Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

ivwshane · Jul 4, 2024

Anyone want to game this out with me?

What’s the worst case scenario?

Let’s say Biden dies before the election. Getting another candidate on the ballot is not going to happen. Voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Trump and they most definitely aren’t going to not vote. So they will either vote for a third party candidate on the ballot like RFK. Or the democrats will rally around one candidate and hope people write them in.

Alternatively, Kamala would assume the presidency and could hold off on the elections for maybe another year (more likely only 6 months). And have an election in November 2025.

If Trump were to die before the election, I’d imagine it would be, for Trump voters, RFK, or a write in that would have almost zero chance of winning.

Is there a worser case?

fskimospy · Jul 4, 2024

HomerJS said:
I thought the MSM was hiding it?

The nediab

spacejamz said:
You are right...those articles from the past five years were pretty much from only Fox News and other right leaning sources and were always called 'fake news' by the mainstream media (in those rare instances they even chose to acknowledge this issue).

However, in the past week, stories from sources close to Biden are now claiming his cognitive abilities have declined prior the debate. That was the point I was trying to make.

There were no stories like the one below prior to the debate (except from Fox News):

MSN

There are many current examples that claim the mainstream media has been 'gas-lighting' about Joe's current condition and yet you claim I live in a media bubble?

Yes, if you believe demonstrably false things like this.

Again, see the chart above and remember this covers a time where Trump is getting convicted of boatloads of felonies!

fskimospy · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Anyone want to game this out with me?

What’s the worst case scenario?

Let’s say Biden dies before the election. Getting another candidate on the ballot is not going to happen. Voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Trump and they most definitely aren’t going to not vote. So they will either vote for a third party candidate on the ballot like RFK. Or the democrats will rally around one candidate and hope people write them in.

Alternatively, Kamala would assume the presidency and could hold off on the elections for maybe another year (more likely only 6 months). And have an election in November 2025.

If Trump were to die before the election, I’d imagine it would be, for Trump voters, RFK, or a write in that would have almost zero chance of winning.

Is there a worser case?

Why wouldn’t they just vote for Kamala Harris?

brycejones · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Anyone want to game this out with me?

What’s the worst case scenario?

Let’s say Biden dies before the election. Getting another candidate on the ballot is not going to happen. Voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Trump and they most definitely aren’t going to not vote. So they will either vote for a third party candidate on the ballot like RFK. Or the democrats will rally around one candidate and hope people write them in.

Alternatively, Kamala would assume the presidency and could hold off on the elections for maybe another year (more likely only 6 months). And have an election in November 2025.

If Trump were to die before the election, I’d imagine it would be, for Trump voters, RFK, or a write in that would have almost zero chance of winning.

Is there a worser case?

If Biden died but won then Kamala would be President and a new vp would be nominated under the terms of the 25th. The next election would be in 2028.

ondma · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
Uhm, I was right that it was transitory. Core PCE is now under 3% without a recession or major policy change.

It stuck around a little longer than I thought but I had the concept right.

I suppose you could call it that, but it declined only because the Fed finally took action and raised interest rates.

eelw · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Is there a worser case?

People thinking why bother voting. Like really morons??? You want a repeat of 2016!!!!!

Brovane · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Anyone want to game this out with me?

What’s the worst case scenario?

Let’s say Biden dies before the election. Getting another candidate on the ballot is not going to happen. Voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Trump and they most definitely aren’t going to not vote. So they will either vote for a third party candidate on the ballot like RFK. Or the democrats will rally around one candidate and hope people write them in.

Alternatively, Kamala would assume the presidency and could hold off on the elections for maybe another year (more likely only 6 months). And have an election in November 2025.

If Trump were to die before the election, I’d imagine it would be, for Trump voters, RFK, or a write in that would have almost zero chance of winning.

Is there a worser case?

Technically you vote for a elector with the Electoral College. What would happen is you would vote for Biden and then the party would indicate to the electors who they should vote for. In this case it would probably be Harris and then they would work through the process of designating a new VP.

brycejones · Jul 4, 2024

ondma said:
I suppose you could call it that, but it declined only because the Fed finally took action and raised interest rates.

it's almost like the President doesn't control monetary policy.

K1052 · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
Why wouldn’t they just vote for Kamala Harris?

The simplest, clearest, and most likely outcome here.

manly · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Anyone want to game this out with me?

What’s the worst case scenario?

Let’s say Biden dies before the election. Getting another candidate on the ballot is not going to happen. Voters aren’t suddenly going to vote for Trump and they most definitely aren’t going to not vote. So they will either vote for a third party candidate on the ballot like RFK. Or the democrats will rally around one candidate and hope people write them in.

Alternatively, Kamala would assume the presidency and could hold off on the elections for maybe another year (more likely only 6 months). And have an election in November 2025.

If Trump were to die before the election, I’d imagine it would be, for Trump voters, RFK, or a write in that would have almost zero chance of winning.

Is there a worser case?

Not sure why you're even gaming this out, but there isn't really a worse case than POTUS croaking because we lose the election if that happens.

brycejones said:
it's almost like the President doesn't control monetary policy.

damn, the independent Fed did its job. Who wuda thunk it?

That poster who tried to say "neener, neener you were wrong" to fskimospy also blamed Joe Biden because his grandson graduated from college, but can't afford to buy a home yet... He also blamed Biden for Minnesota's state budget. 🤣

ivwshane · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
Why wouldn’t they just vote for Kamala Harris?

She’d have to be a write in but none of my scenarios exclude her.

***I’m assuming she’d have to be a write in but I actually don’t know how that works.

ivwshane · Jul 4, 2024

brycejones said:
If Biden died but won then Kamala would be President and a new vp would be nominated under the terms of the 25th. The next election would be in 2028.

Well that would be the question then wouldn’t it? Would Dems just run with her or would they try something else?

brycejones · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
Well that would be the question then wouldn’t it? Would Dems just run with her or would they try something else?

She is already plugged into the existing campaign and it's team. Anyone else has to build an operation from the ground up.

MrSquished · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
It’s like you’re living on a different planet. ‘Biden is old’ articles have been everywhere for the last five years!

Amazing the media bubble some people are in.

Imagine telling us what our eyes and ears can see Biden's physical decline and the hiding of Biden from anything but scripted events for so long is all just our imagination.

You are definitely a cultist. Fucking blue Anon. We have to deal with cognitive dissonance from the Trump party all the time and now we got to deal with these fucking Democratic cultists too, In our own party? You're wasting our time and going to cost us the election.

fskimospy · Jul 4, 2024

ivwshane said:
She’d have to be a write in but none of my scenarios exclude her.

***I’m assuming she’d have to be a write in but I actually don’t know how that works.

The box you would check would be Biden/Harris

FelixDeCat · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
Why wouldn’t they just vote for Kamala Harris?

The Giggler? No way Jose!

Indus · Jul 4, 2024

K1052 said:
Obama was the most gifted politician of my entire lifetime. Biden...is not and neither is Trump.

Gifted my ass..

didn't convince RBG to retire under him.
didn't take Republicans seriously.

He wasted it.. and we're in deep shit.

That's my #1 complaint about dems.. they're always a day late and a dollar short and bring a knife to a gunfight.

ivwshane · Jul 4, 2024

So then the worst case scenario isn’t even an issue then? Sure doesn’t seem like an issue to me.

MrSquished · Jul 4, 2024

Indus said:
Gifted my ass..

didn't convince RBG to retire under him.
didn't take Republicans seriously.

He wasted it.. and we're in deep shit.

That's my #1 complaint about dems.. they're always a day late and a dollar short and bring a knife to a gunfight.

The thing is Trump is a pea shooter of a candidate. Certainly no gun . Anyone mildly competent could end him. But we brought Biden to this fight. He's not even a knife. He's like a toothpick at this point.

Indus · Jul 4, 2024

MrSquished said:
The thing is Trump is a pea shooter of a candidate. Certainly no gun . Anyone mildly competent could end him. But we brought Biden to this fight. He's not even a knife. He's like a toothpick at this point.

Just get Biden to put Jon Stewart as VP, get Biden to resign and hand him the delegates.

Stewart can do it. He's a straight shooter, which we need.

But no we prefer to lose and give Trump the throne!

The only other alternative to Stewart is Al Franken.

spacejamz · Jul 4, 2024

fskimospy said:
The nediab

Yes, if you believe demonstrably false things like this.

Again, see the chart above and remember this covers a time where Trump is getting convicted of boatloads of felonies!

Of all the times they mentioned his age, how many were in a negative manner (like the Fox News stories), or were they 'gas lighting' saying he is as sharp as a tack and there are no age issues?

gothuevos · Jul 4, 2024

K1052 said:
I should do less is probably not the solution that people are looking for here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808923026206953582

And they need to stop leaking that he's taking serious advice from Hunter and Jill, if that's true.

Or does he not realize the optics of that, in addition to the conflict about whether he had a medical exam or not, need to work less, etc.

Not sure what was worse...the debate or the response the week afterwards.

MrSquished · Jul 4, 2024

Indus said:
Just get Biden to put Jon Stewart as VP, get Biden to resign and hand him the delegates.

Stewart can do it. He's a straight shooter, which we need.

But no we prefer to lose and give Trump the throne!

The only other alternative to Stewart is Al Franken.

There is no time for fantasy tickets that would cause more trouble than not. It has to be Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. And then a straight white male is VP, who is not from a West Coast or East Coast very Blue State. Simple as that. It's logistically the absolute best option, In regards to campaign cash and a ground game already in place with her, It's also the only way that honors the way the succession goes now, as she is next in line. To go over her and broker a convention would be a complete shit show. The way above is literally the only way.

MrSquished · Jul 4, 2024

I decided to pay for the guardian for a year up front and started reading it more.

Found this opinion piece to be dead on today. I feel bad for Biden and there is some sympathy there but there's a lot of anger though because he has put us at such a great risk with his gamble and then hiding his condition.

Who can we blame for Joe Biden's gamble? Angry Democrats are starting to point the finger | Emma Brockes

The president’s hubris in thinking he was capable of a second term could be catastrophic, says Guardian columnist Emma Brockes

www.theguardian.com

spacejamz · Jul 4, 2024

If there are any national/global emergencies going forward, please let the leaders of other countries to schedule anything before 8PM Eastern....

Biden tells Democratic governors he needs more sleep and plans to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m.

Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

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