Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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phoenix21

Junior Member
Apr 6, 2024
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No it’s not. ARM did 16% YoY vs AMD’s 8% YoY.

Apple did 7% IPC M3 -> M4 in 7 months. That’s also a company that’s lost a lot of CPU talent recently.

AMD is actually on the low end.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/17031/anandtech-interviews-mike-clark-amds-chief-architect-of-zen
Zen 5 is so great that Mike Clark will finally wake up and buy that thing and prepare his presentation for Hot Chips 2024.
No hate to engineers but 16% is not enough after 2 years. This should have been released in 2023 with this much performance. If intel deserves hate for rebranding 13th Gen, then what special did AMD do in 2023? This 2 year cadence just sucks. And they were counting on 4nm for this, while mobile chips have moved to 2nd gen 3nm and intel on 20A (GAA). Even N4X would do for desktop parts. They only get lower with this lazy strategy.
I was counting on 30% since tenstorrent projection. Zen 3 brought 19% ipc from 14% increase in core area (no L2). I guess major part of CCD area increase over zen 2 was added TSV for 3DV Cache. But with Zen 5, no more TSVs to be added, even a 20% increase in core area and power can be covered by N4X efficiency at iso clocks. RISV Ascalon and Nuvia oryon to look forward.
 
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JustViewing

Member
Aug 17, 2022
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I was always suspected the claim of >30%, >40% when the known architecture changes for Z5 are not enough for that. Even then it is very difficult to extract more IPC within exiting code base.
The big IPC gain (for both AMD and intel) will come after the 'proper' implementation of Intel's new APX instruction set.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,727
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Looking at



It seems like the 9950X will still be quite a bit slower than the X3D zen 4s for gaming. My guess is Zen 5 X3D will be later this year then.

Given arrowlake loses HT don't think a 8P 16E will be much faster if any than the 9950X in productivity / content creation.
 

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
385
639
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No it’s not. ARM did 16% YoY vs AMD’s 8% YoY.

Apple did 7% IPC M3 -> M4 in 7 months. That’s also a company that’s lost a lot of CPU talent recently.

AMD is actually on the low end.
Compared to a single competitor who hasn't even had any of those results actually validated outside of geekbench and software that is heavily optimized for apple compilers. Go look at the M2 on openbenchmark and see how well it performs even comapred to zen 2. https://openbenchmarking.org/vs/Processor/Apple+M2,AMD+Ryzen+7+4800U

I wish they had M3 and M4 numbers but if apple has only managed a 30% improvement then they will still be behind Zen5 in real world benchmarks.

Its actually really weird to me how many people apparently want to believe 15% is bad when we had 5% every 16 months in the 2010s until AMD finally broke the mold with ryzen. Yeah some benchmarks say some ARM CPUS are stupid far ahead meanwhile, the real world benchmarks aren't there to back it up.

Almost once again like we saw with zen 2 and the AT 5ghz $499 rumors, people set up a hype train for extreme performance and relative value, thus leading people to believe its a flop basically for no actual real reason other than drama. Meanwhile I doubt anyone buying a Zen5 chip is going to feel sad unless it actually costs them $999.
 

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
385
639
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Zen 4 was fine with even less because it had a higher clock rate than it's predecessor.
Guess nobody cares about power anymore eh? How much more efficient was Zen4 compared to Zen3?

Not trying to patronize, its a genuine question, because they raised TDPs quite a bit with that clock gain.

And still its so early, AMDs supposedly lower power with Z5 could be much overstated, don't get me wrong.
 
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gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
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Guess nobody cares about power anymore eh? How much more efficient was Zen4 compared to Zen3?

Not trying to patronize, its a genuine question, because they raised TDPs quite a bit with that clock gain.
For the 1T boost clock? I was under the impression it was nowhere near TDP. Not sure why that would matter.
 
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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Guess nobody cares about power anymore eh? How much more efficient was Zen4 compared to Zen3?

Not trying to patronize, its a genuine question, because they raised TDPs quite a bit with that clock gain.

And still its so early, AMDs supposedly lower power with Z5 could be much overstated, don't get me wrong.
That's nT power, not really relevant to the discussion here.
 
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Tup3x

Golden Member
Dec 31, 2016
1,008
996
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Looking at



It seems like the 9950X will still be quite a bit slower than the X3D zen 4s for gaming. My guess is Zen 5 X3D will be later this year then.

Given arrowlake loses HT don't think a 8P 16E will be much faster if any than the 9950X in productivity / content creation.
Yeah... Doesn't look good.
 

roger_k

Member
Sep 23, 2021
102
215
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I think you're over valuing the ARM and Apple IPC improvements. M4 was like 5% improvement and has been <= 5% for multiple generations now. The latest ARM big core seems to be < 10% though that's still TBD with proper testing. Apple (and ARM to a degree) have mostly been increasing performance through clock gains. Apple is still IPC king because of the lead they had starting several years ago, but IPC increases have not been good as of late.

“IPC” depends on the workload, and I think it would be good to discuss it as such. Looking at GB6 subtests, M4 improved iso-clock performance between 0% and 30% (this is discarding tests that benefit from the new matrix hardware). In the few sub tests where the iso-performance did not improve (most notably, Clang), Apple already leads the industry by 50-60% iso-clock, so this is the area where improvements are most hard to come by.
 

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
385
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For the 1T boost clock? I was under the impression it was nowhere near TDP. Not sure why that would matter.
lol it all matters? Why wouldn't it matter

That would be pretty magical of them to increase multi-core performance per watt without also increasing single core performance per watt.
 

TwistedAndy

Member
May 23, 2024
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The 16% IPC increase is a pretty good result. My biggest concern is that it took almost two years to achieve that.

If we take Apple, for comparison, M4 has 8 - 12% better IPC than M1 (in SPEC17 and GeekBench 6 without SME). Yes, during the last 4 years, Apple has had a smaller IPC increase than AMD in 2 years. Most of the performance increase comes from higher clock speeds.
 

roger_k

Member
Sep 23, 2021
102
215
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M4 is also a new core that actually had IPC improvements. Plus Apple stalled. Lost talent.




I’m sorry but AMD has CPU talent. It’s what makes AMD, AMD. Apple it’s still recovering from Gerard loss.

Maybe it’s time to put this argument to rest? In the last 4 years Apple had more ST gains than any x86 designer, and their rate of improvement actually accelerated with M4. Yes, some of those were achieved by increasing the power consumption (just like anyone else does). There is no evidence whatsoever that they are stalled or hurting for loss of talent. I don’t think that “they failed to increase Clang subtest IPC since 2021” is a good argument. Their IPC there is already ridiculously high. They might be at a practical limit.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,383
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It seems like the 9950X will still be quite a bit slower than the X3D zen 4s for gaming. My guess is Zen 5 X3D will be later this year then.
You can compare some of the gaming numbers in the slide with HUB data from their latest 7800X3D vs. 14900K @ Asus Baseline. See Cyberpunk, F1, Horizon. The HUB test has 14900K is paired with DDR5 7200 and 7800X3D with DDR5 6000, and I think the AMD slide has both CPUs @ DDR5 6000 and a different GPU.

Still, Zen 5% has a good chance to match or beat Zen 4 X3D, especially if the IF is clocked a bit higher as suggested days ago. Obviously we need more data.
 

H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
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The inclusion of the GB AES test is peculiar for sure but AMD previously has had some peculiar examples in their IPC chart and it still came out pretty much in line with SPEC. We'll have to wait and see how well it holds up with independent testing.
Some of the metrics that are important for client are totally missing (7zip for example), the ones that are included WebXprt & Jetstream it’s 15% and 12% respectively. Also, why would they compare the 9950X v 7700X in the IPC chart? I’m willing to bet it does worse in 3rd party benchmarks than what AMD showed us tonight.

More importantly, who exactly is buying this thing over Zen 4 X3D? It doesn’t meaningfully beat RPL in 1T performance (either worse or at parity in javabloat and cinememe) and probably doesn’t outperform Zen 4 X3D in gaming.. so what is the market for SKUs like 9600X and 9700X?
 
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gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,478
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The 16% IPC increase is a pretty good result. My biggest concern is that it took almost two years to achieve that.

If we take Apple, for comparison, M4 has 8 - 12% better IPC than M1 (in SPEC17 and GeekBench 6 without SME). Yes, during the last 4 years, Apple has had a smaller IPC increase than AMD in 2 years. Most of the performance increase comes from higher clock speeds.
But Apple is increasing clock rates faster than AMD. AMD (and Intel) need to go for IPC because they can't get much frequency. Apple can still get frequency.
 
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Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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