Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,825
5,442
136
There are many questions floating in my head.
  • completely new grounds-up design in development since 2018
  • designer's dream
  • magic frontend
  • so much more resources, width, and depth
  • finally a GLC level resources
  • Zen 4 was anemic
  • Zen 3 was a similar grounds-up design - but just reshuffling the components
  • 100% op-sec - Osborning the entire lineup
  • MLID got fake slides - disregard 10-15%
  • 32-40% 1T

They went with a cheaper design because TSMC is expensive and the entire tech industry only cares about AI now?
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
666
904
136
"AMD Performance Labs" is such a joke. They have only succeeded in confusing us. I wonder if they came up with honest results and then marketing told them, no no. We want it like so and then they were forced to create the jumbled up mess that we got.
AMD's performance reveals have been a mess a few different times now. Just strange errors, sloppy work and confusing all around.
 

del42sa

Member
May 28, 2013
65
65
91
There are many questions floating in my head.
  • completely new grounds-up design in development since 2018
  • designer's dream
  • magic frontend
  • so much more resources, width, and depth
  • finally a GLC level resources
  • Zen 4 was anemic
  • Zen 3 was a similar grounds-up design - but just reshuffling the components
  • 100% op-sec - Osborning the entire lineup
  • MLID got fake slides - disregard 10-15%
  • 32-40% 1T
I think it's obvious that the original goal was much more ambitious. One thing is the hypetrain and house numbers like a 30% better ipc and such nonsenses .. the second thing is that when you do ground up redesign with increase the number of ALU´s by 50%, the frontend doubles and intergenerationally huge increase the number of transistors, you don´t do it because of 16% IPC..... Zen2 had 15% with cosmetic changes, Zen4 had 13% and that was not an architecture focused primarily on ipc but on clocks and avx512.. I really don't believe they aimed below 20-25%. . it also confirms that for ZEN 6, which was supposed to be just an evolution, they will eventually completely redo the frontend.
 
Last edited:
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,825
5,442
136
I think it's obvious that the original goal was much more ambitious. One thing is the hypetrain and house numbers like a 30% better ipc and such nonsenses .. the second thing is that when you do ground up redesign with increase the number of ALU´s by 50%, the frontend doubles and intergenerationally huge increase the number of transistors, you don´t do it because of 16% IPC..... Zen2 had 15% with cosmetic changes, Zen4 had 14% and that was not an architecture focused primarily on ipc but on clocks and avx512.. I really don't believe they aimed below 20-25%. . it also confirms that for ZEN 6, which was supposed to be just an evolution, they will eventually completely redo the frontend.

Transistor count increase can't be that much. The shrink from N5 to N4 isn't that much and the die is not that much bigger.
 
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carrotmania

Member
Oct 3, 2020
74
199
76
I'm wondering if Mike Clarks comments were made before the realisation that intel would go HAM with power usage, forcing AMD to increase Zen4 more than the average user wanted/liked. Zen5 is decent in laptops, and in server... ie at "reasonable" power limits. Without Zen4 being pushed to 170W already, Zen5 (@ say, 140-150W) may have been on track to be better positioned using previous power/perf estimates.
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
666
904
136
Zen 3 was a 19% uplift and that was after the TAGE branch predictor was introduced earlier than planned in Zen 2, so it was supposed to be even higher originally. And it increased clocks, unlike Zen 5. AMD just isn't doing well enough with the competition ramping up, they need either a quicker cadence or much greater generational increases than this. Since it seems that Zen 6 will be an iterative improvement on the core, there's nothing interesting to look forward to from AMD in that regard for several years. Hopefully, another company picks up the slack and creates a CPU that isn't third rate compared to Apple's for those of us that aren't interested in Apple's ecosystem.
 
Jul 27, 2020
17,787
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Besides, what is the point of sandbagging something like CPU performance?
Could be because they are unsure of what Arrow Lake may be like. Zen 5 may be winning a lot of benchmarks in July against 14900K/KS (even by 1%) but AMD would prefer supremacy so they may have something in store for the Arrow Lake launch (optimized AGESA, new models with boosted clocks, high speed EXPO kits etc). There's also the possibility that the Zen5X3D by year end may be based on 3nm silicon and so may boost to 5.7 GHz at lower power, heat and voltage without harming the V-cache die. As of now, the situation just seems too muddy.
 
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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,383
12,800
136
we have one look at 1t using GB6 3.0. HX 370 up to 5.1GHz vs X Elite up to 4.2GHz?.

Do we have endnotes for this slide?
We have, but you're not gonna like the info, AMD is hellbent on having errors in all of their important slides/end-notes. How they managed to write GB 1T in the slide and GB multi-core in the end-note is anyone's guess.


 

del42sa

Member
May 28, 2013
65
65
91
so I guess that Lenovo manager was right after all, because final IPC in graph is kind of "fishy" and the question is whether AMD did not slightly improve that average to 16% by include particular cherry- picked tests in graphs such as Geeekbench 5 a Geekbench 6 so without them the average IPC would be slightly above ~10%

 

poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
1,379
1,580
106
I think I got the highest Windows GB6 result for X Elite. 5% more would put AMD HX 370 at M3 level of 1t in GB6 3.0

If we take one of the highest Ryzen 9 8945HS scores and add 16% IPC it adds up more or less.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,323
2,929
106
In retrospect of the Zen 5 launch, it is clear that some compromises were made to keep the die size to minimum. The bread and butter for AMD is selling 128 of these cores in one product and if the core size bloated to unwieldly size, it would undermine the economics of the server CPUs.

Also looking at how tightly the CCDs are placed on Turin, there was probably not even physical space to go to +50% on die size. (which may be the real answer here).

Similar thing happened with RDNA3. People had big expectations, and then Skyjuice revealed the die sizes, and they were relatively tiny. Not really lending themselves to some legendary performance uplifts.

Same situation here. +5% to +10% die size increase (while doubling AVX-512) just isn't going to support +40% IPC without some magic...
 
Jul 27, 2020
17,787
11,594
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I can think of another reason why AMD tested with DDR5-6000 only. Most existing AM5 users have EXPO RAM kits at this speed so they showed what performance gains these existing users can expect with just a simple CPU swap (except custom cooling folks of course).
 
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