Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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poke01

Golden Member
Mar 8, 2022
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My hot take

phones are poor peoples primary computing device, and a not poor persons convenience. Take my 15 and 17 year old children , They both have mobile , iPad and laptop , we have desktops and PS4 + PS5. They do all there real work on the laptop , do most of their creative work on the laptop ( they have drawing tablets ) but some on the ipad and all their games on the Desktop + PS5. Phone is primarily music + video player.

i dont see AMD or x86 caring to race to the bottom against budget arm SOC's that go into budget phones........
Yeah I agree. Most people would need a phone and a laptop/tablet for their computing needs. School, work, games etc
 

B-Riz

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2011
1,530
676
136
Pricing guesses here, since AMD marketing is referencing a Zen2 ! product as a surprise sales sweet spot (the 3700X).

Reasoning: I don't think Zen4 prices will go much lower in the next few weeks, and if Zen5 is too high, people will not buy it.

9950X $699
9900X $499
7800X3D $339 as of this post
9700X $299 - $329
9600X ~$249

I think the 9700X has to launch cheaper than what the 7800X3D is going for right now, if it is only a little slower in gaming.

Maybe 9950X and 9900X could be cheaper? Cannot believe 7950X is under $500 right now, lol.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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Cannot believe 7950X is under $500 right now, lol.
It would sell at a higher cost if people only cared about power efficiency and reliable performance. But whatever. This would have been a good time to be a data center owner or being a private supercomputer maker. Pick up all the 7950X CPUs on the market cheap!
 

deasd

Senior member
Dec 31, 2013
551
865
136
AMD's manager on why 8 cores GNR doesn't need higher TDP:

All of those things are pretty big differences compared to previous small steps and launches. We’re going back on TDP because it turns out our eight cores are so good we don’t need higher TDP, so I think it’s a pretty stark comparison,
– David McAfee – AMD Corporate VP and General Manager of the Client Channel Business
David McAfee further states that lower power targets allow AMD to deliver more performance without increasing power and heat. The Ryzen 9000 SKUs have the same maximum frequency, but the frequency residency, efficiency of the lid, and thermal changes allowed AMD to lift the performance higher.
 

Goop_reformed

Senior member
Sep 23, 2023
246
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AMD's manager on why 8 cores GNR doesn't need higher TDP:

To me that's pr talk. At the end of the day they only managed a +16% from a basically ground up design. That's very mediocre.
 

StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
5,682
8,240
136
To me that's pr talk.
Obviously, what else should it be, as this was said on a press briefing in preparation of the Computex keynote (which itself was not the product launch).
That raises more question than it explain anything
Much like the keynote itself did.

Edit, PS:
I guess the press directed a lot of questions towards AMD after the keynote. And yet there is no news outlet reporting on answers to their questions, aside from a few small things, as far as I have seen.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,104
136
To me that's pr talk. At the end of the day they only managed a +16% from a basically ground up design. That's very mediocre.
But, it looks like the CPU design team greatly improved efficiency. Not great for enthusiasts, but great for those buying servers. I assume that their are hotspots, timing issues or other limitations that prevent AMD from clocking enthusiasts CPUs up to a higher frequency that those lower power consumption limits would tend to imply.
 

eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
3,043
4,264
136
is there some major FOMO in the air that the next ARM supermiracle will outperform X86?

strong investment into the absolute BEST CPU should be a no-brainer no? it will buy the whole market
No. ARM won't be faster. It will also (on top of not being faster) have an additional 30-50% penalty for emulating X86, which will also hurt perf/watt.
Pricing guesses here, since AMD marketing is referencing a Zen2 ! product as a surprise sales sweet spot (the 3700X).

Reasoning: I don't think Zen4 prices will go much lower in the next few weeks, and if Zen5 is too high, people will not buy it.

9950X $699
9900X $499
7800X3D $339 as of this post
9700X $299 - $329
9600X ~$249

I think the 9700X has to launch cheaper than what the 7800X3D is going for right now, if it is only a little slower in gaming.

Maybe 9950X and 9900X could be cheaper? Cannot believe 7950X is under $500 right now, lol.
I'm expecting MSRPs similar to the Zen 4 launch. Prices might be slightly higher due to inflation. Prices will come down once Intel has something that can compete.
AMD's manager on why 8 cores GNR doesn't need higher TDP:

I'm curious as to how well Zen 5 will scale with increasing power limits. Knowing PR/corporate speak, I suspect there are other reasons.

They are really just making Intel look bad at this point. Possibly even Qualcomm. 88W Zen 5 vs 230W+ for Intel peak power consumption. the 9700X will be faster at gaming while consuming 1/3rd the power.
To me that's pr talk. At the end of the day they only managed a +16% from a basically ground up design. That's very mediocre.
That is a pretty significant Gen-on-Gen increase!

Higher than Apple has done in 4 years.

Also, that 16% was an average of apps and games listed. There are some apps and games that have seen obscene 40-60% uplifts, and NOT due to AVX-512.

Intel hasn't managed 16% in a long time. The 14900k was an overclocked 13900k. The 13900k only did better than the 12900k due to doubling of the e-cores and higher clocks.

The 12900k was really the last time they managed north of that number, and that was with a major die shrink and a huge increase in core size. Zen 5 does use N4, but N4, while offering improvements, is a pretty mild improvement, definitely less than Intel's 14nm to 10nm Intel 7. (note: mobile Zen 4 was always N4, while desktop was N5)

EDIT: Find me one vendor that routinely drops 15+% IPC or performance increases for CPUs without driving power consumption through the roof. I'll wait.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,104
136
Isn't the lower TDP on 9700X (65W) compared to 7700X (105W) due to the lower base clock on the former?

9700X: Base clock 3.8 GHz
7700X: Base clock 4.5 GHz
Well, TDP is kind of a crazy measurement, but. Max watts should be at max clocks (under load), so I'd think that would be sustained max freq. Or, it could be based on something else. Did AMD say? We will be waiting for 3rd party benches to really find out what the performance envelope of Zen5 CPUs is.
 
Mar 8, 2024
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Seriously; saying Zen 5 is a disappointment because it "only" gave us a 15% gen-on-gen improvement is forgetful of the all-too-recent dark days of 14nm Intel metaphorically nickel-and-diming us with 5ish percent for more than 5 years. A 9600x will be faster than a 5800x3d in gaming, will cost half as much at launch, and will sip power relative to any of its Intel price competitors. AMD is many things, but Zen has been a successful grab at the brass ring. If Zen 6 or 7 is only meagerly faster than the previous iteration, I'll change my tune, but things are generally hunky-dory in terms of consumer enthusiast processors.
 

SK10H

Member
Jun 18, 2015
117
50
101
Pricing guesses here, since AMD marketing is referencing a Zen2 ! product as a surprise sales sweet spot (the 3700X).

Reasoning: I don't think Zen4 prices will go much lower in the next few weeks, and if Zen5 is too high, people will not buy it.

9950X $699
9900X $499
7800X3D $339 as of this post
9700X $299 - $329
9600X ~$249

I think the 9700X has to launch cheaper than what the 7800X3D is going for right now, if it is only a little slower in gaming.

Maybe 9950X and 9900X could be cheaper? Cannot believe 7950X is under $500 right now, lol.
I think those pricing look slightly too generous for current AMD.
Probably 9950x $749. What else are you going to buy soon? Still want to move some units though, not $999.
9900X $549, why make it lower than 7900x launch price even if it doesn't sell well, if dumb rebrand can reset the price, so can brand new core.
9700X $399-449, take the hit early adopter even if it's not that great, 449 won't sell well it will need at least a game bundle, $399 probably ok. 7800x3d retail promo sale may stop after zen5 launch,the no warranty tray unit from aliexpress may still be available for $280 probably on sale/coupon.

9700x use case is more than 7800x3d at almost matching gaming performance with higher ST task. It should not cost lower than that at retail.
 

Kryohi

Member
Nov 12, 2019
27
48
91
EDIT: Find me one vendor that routinely drops 15+% IPC or performance increases for CPUs without driving power consumption through the roof. I'll wait.
ARM. If you consider they do yearly architectural upgrades instead of every ~2 years, they're doing better than AMD.

Edit: doesn't mean zen 5 with its 16% improvement will be that bad though, considering the overall competitors landscape.
 
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Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,921
400
126
Well, TDP is kind of a crazy measurement, but. Max watts should be at max clocks (under load), so I'd think that would be sustained max freq. Or, it could be based on something else. Did AMD say? We will be waiting for 3rd party benches to really find out what the performance envelope of Zen5 CPUs is.
Well, TDP is Thermal Design Power, which can be sustained (at base clock?). Actual power consumption will be higher than TDP.

If it is not at base clock, then why specify any base clock at all? The CPU will be able to run at max clock forever, if sufficient cooling is available.
 
Mar 8, 2024
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ARM. If you consider they do yearly architectural upgrades instead of every ~2 years, they're doing better than AMD.

Edit: doesn't mean zen 5 with its 16% improvement will be that bad though, considering the overall competitors landscape.

I feel like it's tough to really compare ARM uarch to a fully fledged x86 CISC core. ARM doesn't tape out full package designs for high performance silicon, but AMD and Intel do... I presume that's why there's so much money poured into doing your own core with ARM's architecture, and why it's been so hard for not-Apple to have something that doesn't suck.
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
435
717
136
Seriously; saying Zen 5 is a disappointment because it "only" gave us a 15% gen-on-gen improvement is forgetful of the all-too-recent dark days of 14nm Intel metaphorically nickel-and-diming us with 5ish percent for more than 5 years.
Zen 5 is the first major core designed from Ryzen/EPYC money. Its development took a while. It features rather notable changes to the core. Yet, the IPC gain is not really notably higher than that of its predecessors'.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,488
3,375
136
Isn't the lower TDP on 9700X (65W) compared to 7700X (105W) due to the lower base clock on the former?

9700X: Base clock 3.8 GHz
7700X: Base clock 4.5 GHz
I don't know in which cases base clocks actually apply but the 7700 in default configuration (65W TDP 88W PPT) stays over 5GHz running an AVX workload on all cores.

I note this because it also has a 3.8GHz base clock.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,921
400
126
I don't know in which cases base clocks actually apply but the 7700 in default configuration (65W TDP 88W PPT) stays over 5GHz running an AVX workload on all cores.

I note this because it also has a 3.8GHz base clock.
Isn’t the base clock the frequency that can be sustained on all cores regardless of workload, assuming cooling as specified by the TDP is used?
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,488
3,375
136
Isn’t the base clock the frequency that can be sustained on all cores regardless of workload, assuming cooling as specified by the TDP is used?
No, they will definitely clock above that if the workload allows even if you set PPT to 65W too.

It's the sustained all core clock rate at TDP in some worse case scenario. Probably some ideal code which perfectly blends FP and int.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,104
136
Well, TDP is Thermal Design Power, which can be sustained (at base clock?). Actual power consumption will be higher than TDP.

If it is not at base clock, then why specify any base clock at all? The CPU will be able to run at max clock forever, if sufficient cooling is available.
I don't know how it's determined now-a-days. Years ago it was a pretty screwy measurement, wrt clock frequencies. That and Intel and AMD used different parameters. Since I don't mind shelling out decent money on a HSF/AIO, I only care about sustained perf - mainly in games.
 
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