Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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Tigerick

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As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.



Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

ModelCode-NameDateTDPNodeTilesMain TileCPULP E-CoreLLCGPUXe-cores
Core Ultra 100UMeteor LakeQ4 202315 - 57 WIntel 4 + N5 + N64tCPU2P + 8E212 MBIntel Graphics4
?Lunar LakeQ4 202417 - 30 WN3B + N62CPU + GPU & IMC4P + 4E012 MBArc8
?Panther LakeQ1 2026 ??Intel 18A + N3E3CPU + MC4P + 8E4?Arc12



Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Meteor LakeArrow Lake (20A)Arrow Lake (N3B)Lunar LakePanther Lake
PlatformMobile H/U OnlyDesktop OnlyDesktop & Mobile H&HXMobile U OnlyMobile H
Process NodeIntel 4Intel 20ATSMC N3BTSMC N3BIntel 18A
DateQ4 2023Q1 2025 ?Desktop-Q4-2024
H&HX-Q1-2025		Q4 2024Q1 2026 ?
Full Die6P + 8P6P + 8E ?8P + 16E4P + 4E4P + 8E
LLC24 MB24 MB ?36 MB ?12 MB?
tCPU66.48
tGPU44.45
SoC96.77
IOE44.45
Total252.15



Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake



As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)



 

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OriAr

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DrMrLordX said:
So this was FUD too?

Page 469 - Discussion - Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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@OriAr

Since when? That's news to me.
Click to expand...

SYS-122C-TN | 1U | SuperServer | Products | Supermicro

1U CloudDC with DC-MHS, 12 hot-swap 2.5” NVMe/SATA/SAS bays, 3 PCIe 5.0 x16/x8 slots and 2 PCIe 5.0 x16
www.supermicro.com
This is just one system for example, Supermicro has a bunch of them available in varying configs.
GNR-AP is also launching this month iirc, at this point I am fairly confident Intel 3 is yielding very well.
 
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H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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OriAr said:

SYS-122C-TN | 1U | SuperServer | Products | Supermicro

1U CloudDC with DC-MHS, 12 hot-swap 2.5” NVMe/SATA/SAS bays, 3 PCIe 5.0 x16/x8 slots and 2 PCIe 5.0 x16
www.supermicro.com
This is just one system for example, Supermicro has a bunch of them available in varying configs.
GNR-AP is also launching this month iirc, at this point I am fairly confident Intel 3 is yielding very well.
Click to expand...

The Supermicro systems aren't available yet, they are listed but are "coming soon". Not sure when the projected date of availability is but I imagine it's not too far out.
 
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OriAr

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Feb 1, 2019
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Hitman928 said:
The Supermicro systems aren't available yet, they are listed but are "coming soon". Not sure when the projected date of availability is but I imagine it's not too far out.
Click to expand...

SYS-122H-TN | 1U | SuperServer | Products | Supermicro

1U Hyper with 8 hot-swap 2.5" NVMe/SAS/SATA bays and 3 PCIe 5.0 x16 + 1 PCIe 5.0 x16 AIOM slot
www.supermicro.com
This one is seemingly available now, I imagine the rest will come sooner rather than later.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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OriAr said:

SYS-122C-TN | 1U | SuperServer | Products | Supermicro

1U CloudDC with DC-MHS, 12 hot-swap 2.5” NVMe/SATA/SAS bays, 3 PCIe 5.0 x16/x8 slots and 2 PCIe 5.0 x16
www.supermicro.com
This is just one system for example, Supermicro has a bunch of them available in varying configs.
GNR-AP is also launching this month iirc, at this point I am fairly confident Intel 3 is yielding very well.
Click to expand...

Hitman928 said:
The Supermicro systems aren't available yet, they are listed but are "coming soon". Not sure when the projected date of availability is but I imagine it's not too far out.
Click to expand...

I found the SuperMicro SYS-112C-TN, but I don't see anywhere to actually buy one? There are two other Sierra Forest server SKUs listed as "coming soon".

The closest I found was this:

Supermicro SYS-112C-TN CloudDC SuperServer Custom Configurator | IT Creations

www.itcreations.com

They let you request a quote, but click/buy/ship? Nah.

It's like IceLake-SP all over again!
 
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Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
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DrMrLordX said:
So this was FUD too?

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Click to expand...
The incorrect interpretation of what's being said in the quoted source is, yes.

All the source post is saying is that if 3 hours are spent performing optical inspection of an Intel 3 EUV layer with the parameters provided in the table then a 1cm^2 die which 'passes' that optical inspection would be at least 62-63% yield rate for that layer. The post says absolutely nothing about actual Intel 3 yield rates.
 
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H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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OriAr said:

SYS-122H-TN | 1U | SuperServer | Products | Supermicro

1U Hyper with 8 hot-swap 2.5" NVMe/SAS/SATA bays and 3 PCIe 5.0 x16 + 1 PCIe 5.0 x16 AIOM slot
www.supermicro.com
This one is seemingly available now, I imagine the rest will come sooner rather than later.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure it's not actually available either. If you look at the older models, you can actually configure and buy them from the website. Even that one you linked, all you can do is put down your info to be contacted for pricing. I'm not convinced it's a yield issue though, very well could just be that Intel 3 is still ramping and all available stock is going straight to the cloud companies (Google, Amazon, etc.) for the time being.
 
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gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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Khato said:
Okay. Yeah, AMD's Data Center revenue and margins are increasing but it's entirely due to their small piece of the AI pie.

If you instead go with the Mercury Research figures for market share and revenue of x86 server CPU between Q1 2024 and Q1 2023... AMD market share increased from 18% to 23.6% for a 31.1% increase while revenue share increased from 27.8% to 33% for an 18.7% increase. Yeah, I know, kinda puts a damper on the favored narrative that AMD is dominating in the server space that their market share is increasing more than their revenue share. aka, AMD server ASPs are decreasing while Intel server ASPs are increasing.
Click to expand...
I'm confident in the accuracy of the narrative. Some people feel the need to correct the record but MI300 isn't causing Intel to reduce their operating margin and lower their DC forecast. That's Epyc.

Moreover the Mercury estimates you give are from a quarter earlier. Notably missing the quarter where INTC dropped 50%. Mainly on the foundry failures but also due to their revised, downward, outlook.

Epyc is at 36±2% x64 server market revenue in Q2 with a 38% YoY growth.
 
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K

Khato

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DrMrLordX said:
It places an upper bound on what yields could be for the process, if in fact the statement is true.
Click to expand...
No it most definitely does not.

I see no reason to doubt the statement is true, but it's just based on published metrics for the Intel 3 process. And it's just providing an example of the problem with optically scanning for defects on EUV layers.

Let me try to explain again. After all the lithography steps are taken for a given EUV layer the wafer can be optically scanned for defects. The statement is that if 3 hours are spent performing that optical scan and no defects are found, that optical scan only provides confidence that there are no defects in 62-63% of the 1cm^2 die. If less time was spent on the optical scan the confidence rate would be lower. More time spent would give a higher confidence rate. It says nothing about actual Intel 3 defect density.
 
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A

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
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Khato said:
If you instead go with the Mercury Research figures for market share and revenue of x86 server CPU between Q1 2024 and Q1 2023... AMD market share increased from 18% to 23.6% for a 31.1% increase while revenue share increased from 27.8% to 33% for an 18.7% increase. Yeah, I know, kinda puts a damper on the favored narrative that AMD is dominating in the server space that their market share is increasing more than their revenue share. aka, AMD server ASPs are decreasing while Intel server ASPs are increasing.
Click to expand...

The most elementary maths tell you that if you hold 33% of the revenue for 23.6% volume marketshares it means that your ASP is 33/23.6 = 39.8% higher than the one of your competitor.
And since the revenue % increase without the volume % matching this number it also means that your competitor is selling at prices increasingly lower, if that s what you re calling higher ASPs for Intel so be it.
 
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Khato

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Abwx said:
The most elementary maths tell you that if you hold 33% of the revenue for 23.6% volume marketshares it means that your ASP is 33/23.6 = 39.8% higher than the one of your competitor.
And since the revenue % increase without the volume % matching this number it also means that your competitor is selling at prices increasingly lower, if that s what you re calling higher ASPs for Intel so be it.
Click to expand...
Yes, it is simple math. AMD went from 27.8/18 = 54.4% higher ASP to 33/23.6 = 39.8% higher ASP. Nowhere did I claim that Intel's ASPs are higher than AMD. Though I should have said that Intel server ASPs are increasing more than AMD serverASPs over that time period rather than stating that AMD server ASPs are decreasing. I'd guess that they are, but that can't be determined by just the percentage numbers.
 
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A

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
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Khato said:
Yes, it is simple math. AMD went from 27.8/18 = 54.4% higher ASP to 33/23.6 = 39.8% higher ASP. Nowhere did I claim that Intel's ASPs are higher than AMD. Though I should have said that Intel server ASPs are increasing more than AMD serverASPs over that time period rather than stating that AMD server ASPs are decreasing. I'd guess that they are, but that can't be determined by just the percentage numbers.
Click to expand...

Why are you tricking the numbers.?.

18% is the evolution, i explicitely said revenue/marketshare in volume.

But you got right in a way, if AMD revenue increased by 18% in a same revenue TAM and that Intel has the same volume marketshare it means that Intel s prices decreased by 1 - 1/1.18 = 15.2% lower ASP.
 
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Khato

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Abwx said:
Why are you tricking the numbers.?.

18% is the evolution, i explicitely said revenue/marketshare in volume.

But you got right in a way, if AMD revenue increased by 18% in a same revenue TAM and that Intel has the same volume marketshare it means that Intel s prices decreased by 1 - 1/1.18 = 15.2% lower ASP.
Click to expand...
I'm not. According to the Mercury Research data, AMD's server unit share in Q1 2023 was 18% - https://www.anandtech.com/show/21392/amd-hits-record-high-share-in-x86-cpus-in-q1-2024
 
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D

DavidC1

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I agree it's EPYC that's main killer for Intel's DC group. AI is just cherry on top.

Emerald Rapids performance only allows at best mid-range selling figures. The juicy profits increase greatly as you go up the stack, so Intel is missing out on a big portion of it.

Based on their revenue vs spending for DC group, 33% decline in revenue is enough to get their profits to become zero.

Sierra Forest: Even if it is successful, it hasn't been in the market for long enough to make big enough financial market. Plus it's not the main chip so it further limits the impact.

Granite Rapids can't come fast enough. But with news such as Qualcomm exploring to buy Intel division, their main divisions suggest that Intel's conditions may be even worse than the already gloomy news is.
 
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A

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
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Khato said:
I'm not. According to the Mercury Research data, AMD's server unit share in Q1 2023 was 18% - https://www.anandtech.com/show/21392/amd-hits-record-high-share-in-x86-cpus-in-q1-2024
Click to expand...

You divide the revenue share by the volume share and you ll know what is the ASP ratio in respect of the competition.

If one get say 40% revenue share for only 20% volume share it means that his ASP is 2x the one of its competitor.

I did the math for 33% revenue share and 23.6% volume share , and that means almost 40% higher ASP than Intel, what is difficult to understand here..?

And if your revenue increase by 18% without your volume increasing in a market whose total volume and revenue are constant then it means that in the same time your competitor s ASP has decreased by 15.2%, that s also basic maths.
 
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J

jpiniero

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Oct 1, 2010
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DavidC1 said:
Granite Rapids can't come fast enough. But with news such as Qualcomm exploring to buy Intel division, their main divisions suggest that Intel's conditions may be even worse than the already gloomy news is.
Click to expand...

The problem is that the Board wants to do literally anything but spin off the foundry.
 
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D

DavidC1

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Dec 29, 2023
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Intel's DC division went from $6 and $4.6 billion in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 to $3 and $3 billion in Q1 and Q2 of 2024.

$10.6 billion to $6 billion. That's a huge loss.

Do you know with AMD reporting MI300 selling at $1 billion a quarter it alone has 33% of Intel's entire DC business?
 
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DokiDoki

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Aug 21, 2024
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AMD's DC revenue only looks impressive because the MI300 props it up by contributing 40% of the revenue.

Intel DC stuff is almost entirely Xeons, which isn't so hot at the moment.

And then you have NVIDIA whose Gaming revenue is roughly the same as AMD's DC revenue.

Give it a few more quarters - the AI hype will die down, and AMD will have the same hard time as Intel selling mostly Epycs.
 
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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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DokiDoki said:
AMD's DC revenue only looks impressive because the MI300 props it up by contributing 40% of the revenue.

Intel DC stuff is almost entirely Xeons, which isn't so hot at the moment.

And then you have NVIDIA whose Gaming revenue is roughly the same as AMD's DC revenue.

Give it a few more quarters - the AI hype will die down, and AMD will have the same hard time as Intel selling mostly Epycs.
Click to expand...
Considering what I know about Genoa, and what Turin is supposed to be, Intel may have a problem for years to come, especially if they don't fix their financial problems soon.
 
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DokiDoki

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Markfw said:
Considering what I know about Genoa, and what Turin is supposed to be, Intel may have a problem for years to come, especially if they don't fix their financial problems soon.
Click to expand...
EMR is competitive with Genoa at similar core counts, and Granite Rapids will bring performance and core count parity with Turin.

Intel has nothing to worry about.
 
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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
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DokiDoki said:
EMR is competitive with Genoa at similar core counts, and Granite Rapids will bring performance and core count parity with Turin.

Intel has nothing to worry about.
Click to expand...
Just curious, you have benchmarks to back that up ? I have not seen anything.
 
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