Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
12,611
126
www.anyf.ca
Fun.



I don't think what happened is worthy of a class action lawsuit but I suppose if there is any proof that can be found that the leach pond failed due to negligence then maybe there is a case. Or if any insider trading happened within the exec board is what caused the stock to drop I suppose that could also be worthy? I don't really know the legalities of how this stuff works. Worth putting my name in either way so emailed them.

I will get $5 at some point in a few years if the lawsuit goes through.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,479
3,976
126
Fingers crossed for July rate hike.
I'd give that a zero percent chance of happening. I'd actually go with negative percent chance if that was a thing.

1) The fed almost never acts in the heat of a presidential election.
2) The PCE is at 2.6% which is below average (3.24% from 1960 until 2024) but a bit above the fed's goals (2%). PCE has been falling for quite some time. That is no indication that their rates are too low. In fact, it is a good sign that their rates are doing what the fed wants.
 
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IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,440
5,429
136
Note: I'm not a CPA. But I am 90% confident that as long as they are in the same year, that you can just write "Various" under the lines like Date Acquired and Date Sold. Then lump these all into one line on Form 8949. Yes, you have to add up how much you spent and how much you sold it for, but your finances should be done in something like Excel that makes math like that simple.

For example, see here:
If you use a electronic tax app like H&R Block this is recommended in the help text. You classify it as VAR-S or VAR-L based on whether it is short term gains (or losses) versus long-term (i.e. >1 year). It greatly simplifies data entry and has the same result in taxes owed as listing every transaction individually.

I'd give that a zero percent chance of happening. I'd actually go with negative percent chance if that was a thing.

1) The fed almost never acts in the heat of a presidential election.
2) The PCE is at 2.6% which is below average (3.24% from 1960 until 2024) but a bit above the fed's goals (2%). PCE has been falling for quite some time. That is no indication that their rates are too low. In fact, it is a good sign that their rates are doing what the fed wants.
Agreed. We've already gone from the low of 3.4% unemployment to 4.0% (1 month). If it stays 4% or higher for 2+ more months technically we have hit the Sahm rule and rate cuts will be more likely.
 

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,147
1,431
136
Amazon and Microsoft just keep on cruising to record highs.

At some point I need to start cashing out and move into Berkshire or EFT.

Those two are nearing 1/3 of my portfolio, awsome returns, just getting slightly out of balance.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
12,611
126
www.anyf.ca
Yikes Victoria Gold continues to drop. 85 cents lol.

No sense in selling though, just going to wait and see what happens. There's a chance this will not be the total end of the mine but it will set them back at least a year if more. They will most likely be fined, and then be required to do rehab work, and then repair everything so they can continue to operate. So all of that is going to cost 100's of millions.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,612
2,262
126
Yikes Victoria Gold continues to drop. 85 cents lol.

No sense in selling though, just going to wait and see what happens. There's a chance this will not be the total end of the mine but it will set them back at least a year if more. They will most likely be fined, and then be required to do rehab work, and then repair everything so they can continue to operate. So all of that is going to cost 100's of millions.
Looks like they are pricing in big dilution or even bankruptcy. Looking at the figures on Yahoo, looks like 40m in cash and 240m in debt (6x debt to cash), a 3% profit margin, and a supposed book value over $8.

Book value is hard to trust in a bankruptcy scenario, a lesson I learned in the financial crises of 2007/2008. This assumes they file. If not, then some might lower their cost basis and average down but that is extremely risky as you might go to zero anyway. Been there, done that in 1998.😩
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,457
12,611
126
www.anyf.ca
Yeah I have my hopes that they can recover but realistically I have a feeling they are going to file for bankruptcy. So the money I had in there is most likely a total loss. Well that's just the nature of the beast when dealing with stocks though. Been putting money into index funds for a bit now and slowly getting away from individual stocks.
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,985
3,170
136
Good luck on Victoria. If they only have the one mine, that's always on the risky side. Barrick seems to be making slow progress but gold has been up.

There seems to be some legit hope for a September rate cut.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,817
952
126
With the jump in Tesla the past two days I tried to sell a covered call at market prices. The app shows 53 bids but the order hasn't executed in the last 30 mins. Problem on my bank's side?

oh nevermind, I see the market closed at 1PM today.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,612
2,262
126
With the jump in Tesla the past two days I tried to sell a covered call at market prices. The app shows 53 bids but the order hasn't executed in the last 30 mins. Problem on my bank's side?

oh nevermind, I see the market closed at 1PM today.
Hopefully you didnt sell those calls, TSLA keeps setting new highs...despite falling sales.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,817
952
126
Hopefully you didnt sell those calls, TSLA keeps setting new highs...despite falling sales.
I did, on Friday. It had gone up a bit more and now it's even higher. Though the price I placed is one I wouldn't mind getting out at.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,669
5,396
136
I don't disagree. In general, I think that rates shouldn't be lower at all. Historically, even the current rates aren't really high. People just got used to the 0% interest.
Rates don't have a natural level, it is just economy/politics, not science. They need to be where they benefit the society most, which has been decided to be high employment, stable economy and an inflation ~2%.
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,408
977
136
Rates don't have a natural level, it is just economy/politics, not science. They need to be where they benefit the society most, which has been decided to be high employment, stable economy and an inflation ~2%.
Rates don't have a natural level but inflation of 2% is natural? Who decided that it's the natural number? Who decides how to calculate inflation and the so-called core inflation? Maybe we need a transitioning period of even lower inflation to offset the insane amount of inflation that we've already seen? Inflation, in the US, is also still at around 3.3% last I checked.

Low rates have caused a huge housing price hike around the world, and the 0% rates have only stayed so long because of pressure from Trump (at the time) and others - including those nice claims of "transitory" inflation. Now that the damage is done, I'm not sure what the solution will be - but pumping more free money doesn't seem like the correct solution to me.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,479
3,976
126
Rates don't have a natural level, it is just economy/politics, not science. They need to be where they benefit the society most, which has been decided to be high employment, stable economy and an inflation ~2%.
There is a concept of a natural interest rate (also called a neutral interest rate, or r-star). It is the theoretical interest rate where the economy is at full employment, policy is stable (neither contractionary or expansionary), and inflation is low and stable. Basically, it is the rate needed for a good strong economy at its full potential without inflation problems.

The natural interest rate is a moving target over time based on many factors like monetary supply, business disruptions, etc. But, there is a given natural interest rate at any given time. The problem is that we don't understand economics well enough yet to directly calculate this natural interest rate. We can only model it and different models have slightly different results. And we all know models are based on data that is either out of date or hard to measure exactly.

For the Euro area, click on the "HOLSTON-LAUBACH-WILLIAMS ESTIMATES" tab in the link below.
 
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