Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Poland was a highly aggressive nation in the interwar years. That in no way changes the fact that Germany and the Soviet Union concocted a plot in secret to conquer it without provocation and Russia was every bit as much on board as Germany.

Russia routinely claims it has never engaged in an aggressive war and it’s a laugh out loud lie.

How far Russian justifications about provocations (real or imagined) go back for the purposes of excusing them always invading everybody:


 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,573
5,095
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Poland was clearly threatening both German and USSR's territorial integrity by placing itself so close to their borders. If they were more polite, they would have summoned a pair of neutral countries from the depths of the abyss to share a border with, instead.
Don’t forget Poland’s skirt was too damned short for proper sensibilities.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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Poland was clearly threatening both German and USSR's territorial integrity by placing itself so close to their borders. If they were more polite, they would have summoned a pair of neutral countries from the depths of the abyss to share a border with, instead.

No need to go overboard in proclaiming Poland's eternal victim status. Everybody in that part of the world has been invading and seizing territory from each other (and massacring each other) for a long time.

Nationalism sucks, but it seems it's much more deeply-rooted and harder to transcend than the left traditionally assumed.


At the same time, leading Polish politicians of different orientations pursued the general expectation of restoring the country's pre-1772 borders. Motivated by this idea, Polish Chief of State Józef Piłsudski (in office from 14 November 1918) began moving troops east.

In 1919, while the Soviet Red Army was still preoccupied with the Russian Civil War of 1917–1922, the Polish Army moved into territories regarded by many Poles as Polish "Kresy". That year, they took most of present-day Lithuania and Belarus.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Two things can be true here.

1) There was a lot of war in Europe prior to the end of WW2 and virtually everybody was an aggressor at one point or another. Some more than others.

2) Since WW2 and then the fall of the Soviet Union/rise of the EU the territorial disputes that led to centuries of bloodshed have become largely moot. Except for one particular country who never joined up with the new dynamic and harbors the same impulses it always did to murder, steal, and oppress.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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SK has NK to be concerned with. They might not want to give away too much stuff.

SK is or has phased out a lot of things that they'd be willing to export like the K136 MLRS and their 203mm howitzers/shells. There is a long list of stuff they've retired and don't train on anymore that are just sitting in warehouse.
 
Nov 17, 2019
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RU had a lot of stuff mothballed too that they never thought they'd need. If Un gets bold as a result of his tea with Vlad, what will he do? It's probably unlikely he'd move on the south, but these days, who knows for sure what the goofballs will do from day to day.

And what is Vlad hoping to do in Nam?
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,503
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RU had a lot of stuff mothballed too that they never thought they'd need. If Un gets bold as a result of his tea with Vlad, what will he do? It's probably unlikely he'd move on the south, but these days, who knows for sure what the goofballs will do from day to day.

And what is Vlad hoping to do in Nam?
One thing is for sure more hotspots plays to his advantage so if can sweet talk Kim into stupid he will.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,703
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RU had a lot of stuff mothballed too that they never thought they'd need. If Un gets bold as a result of his tea with Vlad, what will he do? It's probably unlikely he'd move on the south, but these days, who knows for sure what the goofballs will do from day to day.

And what is Vlad hoping to do in Nam?

With NK shipping both stored and new munitions to Russia instead of bolstering their own stockpiles it's less of a concern.

Maybe he's stopping in to buy back some military equipment lol. Their relations have typically been pretty strong, unlike Vietnam's relations with China. This has not precluded the deepening of their relationship with the US which they recognize as the only power in the Pacific capable of countering China.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,569
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No need to go overboard in proclaiming Poland's eternal victim status. Everybody in that part of the world has been invading and seizing territory from each other (and massacring each other) for a long time.

Nationalism sucks, but it seems it's much more deeply-rooted and harder to transcend than the left traditionally assumed.

I was being facetious, drawing a corollary between the current 'political situation' with that one. I'm aware that's where the similarities end.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,569
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SK has NK to be concerned with. They might not want to give away too much stuff.
NK is largely irrelevant at this point. If NK wanted to attack SK, SK having ammunition isn't going to make much difference to everyone living there, and if NK did attack SK, they'd get obliterated whether SK had ammunition or not. SK probably has more to be concerned about from CN I'd wager than NK.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,945
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IMO Putin going to Vietnam is equal parts 'trying not to look like a pariah' and an attempt to talk them out of some old stockpiled Russian stuff, like they did with Algeria. And like Algeria, probably won't really work and instead Vietnam will start looking to the West. Russia's future as a provider is in doubt, and that's for stuff that doesn't work as well as American or European weapons to boot.

Vietnam sees where the wind is blowin. They are happy to integrate more with the West, pick up a lot of what China lost via their mix of fascist belligerence and pandemic restrictions. Maybe they can pull off what China did after some steller growth, make their naval and air assets on par with land forces.

The Vietnamese will humor Putin's hat in hand tour if only for old time's sake. If it bothers Xi, good.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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NK is largely irrelevant at this point. If NK wanted to attack SK, SK having ammunition isn't going to make much difference to everyone living there, and if NK did attack SK, they'd get obliterated whether SK had ammunition or not. SK probably has more to be concerned about from CN I'd wager than NK.

Assuming the Kim negotiated technology transfers that improve NK weapons then SK could be inclined to retaliate against Russia by helping Ukraine to kill a lot of Russians.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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Assuming the Kim negotiated technology transfers that improve NK weapons then SK could be inclined to retaliate against Russia by helping Ukraine to kill a lot of Russians.
Helping arm UK is one sideways gambit available to them to stick it to NK without provoking the Hermit Kingdom to something really violent and stupid.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Helping arm UK is one sideways gambit available to them to stick it to NK without provoking the Hermit Kingdom to something really violent and stupid.
North Korea isn't doing shit and they never will. Kim Jong Un knows that as long as he stays in his own country the rest of the world will leave him alone as removing him is absolutely not worth the cost because North Korea has nothing the rest of the world wants. That calculation changes as soon as he tries to start some shit with South Korea though, who most certainly do.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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North Korea isn't doing shit and they never will. Kim Jong Un knows that as long as he stays in his own country the rest of the world will leave him alone as removing him is absolutely not worth the cost because North Korea has nothing the rest of the world wants. That calculation changes as soon as he tries to start some shit with South Korea though, who most certainly do.
As Russia has proven, it is a great fallacy to expect humans to remain rational. For it is not in our nature to do so.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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As Russia has proven, it is a great fallacy to expect humans to remain rational. For it is not in our nature to do so.
I get your point but Russia miscalculated in a way where the outcome was more nebulous. For Kim it is ‘you attack South Korea and you die, personally’. To me that’s a lot clearer.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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North Korea isn't doing shit and they never will. Kim Jong Un knows that as long as he stays in his own country the rest of the world will leave him alone as removing him is absolutely not worth the cost because North Korea has nothing the rest of the world wants. That calculation changes as soon as he tries to start some shit with South Korea though, who most certainly do.
And all he really cares about is staying in power. He had his own half-brother murdered because he was getting a bit uppity.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,703
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The South Koreans are in possession of a fair amount of Russian military equipment and munitions that was supplied to them as payment of debts. AFAIK it's all held in deep storage having been superseded by native or license made stuff from the US.

I suspect those will be the first items to go if they loosen up their export restrictions. And it will deeply annoy the Russians.
 
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