The brits are in for a rough ride

pmv · Jun 13, 2024

WelshBloke said:
TBH I'll be watching purely with schadenfreude. I'm not enthused with Labour right now. Don't get me wrong I'm absolutly going to vote for them and they are going to be a lot better than the Tories but they are hardly exciting at the moment.

Yeah, election night itself will be the highpoint. I have very little optimism for what happens after that.

And even the joy of seeing this lot be thrown out is greatly reduced by the fact so many of them are quitting anyway. Election night will largely be a succession of fresh-faced non-entities that one's never heard of, losing on behalf of the Tories. Very remote chance of both Rees-Mogg and Sunak himself losing their seats, though. Just not sure it's worth staying up that long just on the off-chance (those seats always come in very late, because the safer Tory seats are all rural areas where it takes forever to gather in the ballot boxes, and I think Sunak's is the safest Tory seat in the country).

KMFJD · Jun 14, 2024

amazing, i believe (?) his district is the one in grey within the greater London Area?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1801333337383927933

pmv · Jun 15, 2024

Don't know if this is good news or bad. There's clearly a significant far-right faction of the electorate out there, but the FPTP electoral system means all they are likely to do is ensure the collapse of the right as a whole. After decades of the anti-Tory vote being split between Lib Dem and Labour, now the boot may be on the other foot.

Also, this bit surprises me. Who has Labour, Lib Dem or the Greens as their 'second choice' after Farage's lot?

...even if they were to stand down just 36% of their voters say they would switch to the Conservatives. Instead, 6% would vote Labour, the same proportion would go Lib Dem, 4% would switch to the Greens, and 12% to another party

General election 2024: Reform UK voters are not benign toward the Tories, they are belligerent | YouGov

Despite many Reform UK voters supporting the Tories in 2019, few could be convinced to vote Conservative this time round as they actively dislike them

yougov.co.uk

WelshBloke · Jun 15, 2024

pmv said:
Also, this bit surprises me. Who has Labour, Lib Dem or the Greens as their 'second choice' after Farage's lot?

There's that whole Brexit voting contingent that traditionally voted labour but voted Boris that ended the red wall thing.

pmv · Jun 15, 2024

WelshBloke said:
There's that whole Brexit voting contingent that traditionally voted labour but voted Boris that ended the red wall thing.

I guess, that might explain having Labour as second-choice, but the Lib Dems (whose sole fixed belief seems to be being anti-Brexit) or Greens?

Not sure whether to be depressed that a party like Reform has such a solid block of support, or pleased that it will split the right-wing vote.

WelshBloke · Jun 15, 2024

pmv said:
Not sure whether to be depressed that a party like Reform has such a solid block of support, or pleased that it will split the right-wing vote.

They are a bit of a protest vote for people who see (multi millionaire ex investment banker, career politician) Farage as a man of the people with their working class interests at heart. [insert saltoftheearthmorons.gif]

On the one hand its hilarious to see the Tories getting eviserated from both sides, on the other hand I'm really sick of seeing Farage banging on every time the telly goes on.

KMFJD · Jun 16, 2024

Love what is happening to the Tory's

How does the public feel about a Tory Wipe-Out — Public First - Data

Even if Labour does not win a massive majority on July 5th, that expectation has coloured early coverage of the election period. We’ve stopped asking “who do you expect to win” and instead are asking “how big do you expect them to win”. Perhaps in response to this, recent Conservative Party messagin

pfdatablog.com

This line was something:

We find that the public is relatively open to the concept of total electoral obliteration for the Conservatives. 46% of the public agreed with the slightly excessive statement that the Conservatives “deserve to lose every seat they have”, including around a quarter of their own 2019 voters (24%) , and a whole 64% of those who intend to vote Labour.

This seems bad for them

[DHT]Osiris · Jun 16, 2024

pmv said:
Sunak's out-of-touchness is beyond parody.

I wonder where he gets it from? I mean, his parents were a GP and a pharmacist, and, true, both those professions are in reality pretty well paid (certainly compared to my parents and the parents of most people I've known). As happened repeatedly with Thatcher, the "ordinaryness" of his background is greatly overstated because people don't seem to understand the actual income distribution of this country, especially in the past (Thatcher always got painted as some lower class interloper among the aristos of the MacMillan era Tory party, when in fact her father was a very wealthy businessman and local politician, and her family was far wealthier than that of either Edward Heath - son of a train-driver, and not-nearly as posh as his affected accent implied - or Harold Wilson)

But still wouldn't expect someone even from the affluent upper-middle-class to be _quite_ as out-of-touch with the real world as Sunak appears to be. There are titled aristocrats who have more of a 'common touch' than he does. Has he had to work at it, or were his grandparents actually even more upper-class?

According to wiki it seems he's yet another of the current top Tories who is descended from the Hindu Indians who the British used as the administrator class in Africa, and who went on to became the elite business class there - just as with Braverman and Patel. There's a weird irony/twist in the way the descendants of the people who once bossed the natives around to facilitate their exploitation by the British empire now have the same role domestically.

Every single politician should be required to live a year as a normie. Service job, you start like $1k in debt and you're paid minimum wage. You have to find a place to live, pay for your shit, etc. If you can't scrape yourself up legally, pay your debt, taxes, rent, bills, food, whatever, you don't get to be in govt.

WelshBloke · Jun 16, 2024

[DHT]Osiris said:
Every single politician should be required to live a year as a normie. Service job, you start like $1k in debt and you're paid minimum wage. You have to find a place to live, pay for your shit, etc. If you can't scrape yourself up legally, pay your debt, taxes, rent, bills, food, whatever, you don't get to be in govt.

It's not his background that's screwed him over, it's that he has no idea how to talk to people.
He could have said "Yes I had a comfortable upbringing. My parents worked hard to achieve a comfortable middle class life and I enjoyed the advantages of that. As such I'm committed to giving everyone in the UK that opportunity. Everyone should be able to succeed through hard work"
I guarantee that the Tory faithful would gobble that down.

[DHT]Osiris · Jun 16, 2024

WelshBloke said:
It's not his background that's screwed him over, it's that he has no idea how to talk to people.
He could have said "Yes I had a comfortable upbringing. My parents worked hard to achieve a comfortable middle class life and I enjoyed the advantages of that. As such I'm committed to giving everyone in the UK that opportunity. Everyone should be able to succeed through hard work"
I guarantee that the Tory faithful would gobble that down.

Probably, but you need the perspective of someone who grew up lower than middle class to know what to say and how to say it, and that's the whole point. Affluenza is a very persistent disease and it's hard to shake it if you don't get some perspective in your life, or if you aren't very, very empathetic toward other people.

mikeymikec · Jun 16, 2024

pmv said:
Also, this bit surprises me. Who has Labour, Lib Dem or the Greens as their 'second choice' after Farage's lot?

They're voting for UKIP: Therefore who says they have to make any sense at all.

+1 WelshBloke's point - the reason why the tories are doing so badly is because they've done next to nothing of value in power, all they've done is pander to the far-right, and pretty much everything that Starmer's Labour is doing right now is pretending to be the tories.

Logically the big two parties are giving the electorate a choice: A tactical vote or a burn-it-down vote.

Side note - it never ceases to amaze me how the incumbent routinely does fuck-all of use to the masses in power then when election time comes they spring out all the promises of what they will do rather than showcasing what they have done. Like children who left the homework until the night before / asked for an extension.

pmv · Jun 16, 2024

mikeymikec said:
Side note - it never ceases to amaze me how the incumbent routinely does fuck-all of use to the masses in power then when election time comes they spring out all the promises of what they will do rather than showcasing what they have done. Like children who left the homework until the night before / asked for an extension.

As has been repeatedly observed on numerous forums, even their attempts to make those promises come across as desperately making things up on the spot, few of which amount to more than a promising-sounding policy name. Exactly like Alan Partridge's efforts at securing a second series. The reality is they have nothing to say because they know they've achieved nothing and they don't even have any plans/ideas/vision for what to do next - they just desperately want to hang on to power for its own sake, along with those ministerial salaries and perks.

Just substitute "National service" for "monkey tennis".

biostud · Jun 17, 2024

pmv said:
Don't know if this is good news or bad. There's clearly a significant far-right faction of the electorate out there, but the FPTP electoral system means all they are likely to do is ensure the collapse of the right as a whole. After decades of the anti-Tory vote being split between Lib Dem and Labour, now the boot may be on the other foot.

Also, this bit surprises me. Who has Labour, Lib Dem or the Greens as their 'second choice' after Farage's lot?

General election 2024: Reform UK voters are not benign toward the Tories, they are belligerent | YouGov

Despite many Reform UK voters supporting the Tories in 2019, few could be convinced to vote Conservative this time round as they actively dislike them

yougov.co.uk

I think it is a problem in a dualistic political system as you also experience in th US.

We have had a far-right movement in Denmark 20 years ago and it has transformed a lot in Danish politics, but it has also shown to the voters that they are not better politicians than the moderate and when they can't deliver what they promise, and they have the same scandals and bickering in the parties, then the voters leave them again. And when you have 8-9 parties to choose between, you don't have to be a very loyal voter.

pmv · Jun 17, 2024

A D-day Disaster, dodgy leaflets and policies from thin air. Tory activists must avenge this debacle | Henry Hill

Grassroots Conservatives will have their time to assess the disaster that is this campaign. They must be unsparing, says Henry Hill of ConservativeHome

www.theguardian.com

This bit made me laugh

But perhaps most important, a surprise attack only works if you take the other side by surprise. The prime minister’s decision was such a well-guarded secret (or made in such a hurry) that when he announced it in Downing Street, he sprang a trap on his own party – and the result has been devastating for already-shaky Tory morale.

That's a rare feat, to pull off a surprise attack that surprises your own side rather than the enemy. Sunak turns "being bad at politics" into an art form. It's as if Operation Copperhead had been aimed at fooling the allies own forces rather than the Germans.

sdifox · Jun 19, 2024

To the shock of no one, squishy Sunak is projected to lose his own seat.

U.K. PM Sunak forecast to lose his own parliamentary seat, major poll suggests

Rishi Sunak is forecast to become the first sitting British prime minister to lose their own parliamentary seat at an election, a Savanta opinion poll showed.

www.ctvnews.ca

pmv · Jun 19, 2024

Policing minister’s wife reported to CPS over corporate espionage claims

Exclusive: Elizabeth Philp denies allegations that she used trade secrets gained from former employer

www.theguardian.com

Elizabeth Philp, 40, whose husband has called for “zero tolerance” to all crime, is accused of data-handling offences and unlawfully using confidential information from her former employer to set up a rival business.

I suppose, in fairness, nobody has been convicted (yet). But still, the bolded bit is ...ironic.

sdifox · Jun 19, 2024

pmv said:
Policing minister’s wife reported to CPS over corporate espionage claims

Exclusive: Elizabeth Philp denies allegations that she used trade secrets gained from former employer

www.theguardian.com

I suppose, in fairness, nobody has been convicted (yet). But still, the bolded bit is ...ironic.

Score! He can legally trader her in for a newer model!

Drach · Jun 19, 2024

mikeymikec · Jun 28, 2024

General election live: Rishi Sunak condemns racist term used about him by Reform UK canvasser

The prime minister said it "hurt" to think his daughters heard the racial slur being used about him.

www.bbc.co.uk

Can conservatives be any more predictable than to not care about inequality unless it affects them personally? Racism hurts Rishi Sunak's feelings, even though when the Conservative party is looking for more votes, what's their strategy? Embrace the far-right.

In other news, Rishi Sunak in 2019 claimed that he "wouldn't support Boris if he thought he was racist".:

pmv · Jun 28, 2024

mikeymikec said:
General election live: Rishi Sunak condemns racist term used about him by Reform UK canvasser

The prime minister said it "hurt" to think his daughters heard the racial slur being used about him.

www.bbc.co.uk

Can conservatives be any more predictable than to not care about inequality unless it affects them personally? Racism hurts Rishi Sunak's feelings, even though when the Conservative party is looking for more votes, what's their strategy? Embrace the far-right.

In other news, Rishi Sunak in 2019 claimed that he "wouldn't support Boris if he thought he was racist".:

I think the problem for them is that the plutocrat-xenophobe coalition is falling apart. Seems that changing circumstances means it's increasingly difficult for the plutocrats and the xenophobic racists to find things they can make common cause about.

Sunak's upset at that blimpish Reform member using the p-word about him is the first, and probably only, time I've felt a hint of sympathy for Tetchi. Doesn't matter how rich you become, they still aren't going to fully accept you.

sdifox · Jun 28, 2024

pmv said:
I think the problem for them is that the plutocrat-xenophobe coalition is falling apart. Seems that changing circumstances means it's increasingly difficult for the plutocrats and the xenophobic racists to find things they can make common cause about.

Sunak's upset at that blimpish Reform member using the p-word about him is the first, and probably only, time I've felt a hint of sympathy for Tetchi. Doesn't matter how rich you become, they still aren't going to fully accept you.

He's nouveau riche, of course they won't like him. Top it off with racism and you have to wonder why he is in the right wing camp. Self hate much?

mikeymikec · Jun 28, 2024

pmv said:
I think the problem for them is that the plutocrat-xenophobe coalition is falling apart.

If only. As long as you've got right wing rags in the UK run by billionaires, successfully telling the people that they need to hate poor people and foreigners, the Conservative party has to fuck up royally before things truly start to fall apart. Right now they're *probably* going to lose the election, but the plus side is that after that happens, they can blame Labour for everything they caused / should have fixed, then as soon as Labour falters (which they will as long as they're pandering to the right wing / conservatism in general), they'll be back in again.

IMO Labour's got the Democratic party bug: they think that all they have to do is be better than the tories and it'll all be good. I suppose if Starmer is exactly as his pandering bullshit looks then that's all that matters to them, but I not-so-secretly hope that beneath a veneer of pandering to the RWM that maybe they can slightly improve things over time rather than be the GQP-but-behind-the-curve tory party. I also fear that while the tories are behind the GQP curve, the Labour party is behind the tory curve. I also fear that "slightly improve things over time" is far too slow a trend of improvement and like as Pratchett once said, "a lie can make it around the world before the truth has got its shoes on", that the tories (or even worse right-wingers) will fuck things up far quicker than a vaguely centrist Labour can fix some things, and by the time that the mainstream parties can no longer deny the writing on the wall, the world will be on fire.

pmv · Jun 28, 2024

mikeymikec said:
If only. As long as you've got right wing rags in the UK run by billionaires, successfully telling the people that they need to hate poor people and foreigners, the Conservative party has to fuck up royally before things truly start to fall apart. Right now they're *probably* going to lose the election, but the plus side is that after that happens, they can blame Labour for everything they caused / should have fixed, then as soon as Labour falters (which they will as long as they're pandering to the right wing / conservatism in general), they'll be back in again.

IMO Labour's got the Democratic party bug: they think that all they have to do is be better than the tories and it'll all be good. I suppose if Starmer is exactly as his pandering bullshit looks then that's all that matters to them, but I not-so-secretly hope that beneath a veneer of pandering to the RWM that maybe they can slightly improve things over time rather than be the GQP-but-behind-the-curve tory party. I also fear that while the tories are behind the GQP curve, the Labour party is behind the tory curve. I also fear that "slightly improve things over time" is far too slow a trend of improvement and like as Pratchett once said, "a lie can make it around the world before the truth has got its shoes on", that the tories (or even worse right-wingers) will fuck things up far quicker than a vaguely centrist Labour can fix some things, and by the time that the mainstream parties can no longer deny the writing on the wall, the world will be on fire.

I don't disagree regarding the influence of the plutocrat-run media (most of the UK media has entirely abandoned any pretense at objectivity or proper journalism, it's just about pushing whatever line the owner of the paper or TV station has decided is in their interests that week - in the case of GBNews they don't even bother with the middlemen in the form of partisan presenters and pseudo-journalists, they just give the right-wing politicians their own shows to host, and have them interview each other).

All the same, though, it seems there's a fundamental split between different wings of the Conservative Party, which reflects clashes of real self-interest. They thought they could solve that with the Brexit vote, but instead it just made the divide even worse. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

Not sure why Farage hasn't yet eaten the Tory Party as Trump has the Republicans, but possibly it's just a matter of time. (Or, maybe, it reflects the different economic circumstances of the UK vs the US, that means the global plutocrats can't afford to accommodate the bigots and xenophobes to the same degree as they can in the US?)

pmv · Jun 28, 2024

sdifox said:
He's nouveau riche, of course they won't like him. Top it off with racism and you have to wonder why he is in the right wing camp. Self hate much?

You're not wrong, but I think it's the other way round - the racism is the more important factor. Though they kind of go together.

mikeymikec · Jun 28, 2024

The tory party could yet become desperate enough to turn to Farage, but I think that would be too great a humiliation for them. I think they would have to get relegated to third place, but then where would Reform be then? If Reform did better then Farage wouldn't bother going to the tories, and if Reform did worse then why would the tories want Farage?

IMO the only reason for any kind of split to be occurring in the tory party is because they don't have a figurehead for their personality cult: success is more important than scruples for the conservatives. I think it's more likely that they'll go back to Boris than Farage (which I don't think is likely either, but it might happen if the tories are either relegated to third place, or their second place is approximately as good as third place).

The brits are in for a rough ride

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