Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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poke01

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Mar 8, 2022
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That is a pretty significant Gen-on-Gen increase!

Higher than Apple has done in 4 years.
This gen on gen is very convenient for AMD comparisons since it’s every 2 years unlike for Intel, Apple and ARM which is every year.

AMD’s IPC improvements YoY are mediocre.

Zen 3 -> Zen 4: around 22 months, ~6.5% YoY. ~13% total. Max clock increase as well

Zen 4 -> Zen 5: around 22 months, ~8% YoY. ~16% total. No max clock increase.

Apples done ~7% IPC improvement in around 7 months, M3 -> M4 and a clock increase. However, the last four years have been slower for Apple but let’s see if they improve.

I expected better from AMD, since they are proper chip company but it looks like after the OG Zen, only Zen 3 stands out.
Also, that 16% was an average of apps and games listed. There are some apps and games that have seen obscene 40-60% uplifts, and NOT due to AVX-512.
Can we like wait for tests. I mean in tests without AVX-512 it won’t be that impressive. We already know CBR23 and CB 2024 scores for Strix Point. Nothing groundbreaking.
 
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poke01

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But I just read that Zen 5 had the lowest IPC increase other than Zen+! Perhaps I misread it because it actually has the second highest other than Zen 3.
Did you miss the part where I said the YoY gains over the last 4 years. If we take that metric and we should if we are comparing with others, AMD comes of as average.

Zen2 and Zen 3 show mighty impressive YoY gains.
 
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poke01

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I did some quick math and got the following:
View attachment 101191
This just proves AMD YoY IPC gains are mediocre after Zen 3. I’m not referring to total performance uplifts but IPC.

What I said still stands and Zen 5 is worse overall because of no clocks increase too.

All I am saying is AMD is not doing any better than Intel, Apple and ARM. No need to give AMD a special pat on the back.
 

StefanR5R

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Dec 10, 2016
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What I said still stands and Zen 5 is worse overall because of no clocks increase too.
They said in the press briefing pre Computex that there are clock increases in many workloads.

Edit,
All I am saying is AMD is not doing any better than Intel, Apple and ARM. No need to give AMD a special pat on the back.
What's Intel's, Apple's, and ARM's —for instance— 9654 competitor then? (Edit 2: I wanted to say, increasing mad performance by 8%/y is not the same as increasing middling performance by 8%/y. Similar to the argument by others in this thread when Apple's deceleration after their big M1 jump was brought up.)
 
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Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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This just proves AMD YoY IPC gains are mediocre after Zen 3. I’m not referring to total performance uplifts but IPC.

What I said still stands and Zen 5 is worse overall because of no clocks increase too.

All I am saying is AMD is not doing any better than Intel, Apple and ARM. No need to give AMD a special pat on the back.

Compared to Apple at least, AMD's CAGR in IPC is around twice that of Apple's (I get 5.5 6.23 CAGR IPC for Apple and 11.8 for AMD).

Edit: Starting in 2020 with Zen 3 and A14.
 
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poke01

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Compared to Apple at least, AMD's CAGR in IPC is around twice that of Apple's (I get 5.5 CAGR IPC for Apple and 11.8 for AMD).

Edit: Starting in 2020 with Zen 3 and A14.
yep thats right. Thats both impressive and sad lol. Impressive that Apple still holds the IPC lead after the slowdowns and sad that AMD still cannot beat Apple despite executing better than Apple.
 
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Hitman928

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yep thats right. Thats both impressive and sad lol. Impressive that Apple still holds the IPC lead after the slowdowns and sad that AMD still cannot beat Apple despite executing better than Apple.

For Intel, I get 8.19% in the same time frame. Better than Apple but still lagging AMD. Someone can do ARM if they want but it might be hard to find good data. From these quick calculations though (and a guess on the ARM side), I do think AMD is the leader in IPC CAGR for the last half decade or so (assuming latest IPC figures from announcements are correct). It's not a huge lead, but it's still pretty impressive. We'll see what happens going forward.
 

Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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Compared to Apple at least, AMD's CAGR in IPC is around twice that of Apple's (I get 5.5 6.23 CAGR IPC for Apple and 11.8 for AMD).

Edit: Starting in 2020 with Zen 3 and A14.

Those numbers are chosen to make AMD look relatively better. Go back to 2017 and you'd see a different story.

It would be interesting to compare what Apple's growth rate was when their IPC was where Zen 4 is. I'm sure they were doing a lot better than they are now, because it is more difficult to increase IPC the higher it gets.
 

Saylick

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Sep 10, 2012
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I would be interested in a chart showing IPC vs transistors used per core. Found it hard to get a good source of the data though... maybe my google-fu sucked on that day.
I’m sure someone has the xtor count compiled, but I’m not convinced it will be worth much vs IPC because not every transistor is made equal, e.g. a lot of transistors get used for AVX2 and AVX512 but those don’t translate to IPC particularly well. A core which focuses on general purpose compute and not on HPC or server, like Skymont, will naturally have higher “IPC/xtor” so the metric doesn’t mean much unless your feature set is equal.
 

RnR_au

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Jun 6, 2021
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I’m sure someone has the xtor count compiled, but I’m not convinced it will be worth much vs IPC because not every transistor is made equal, e.g. a lot of transistors get used for AVX2 and AVX512 but those don’t translate to IPC particularly well. A core which focuses on general purpose compute and not on HPC or server, like Skymont, will naturally have higher “IPC/xtor” so the metric doesn’t mean much unless your feature set is equal.
It wasn't for a comparison vs other companies, just to see if if there was a growth in the needed transistors for +1% IPC. ie is the curve roughly a straight line still, or is the transistor needs slowly growing to keep the IPC needs going? Perhaps percentage units wouldn't be optimal either, but rather an absolute performance unit would be better.

I was going to go back decades... maybe too hard to measure such a marketing thing as IPC across such a long time. A single benchmark might be better, but again there would be issues there too over the long haul.

If only eekBench was available back 20 years ago...
 

Saylick

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Sep 10, 2012
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It wasn't for a comparison vs other companies, just to see if if there was a growth in the needed transistors for +1% IPC. ie is the curve roughly a straight line still, or is the transistor needs slowly growing to keep the IPC needs going? Perhaps percentage units wouldn't be optimal either, but rather an absolute performance unit would be better.

I was going to go back decades... maybe too hard to measure such a marketing thing as IPC across such a long time. A single benchmark might be better, but again there would be issues there too over the long haul.

If only eekBench was available back 20 years ago...
Fwiw, a bunch of xtors get used to increase max clock speeds as well, and those don’t translate to IPC directly. If there’s one thing to compare, it might be total ST performance vs xtor count, but I suspect it will just roughly follow the Square Root Law, i.e. 2x xtors for 1.4x performance.
 

H433x0n

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Mar 15, 2023
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That would be the cheapest 16C halo SKU AMD has ever offered if they list MSRP in the $599-649 range. It’d be the cheapest generation in the Ryzen era.

3950X - $749 MSRP
5950X - $799 MSRP
7950X - $699 MSRP
9950X - $599 MSRP?

My official guess:

9600X - $249
9700X - $329 (this has to be below 7800X3D current price otherwise it won’t sell well)
9900X - $449
9950X - $599

Current Zen 4 pricing:

7600X - $199
7700X - $277
7800X3D - $339
7900X - $365
7950X - $430-500
 
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Philste

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Oct 13, 2023
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Even MLID warns possible sandbagging especially V-cache from AMD in his latest video:
I don't even know if V Cache with higher clocks / Voltages is a good thing. It's biggest strength, the low power consumption, is literally because of that limitations. So maybe ZEN5 X3D will be another like 5% faster but lose it's power consumption advantage? Doesn't sound like a good tradeoff for me. Also Both CCDs with V Cache is unnecessary.
 
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