Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,206
3,619
126
You tell me why a company that is supposed to compete as a foundry is still buying their silicon from their major competitor.
1) When they bought these wafers, Intel 4, Intel 3, and 20 A were all just a hope and dream. Intel was burned for years by refusing to use TSMC. Imagine what would happen if those nodes failed AND Intel wasn't using TSMC. Intel would have actually been doomed as you like to say. If that happened, then Intel would neither have a foundry or CPUs worth buying. This is and always was about risk reduction--avoid Intel's past mistakes.

2) Intel is now free to use whatever foundry is right for the right tile. Intel now buys the wafers from the best known node at the time the decisions are made. This means Intel can now use nodes that are the same or even better than AMD has access to (for cases when Intel's nodes beat TSMC in the future).

3) As a foundry, Intel's eggs are all in 18A. Using 3 nm class TSMC nodes has nothing to do with competing as these are not comparable nodes. Dozens of companies are signing up for 18A. That is when Intel starts competing with TSMC to be a foundry. This is like the Tesla is using a Ford van meme. Tesla is not competing with Ford in the van space. https://www.google.com/search?sca_e...kEHY3zBTcQtKgLegQIDRAB&biw=1500&bih=839&dpr=2

4) It drives up costs and drives down production for AMD as Intel takes TSMC's limited capacity away from AMD.

5) This frees up Intel to sell foundry services to outside companies and actually become a foundry for others. Without out this, Intel would have to outbid other companies for Intel's limited wafers. This would harm Intel's goal to become a foundry when wafers aren't available AND drive up costs of Intel's CPUs.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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4) It drives up costs and drives down production for AMD as Intel takes TSMC's limited capacity away from AMD.
TSMC could always increase their production capacity by investing in more cutting edge fabs once they know that Intel is gonna come back for more (for the de-risking aspect). It may also have the side effect of AMD helping Samsung get their foundry act together.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,206
3,619
126
TSMC could always increase their production capacity by investing in more cutting edge fabs once they know that Intel is gonna come back for more (for the de-risking aspect). It may also have the side effect of AMD helping Samsung get their foundry act together.
See Khato's response above. There is no ability for TSMC to ramp production as ASML is at capacity.
 

H433x0n

Golden Member
Mar 15, 2023
1,068
1,270
96
You tell me why a company that is supposed to compete as a foundry is still buying their silicon from their major competitor.
I get the disbelief that people had about this a year ago but since then they’ve launched Intel 4 / 3. The performance of Sierra Forest would suggest they’re at least in the same ballpark as TSMC’s latest nodes.

A decision made 3-4 years ago when there was a lot of uncertainty doesn’t reflect todays reality.
 
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Henry swagger

Senior member
Feb 9, 2022
444
281
106
1) When they bought these wafers, Intel 4, Intel 3, and 20 A were all just a hope and dream. Intel was burned for years by refusing to use TSMC. Imagine what would happen if those nodes failed AND Intel wasn't using TSMC. Intel would have actually been doomed as you like to say. If that happened, then Intel would neither have a foundry or CPUs worth buying. This is and always was about risk reduction--avoid Intel's past mistakes.

2) Intel is now free to use whatever foundry is right for the right tile. Intel now buys the wafers from the best known node at the time the decisions are made. This means Intel can now use nodes that are the same or even better than AMD has access to (for cases when Intel's nodes beat TSMC in the future).

3) As a foundry, Intel's eggs are all in 18A. Using 3 nm class TSMC nodes has nothing to do with competing as these are not comparable nodes. Dozens of companies are signing up for 18A. That is when Intel starts competing with TSMC to be a foundry. This is like the Tesla is using a Ford van meme. Tesla is not competing with Ford in the van space. https://www.google.com/search?sca_e...kEHY3zBTcQtKgLegQIDRAB&biw=1500&bih=839&dpr=2

4) It drives up costs and drives down production for AMD as Intel takes TSMC's limited capacity away from AMD.

5) This frees up Intel to sell foundry services to outside companies and actually become a foundry for others. Without out this, Intel would have to outbid other companies for Intel's limited wafers. This would harm Intel's goal to become a foundry when wafers aren't available AND drive up costs of Intel's CPUs.
Plus with lion cove onwards intel p cores can be fabbed on different nodes with ease
 
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lightisgood

Senior member
May 27, 2022
206
89
71
1) When they bought these wafers, Intel 4, Intel 3, and 20 A were all just a hope and dream. Intel was burned for years by refusing to use TSMC. Imagine what would happen if those nodes failed AND Intel wasn't using TSMC. Intel would have actually been doomed as you like to say. If that happened, then Intel would neither have a foundry or CPUs worth buying. This is and always was about risk reduction--avoid Intel's past mistakes.

2) Intel is now free to use whatever foundry is right for the right tile. Intel now buys the wafers from the best known node at the time the decisions are made. This means Intel can now use nodes that are the same or even better than AMD has access to (for cases when Intel's nodes beat TSMC in the future).

3) As a foundry, Intel's eggs are all in 18A. Using 3 nm class TSMC nodes has nothing to do with competing as these are not comparable nodes. Dozens of companies are signing up for 18A. That is when Intel starts competing with TSMC to be a foundry. This is like the Tesla is using a Ford van meme. Tesla is not competing with Ford in the van space. https://www.google.com/search?sca_e...kEHY3zBTcQtKgLegQIDRAB&biw=1500&bih=839&dpr=2

4) It drives up costs and drives down production for AMD as Intel takes TSMC's limited capacity away from AMD.

5) This frees up Intel to sell foundry services to outside companies and actually become a foundry for others. Without out this, Intel would have to outbid other companies for Intel's limited wafers. This would harm Intel's goal to become a foundry when wafers aren't available AND drive up costs of Intel's CPUs.

At one word, Pat reformed Intel as the modern chip company.
There are mainly two commitments.

1. intel products provides best design.
2. intel foundry provides best process.

It's easier said than done, however, Pat has been doing.
 
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ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,770
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1) When they bought these wafers, Intel 4, Intel 3, and 20 A were all just a hope and dream. Intel was burned for years by refusing to use TSMC. Imagine what would happen if those nodes failed AND Intel wasn't using TSMC. Intel would have actually been doomed as you like to say. If that happened, then Intel would neither have a foundry or CPUs worth buying. This is and always was about risk reduction--avoid Intel's past mistakes.

2) Intel is now free to use whatever foundry is right for the right tile. Intel now buys the wafers from the best known node at the time the decisions are made. This means Intel can now use nodes that are the same or even better than AMD has access to (for cases when Intel's nodes beat TSMC in the future).

3) As a foundry, Intel's eggs are all in 18A. Using 3 nm class TSMC nodes has nothing to do with competing as these are not comparable nodes. Dozens of companies are signing up for 18A. That is when Intel starts competing with TSMC to be a foundry. This is like the Tesla is using a Ford van meme. Tesla is not competing with Ford in the van space. https://www.google.com/search?sca_e...kEHY3zBTcQtKgLegQIDRAB&biw=1500&bih=839&dpr=2

4) It drives up costs and drives down production for AMD as Intel takes TSMC's limited capacity away from AMD.

5) This frees up Intel to sell foundry services to outside companies and actually become a foundry for others. Without out this, Intel would have to outbid other companies for Intel's limited wafers. This would harm Intel's goal to become a foundry when wafers aren't available AND drive up costs of Intel's CPUs.
Just to be clear, I never said Intel was doomed as a company, financially. They will most likely survive, although there is a question about how solid their profits and product line will be. I said they were "doomed" to be behind in performance for the foreseeable future in the desktop if ARL is mediocre or worse.
 
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SiliconFly

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2023
1,212
627
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At one word, Pat reformed Intel as the modern chip company.
There are mainly two commitments.

1. intel products provides best design.
2. intel foundry provides best process.

It's easier said than done, however, Pat has been doing.
Pat has done a wonderful job! It's just that they are not there yet. I think one or two more years should fix everything.

Just to be clear, I never said Intel was doomed as a company, financially. They will most likely survive, although there is a question about how solid their profits and product line will be. I said they were "doomed" to be behind in performance for the foreseeable future in the desktop if ARL is mediocre or worse.
Ha ha... "doomed"? They're already at par. If they pull ahead any further, amd is "doomed". And thats a fact.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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I think one or two more years should fix everything.
That's assuming AMD stumbles and isn't able to compete properly due to falling behind in either process or architecture.

Ha ha... "doomed"? They're already at par. If they pull ahead any further, amd is "doomed". And thats a fact.
No. Intel still has to prove that ARL-S is a decent upgrade over 14900K, with higher performance and lesser power consumption and heat generation. Those are big IFs considering Intel's consumer CPU progress thus far.

Let's recap:

MTL- inconsistent. Good in some things, regression in others. Remember the hype? Remember the multiple firmware updates to make it perform as intended? It was basically released as a work in progress, for pete's sake!

RPL-S and RPLR-S - Good luck with these coz even Intel themselves still has no clue about the root cause of the instability and degradation. And even when it works, you need to pump upwards of 300W for multicore workloads to make it perform well and beat Zen 4 in some benchmarks.

ADL-S/H/U and RPL-U - decent attempts but eclipsed by AMD products.

RPL-H/HX - Run pretty hot and thermally throttle unless the laptop maker has a great cooling system which would make the laptop heavier.

So far all we have are nice Intel slides and their claims. They need to execute before you can claim it's a fact that they are on par with AMD. I mean, come on. They are still behind in technology and power efficiency for their products ON the market right NOW. Wait till launch of LNL/ARL products, let them achieve sufficient market penetration and afterwards at least six months without any scandalous incidents to claim that Intel is finally on its way to achieving parity with AMD's technological progress or eclipsing them.

Temper your expectations, especially keeping in view Intel's recent past. Sierra Forest is not a client CPU. It's designed by a different team. It's a VERY expensive CPU so more effort was involved in making it work right. Intel has yet to prove that ARL will be competent in the client space and that it won't repeat any of the same mistakes plaguing MTL/RPL.
 
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,373
2,251
136
Raptor and Raptor Refresh were just over rated in terms of frequency. They have the same instability problems any overclocked CPU can have.
I'm running 5.5/4.3 on air with 100% stability at less than 1.3 volts.

Intel got a little crazy on the specs. K's should have been 5.8max and KS 6 max, ST, 5.6 and 5.8 MT and they would have been fine.

But yes, Intel needs to get back to sane power and cooling with ARL.
 

SiliconFly

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2023
1,212
627
96
Glue, super glue, and super super glue!

It certainly is all a lot more ambitious than AMD's chiplets but still largely unproven. It also requires big investments in packaging - which I think Intel have done. Time will tell.
"still largely unproven"? On which planet is this still "largely unproven"? Intel has released lots of tile based cpus till now (including server cpus). Even the upcoming Lunar Lake & Arrow Lake are also tile based. This is exactly like saying AMD chiplets are "still largely unproven". Just not right.
 
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KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,071
1,110
136
Surely most tile based until now have been low volume though?
And while technical impressive, low volume server parts are up there with exotic like HBM server GPUs, etc.

While I finally expect Intel no longer release Emergency Edition furnaces, desktop Arrow Lake does have a lot to prove. Meteor Lake was a pretty low volume part.
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,770
1,350
136
Nope. With tiles, they're ahead in technology already.
I dont really care about the "technology". A cpu is a black box to me. All I care about is power usage and performance. You could have argued that RL was essentially equal, at least in performance, (except for gaming --7800x3D), but that is in flux now because of the stability issues, and what the performance will be with whatever fix is ultimately done. In performance per watt, AMD is clearly ahead. ARL will close that gap, but nobody knows if they will catch up. Personally, even on an arguably better node than AMD, I think ARL will still use more power. And of course, they will be late to the party vs AMD, and have nothing for the next two years to offer except ARL-R.
 

AcrosTinus

Member
Jun 23, 2024
31
8
36
I dont really care about the "technology". A cpu is a black box to me. All I care about is power usage and performance. You could have argued that RL was essentially equal, at least in performance, (except for gaming --7800x3D), but that is in flux now because of the stability issues, and what the performance will be with whatever fix is ultimately done. In performance per watt, AMD is clearly ahead. ARL will close that gap, but nobody knows if they will catch up. Personally, even on an arguably better node than AMD, I think ARL will still use more power. And of course, they will be late to the party vs AMD, and have nothing for the next two years to offer except ARL-R.
The same doomsday stuff was said about AMD. They lost their fab, decades of shame and low performance but at the end it turned out well. Intel is not even close to the same situation because they have the better tech and software.

Let us wait for the benchmarks, It'll be a surprise for many.
 
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