Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,904
8,998
136
New York Times FINALLY posts article asking the question is Trump too old, too incoherent, utterly losing it. The reader comments are all over it. Don't miss them, order them by Reader Picks.

This link will get you past the NYT paywall for 14 days, i.e. until Sept. 24, 2024:

News Analysis

As Debate Looms, Trump Is Now the One Facing Questions About Age and Capacity​

With President Biden no longer in the race, former President Donald J. Trump would be the oldest person ever to serve in the Oval Office. But his rambling, sometimes incoherent public statements have stirred concern among voters.

 
Reactions: MrPickins

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,548
14,241
136
It really struck me when I hear pundits saying Trump is basically an entertainer. Sort of like letting an old b movie actor become president. What could go wrong?
It's been pointed out before, he's treated it all like a reality show or pro-wrestling since the beginning.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,277
6,444
136
I wonder if crude will continue its slide over the next few months. Cheaper gas may lessen fears of inflation.

 
Reactions: Zorba

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,946
39,008
136
OPEC+ voted to increase production (need revenue) so probably going to keep oil prices suppressed along with a dud of a hurricane season in the gulf.
 
Feb 4, 2009
35,444
16,945
136
Don't underestimate the turnout of women, african-americans, and younger voters who are not in the Gaza or nothing else fringe.
I’ve been disappointed far too many times. I prefer to assume these folks aren’t going to turn out to vote. They just are not reliable enough to count on them.
 
Reactions: Indus

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,550
4,048
126
I wonder if crude will continue its slide over the next few months. Cheaper gas may lessen fears of inflation.
Cheaper oil will certainly help with the inflation picture. Gas prices will start to go lower from this week's oil drop in about a month, and that will help keep everything cheaper through the winter and into spring.

However, most of that impact will be noticed in prices AFTER the election. The only way that I see it being an election factor is if Harris chimes in repeatedly about it. Especially if she mentions that the US strategic oil reserves are filling up (which they have been for the last 15 months) at a massive taxpayer profit (looks like it may end up in the $7 billion profit range if prices stay low).
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,467
9,488
136
Gas prices almost always go down after labor day due to lesser demand from summer travel season ending.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,139
3,071
136
I’ve been disappointed far too many times. I prefer to assume these folks aren’t going to turn out to vote. They just are not reliable enough to count on them.
It's widely known and accepted that young people generally don't vote. Otherwise, you keep spouting the same BS.

Dems would be losing more elections (such as 2020) if women and esp. Black women didn't turn out and vote. I don't necessarily mean high turnout, but they lean so much in favor of the Dems that we don't win key elections if women aren't voting for us. It's just that simple. IIRC Black women vote for Dems over 90% of the time. Even though their absolute numbers are not huge, they are Democrats most loyal voter. (Having said that, the most valuable voters are probably suburban white women in the Rust Belt. They were decisive in 2016 and 2020.)

As far as turnout this time, there was a burst of enthusiasm for Harris/Walz in August but right now we have no idea if that translates into November turnout. The baseline assumption right now is turnout will be above 2016, and perhaps below 2020.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,685
8,917
136
It's widely known and accepted that young people generally don't vote. Otherwise, you keep spouting the same BS.

Dems would be losing more elections (such as 2020) if women and esp. Black women didn't turn out and vote. I don't necessarily mean high turnout, but they lean so much in favor of the Dems that we don't win key elections if women aren't voting for us. It's just that simple. IIRC Black women vote for Dems over 90% of the time. Even though their absolute numbers are not huge, they are Democrats most loyal voter. (Having said that, the most valuable voters are probably suburban white women in the Rust Belt. They were decisive in 2016 and 2020.)

As far as turnout this time, there was a burst of enthusiasm for Harris/Walz in August but right now we have no idea if that translates into November turnout. The baseline assumption right now is turnout will be above 2016, and perhaps below 2020.

Trump is basically micro targetting young male voters under 30 to make up his numbers by going on a tour of podcasters since they're very hard to reach on main stream media.

And Kam's basically doing nothing, no interviews, no podcasts.. haven't seen one gen z outlet cover her in over 2 weeks since the convention.

I hate to say it but she's gotta do what Trump is doing.. go to where the available voters are nowdays.. youtube shows/ podcasts/ tiktok.. basically the gen z hotspots.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,467
9,488
136
Reactions: dullard

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,946
39,008
136
Trump is basically micro targetting young male voters under 30 to make up his numbers by going on a tour of podcasters since they're very hard to reach on main stream media.

And Kam's basically doing nothing, no interviews, no podcasts.. haven't seen one gen z outlet cover her in over 2 weeks since the convention.

I hate to say it but she's gotta do what Trump is doing.. go to where the available voters are nowdays.. youtube shows/ podcasts/ tiktok.. basically the gen z hotspots.

I saw she did another podcast interview like yesterday. She's has stayed away from the mainstream press except for the CNN interview, though so has Trump since his Fox appearances are more propaganda sessions than any sort of actual news.

I do think this will probably shift after the debate and she'll do more traditional earned media.
 
Feb 4, 2009
35,444
16,945
136
It's widely known and accepted that young people generally don't vote. Otherwise, you keep spouting the same BS.

Dems would be losing more elections (such as 2020) if women and esp. Black women didn't turn out and vote. I don't necessarily mean high turnout, but they lean so much in favor of the Dems that we don't win key elections if women aren't voting for us. It's just that simple. IIRC Black women vote for Dems over 90% of the time. Even though their absolute numbers are not huge, they are Democrats most loyal voter. (Having said that, the most valuable voters are probably suburban white women in the Rust Belt. They were decisive in 2016 and 2020.)

As far as turnout this time, there was a burst of enthusiasm for Harris/Walz in August but right now we have no idea if that translates into November turnout. The baseline assumption right now is turnout will be above 2016, and perhaps below 2020.
I will be happy to be proven wrong, come back and call me out if it happens.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,139
3,071
136
I will be happy to be proven wrong, come back and call me out if it happens.
I understand, these elections are typically very close and we rarely get a comfortable victory like 2008.

Look at CNN's exit polls for 2020. Women voters went for Biden 57%.* It takes Dems a broad coalition to win a national election, but it's undeniable that every recent victory is powered by women voters.


* 20 years ago, Kerry's advantage with women was just 51-48. A wide and durable gender gap has opened up since.
 
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