teased Tweet is result of #2. We will have to wait if the upcoming weeks confirm this.

And it only gets worse for Intel when AMD adds a tier above Zen 4
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Goal posts have not shifted. Do not look for big trends from Mindfactory sales like the TechEpiphany tweet that spawned this subject did.

Mercury says AMD's market share in 2016 was <10%. Comparing Mindfactory figures from 2015 to 2016 says about 18%. Or 80% higher than the world average. German DIY is an extremely aberrant (read: pro-AMD) market and no extrapolation should ever be made from it. Do so at your own peril. Mindfactory today shows Radeon selling well but we all know that's not the case based on RTG's finances, Steam Survey, and so on.

To find trends, past MindFactory vs. current MindFactory is a valid comparison.

While you can't claim it represents the entire market, you can see trends. For example, after release of Alder Lake, Intel sales have improved, and stayed OKish until they started to collapse with the release of 7800x3d.

From here, to Zen 5 release, Intel performance results will go down as a result of stable settings, and Zen 5 results will go up, above Zen 4. Possibly above Zen 4 V-Cache in gaming.
 

Mahboi

Senior member
Apr 4, 2024
741
1,316
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German DIY is an extremely aberrant (read: pro-AMD) market and no extrapolation should ever be made from it. Do so at your own peril. Mindfactory today shows Radeon selling well but we all know that's not the case based on RTG's finances, Steam Survey, and so on.
That is a ridiculous take frankly. Markets aren't in multiple dimensions. Hard numbers can't and shouldn't be trusted to apply everywhere, but greater trends are the same everywhere.
I've also bothered to look up Amazon France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, US, Spain, Italy, etc, and check their top sold CPUs: it's all strongly Ryzen, with more or less Intel, but Ryzen tops them all.

Edit: look for yourself...
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,323
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Who? Abwx? Or someone on Twitter?

I don't use twitter much. If it's Abwx, can you please post a historical graph of Intel vs. AMD sales from the time when Alder Lake was launched till now?
TechEpiphamy's original Twitter account was suspended, and that account had a goldmine, years of sales statistics.

Suspension most likely a result of mass reporting by a censorship mob (I never asked him what happened).

Those MindFactory stats would be good for seeing trends, such as AMD gaining with Zen 3, then Intel recovering market share following Alder Lake and then AMD coming back after 7800x3d.

BTW, I will definitely be curious about number of Zen 5 sold in first weeks after the release.
 

Philste

Member
Oct 13, 2023
117
248
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I remember that after ZEN3 launch it looked like it looks now, and that Raptor Lake outsold ZEN4 by at least 2×. But I can't remember how it looked like at Alder Lake launch.

The Thing with Mindfactory is that they are an AMD Partner, they will often have some special stuff at launches and everytime something new from AMD launches it will be prominently with a banner on the starting Page. Also MF is always the cheapest way to get AMD CPUs, apart from some sales on other platforms. Because the same isn't true for Intel, I would definitely say MF is a best case for AMD. I'm bot doubting ZEN4 is outselling RPL in general, but definitely not by the margin MF makes it look like.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,323
2,929
106
That is a ridiculous take frankly. Markets aren't in multiple dimensions. Hard numbers can't and shouldn't be trusted to apply everywhere, but greater trends are the same everywhere.
I've also bothered to look up Amazon France, Germany, Switzerland, UK, US, Spain, Italy, etc, and check their top sold CPUs: it's all strongly Ryzen, with more or less Intel, but Ryzen tops them all.

Edit: look for yourself...

BTW, the gap between #1 7800x3d ag 8,000+ units sold and #2 with 2,000+ units sold is not that different from Mindfactory numbers.
 
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