News Intel 2Q24 Financial Results

Page 10 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

poke01

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2022
2,094
2,626
106
I have this feeling, a distant possibility that Gelsinger might be some sort of a Trojan Horse, brought in with the guise of "saving Intel" but the real goal is to destroy.
Nah it’s just Intel shooting itself in the foot, been happening since the 2000s.

They have no goal like AMD or Apple or Nvidia. They just throw everything at the wall and see what sticks and therefore fail at everything they do.

Nvidia had a goal of GPU compute and CUDA over the last decade.

AMD focused on Zen over past decade and excelled there.

Apple focused on taking their CPUs to the next level and to replace Intel on the Mac.

Such tasks require good management and execution which Intel has been lacking over the past decade.
 

DavidC1

Senior member
Dec 29, 2023
831
1,307
96
Nah it’s just Intel shooting itself in the foot, been happening since the 2000s.
Then he doesn't really have control or is panicking, because if you read about the decisions he made in previous companies as CEO, they were stellar, to put it simply. This is a flop almost 180 degrees opposite if the reddit talks are true. Of course, it's conjecture, but still.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
685
1,111
96
I have this feeling, a distant possibility that Gelsinger might be some sort of a Trojan Horse, brought in with the guise of "saving Intel" but the real goal is to destroy.
I don't think he's a trojan horse. Rather that he's blinded by the path chosen and (he and management) insulated from reality.

Remember the "AMD in rear view" quote. Or the "PC TAM will grow to 300M in 2023 because people will buy 2 computers. Why I think that? Because my gen z daughter has bought two computers for herself".

The interview they did after the financial results was shocking, to say the least.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
2,742
4,664
136
Have they upgraded it? Originally it was a small reduction in performance for a greater reduction in costs (less fab steps).

Pretty sure it was always a small bump in performance and power. It had a small regression in logic and cache area, which for some reason people made a big deal out of and decided it was "inferior" as a result.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
3,533
5,095
96
Pretty sure it was always a small bump in performance and power. It had a small regression in logic and cache area, which for some reason people made a big deal out of and decided it was "inferior" as a result.
Yeah.
Granted, no N3b part saw SRAM density bumps actual so they're equal nodes more or less.
 

ikjadoon

Senior member
Sep 4, 2006
218
472
146
Remember the "AMD in rear view" quote. Or the "PC TAM will grow to 300M in 2023 because people will buy 2 computers. Why I think that? Because my gen z daughter has bought two computers for herself".

The interview they did after the financial results was shocking, to say the least.

I forgot about that. Intel predicted 275M to 290M PC sales in 2023 w/ a whole spiel that Intel is always right.

Our team at Intel has a strong history of accurately forecasting Intel's PC TAM. In fact, over the past 7 years, our forecast have had accuracy within plus/minus 5% with 2 exceptions. -

...

I think we can argue 300 million plus/minus. All I want to get across is our point of view and have a debate with you on this, but it's really about we believe we're in a growth business, and we're in a growth category.


Christoph Schell, Chief Commercial Officer




2023 TAM
Intel's prediction: 270M to 295M (283M mid-point at 100%)
Actual - Jon Peddie: 229M (81%)
Actual - Gartner: 242M (86%)
Actual - Canalys: 247M (87%)
Actual - Counterpoint: 247M (87%)
Actual - IDC: 260M (93%)

Counterpoint sources: 56.7M + 60.6M + 64.8M + 65.1M

8% to 19% off is not ideal though I'm sure these all these firms count differently. Intel can't blame the Ukraine invasion nor the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023.

Does Intel have an inventory glut now in 2024, because Intel grossly overproduced 2023?

Revenue remains below consumption as inventory positions tied to previous supply constraints are worked down. We expect double-digit sequential revenue growth through the second half as customers return to more normal buying patterns. Now, turning to our Q3 guidance. Weaker spending across consumer and enterprise markets, especially in China, and continued focus on AI server investments in the cloud have reduced our TAM expectations for 2024.

As a result, customer inventory levels are elevated. We expect customers to reduce inventory over the second half of the year, along with the continued modest negative impact from export controls. These market dynamics should result in below seasonal revenue growth in Q3, with the client business flat to down and modest growth in data center and edge markets. With an expectation of healthier inventory positions exiting the quarter and the continuation of an enterprise refresh cycle, we should see revenue growth at the high end of seasonal in the fourth quarter.

So seemingly everyone that wildly doubted Intel's "legendary" TAM estimate had the right bloody idea. Christoph Schell, will there be a mea culpa here?

I am now leaning towards suggestions that Intel needs a clean C-Suite, because exaggerated TAM calculations are unforced errors when your company's finances are teetering on a knife's edge.

I think a lot of investors probably are a little surprised at the 300 million unit long-term TAM number. How do you assess how much demand got pulled forward during COVID and thus now kind of sits behind this 6.5-year upgrade cycle?
Timothy Arcuri - UBS
So look, I, for one, don't believe that demand was pulled forward as much as category dynamics have changed. I really believe that the case in point to support that is my daughter, Maya, okay? I'll make that point again. So it's really -- I mean, she's a proxy for me for there's a new customer segment that was not really looking at PCs before.
Christoph Schell, Chief Commercial Officer
 
Last edited:

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,479
3,380
106
So seemingly everyone that wildly doubted Intel's "legendary" TAM estimate had the right bloody idea. Christoph Schell, will there be a mea culpa here?

I am now leaning towards suggestions that Intel needs a clean C-Suite, because exaggerated TAM calculations are unforced errors when your company's finances are teetering on a knife's edge.

Here is some more on Intel the precision and scientific approach of Intel forecasts for things such as TAM, fab capacity planning - daughter Maya:
(thanks to SemiAnalysis for the summary)

On penetration. There is huge upside for us in emerging markets. I have myself lived in Asia for many years, Middle East as well. That's the areas where we see growth, and this is where we expect growth to come. And then maybe if I bring all of this a little bit together, a little bit of a personal anecdote, I'll talk about my daughter, Maya. She's 20 years. She's in college, a junior in college. And she always had access to PCs, given what I'm doing for a job -- for a living, and she never looked at them until COVID hit. And all of a sudden, she understood that consuming education content on a tablet, consuming it on a mobile phone is really not cool.

And so she lobbied me not to buy her 1 laptop but 2 because she was really concerned about not being able to dial in. So she wanted to have -- if 1 unit went down, she wanted to have 2. And that, I think, is a customer segment that was not looking at PCs prior to the pandemic and is now a very core part of what we are planning with. So I hope that gives you a bit more color and explains why we are bullish about the growth.

Christoph Schell, Chief Commercial Officer
 
Last edited:

majord

Senior member
Jul 26, 2015
491
622
136
I don't think he's a trojan horse. Rather that he's blinded by the path chosen and (he and management) insulated from reality.

Remember the "AMD in rear view" quote. Or the "PC TAM will grow to 300M in 2023 because people will buy 2 computers. Why I think that? Because my gen z daughter has bought two computers for herself".

The interview they did after the financial results was shocking, to say the least.

In that very interview , he stated current core ultra (MTL) is a "leadership product" today . if he's that delusional (or lying?) , how can you trust his future outlook.
 

RanFodar

Member
May 27, 2021
26
32
61
Remember how Mitsubishi is not one company but out of many? Great companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nikon, Mitsubishi Motors (at least here in ASEAN), etc. I kind of wish Intel will go on that path. Too many bureaucratic infighting inside their house will not stand, unless a *semblance* of a miracle is performed.
 
Reactions: Ghostsonplanets

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,322
5,351
136
Here's the past 20 years of Intel: Terrible designs propped up(IOW shielded) by phenomenal process technology, which got exposed when they lost the process lead.
That's some wild revisionism. Conroe and Nehalem were great architectures- Conroe was on the same 65nm process as the awful Cedar Mill, but completely blew it out of the water. And Nehalem was great even before the shrink to 32nm.
 
Jul 27, 2020
19,823
13,588
146
Anyone remember what happened after Haswell? Broadwell got delayed and then the Skylake era began that just refused to end until Comet Lake was superseded by Rocket Lake for a brief period. What the heck happened at Intel during this time? I've read online posts from disgruntled employees that the Head of TMG Sohail was given full power by BK and then he proceeded to hire cheap talent from low class universities, driving the good talent away in the process. How much truth in that?
 
Reactions: adamge

reaperrr3

Junior Member
May 31, 2024
14
37
51
In that very interview , he stated current core ultra (MTL) is a "leadership product" today . if he's that delusional (or lying?) , how can you trust his future outlook.
The term "leadership product" is actually used quite frequently, by AMD too, including for products that are not the best in their category.

It's more like marketing slang for "it's close enough to the best to be relevant", it doesn't really mean that it's the "leading" aka best product in its category.
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,408
977
136
Here's the past 20 years of Intel: Terrible designs propped up(IOW shielded) by phenomenal process technology, which got exposed when they lost the process lead.
20 years is way too long. They've been trash basically since Skylake (which itself was decent), although Broadwell was also kind of a dud.
 

BorisTheBlade82

Senior member
May 1, 2020
680
1,069
136
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |