Question 5 Nodes in 4 years discussion

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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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Intel nodes are optimized for high power/high frequency so for Lunarlake like products they'll lose perf/w.
Perhaps that explains why PTL-U had a PL2 of 57W in the leak, whereas LNL has a PL2 of 37W.
 

Mahboi

Golden Member
Apr 4, 2024
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I hear you. 18A brings the backside power delivery. 20A was supposed to be proof of concept type silicon. Remember the days when Intel would never consider outsourcing their processors to fabs from outside companies. In my mind, Intel has already lost this round for outsourcing their silicon to TSMC. We already know TSMC makes real good silicon. Intel is acknowledging this by using TSMC.

I am seriously disappointed.
Speaking of which, TSMC pushed back backside power delivery to a later node.

If Intel wants to catch up, I think a lot hinges on that. If 18A still holds on to it, it might be a stabilisation. Otherwise it's starting to look like AMD-Nvidia software support where AMD is always one gen behind or worse.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Speaking of which, TSMC pushed back backside power delivery to a later node.

If Intel wants to catch up, I think a lot hinges on that. If 18A still holds on to it, it might be a stabilisation. Otherwise it's starting to look like AMD-Nvidia software support where AMD is always one gen behind or worse.


I'm not sure they really pushed it back much if at all.

TSMC had originally said that BSPDN would be a "separate" offering following the node by six months. So six months after N2 reaches mass production, N2+BSPDN would reach mass production. Everyone assumed that N2P would automatically include BSPDN, but I never saw that confirmed by TSMC.

Now they reiterate that N2 will not have BSPDN, but say that A16 will. It still isn't clear to me if you HAVE to use BSPDN if you use A16, because there may be some cases where it really doesn't make sense to incur the additional cost. We'll have to see.

But the important thing is that in TSMC's latest roadmaps N2P and A16 are both shown at the same time - "H2 2026", or one year after N2's "H2 2025" (though that might possibly move up since it hit 80% yields in late May and officially entered risk production in early July)

So basically BSPDN went from "it comes six months after N2" to "it comes a year after N2". But it comes as part of a better process than the former "N2+BSPDN" option would have given you, so should be worth the additional six months of waiting time. Whether that constitutes "pushing back" or not is up to our judgment I guess. If Apple had planned to sell a M4 based Mac Pro in January but they said they were going to instead sell an M5 based Mac Pro in July that would be a similar situation. If you really need a Mac Pro in January, it is being pushed back, but if you didn't need it until July then this is a great thing!

I brought up Apple in the example because we all know who the 800 lb gorilla dictating TSMC's schedule is. That's one reason why (in light of the aforementioned reaching of N2 milestones ahead of schedule) I think it wouldn't be unsurprising to see Apple put N2 based silicon in shipping products in 2025, and A16 based silicon in shipping products in 2026. Whether those "shipping products" include iPhones or we're just talking Macs, we'll have to see. TSMC isn't making these schedule changes in a vacuum, Apple is always their lead customer taking the first wafers so TSMC is going to drive the schedule to deliver those wafers when Apple needs them.

So back to your original post while yeah, TSMC's first mass production of wafers using BSPDN will happen six months later than previously announced, I don't think that's going to give Intel any major advantage. In my mind it doesn't matter whether Intel has a technical advantage with 18A or not. I don't think it matters if 18A is BEHIND where TSMC is at the time either. Because delivering 18A on schedule and being able to cost effectively mass produce it is what Intel needs to do to demonstrate to potential foundry customers that they are back on track.

Then they need to hit the mark again with 18A-P and again with 14A, while getting capacity ramped up by making progress on building the fabs in Ohio, then they will have all the customers they need kicking down their door. Even if they were say a year behind TSMC performance-wise. Because the primary reasons for people to choose Intel in the near and medium term is 1) dual sourcing for those customers who need it / can afford it / not putting all their eggs in the Taiwan basket and 2) "made in the USA" (for DoD and other security sensitive type of applications where that sort of thing matters) Whether they can match or beat TSMC performance wise only matters later, when they try to win the big dogs like Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm - who will only consider them once they have a proven track record as a foundry.
 

Mahboi

Golden Member
Apr 4, 2024
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Great post.
You just reminded me of something else.
Recent shortcomings have come from AMD lacking volume for OEMs to put their chips in laptops. Not the first time nor the last.
But what's interesting about it is how the forces are slowly playing out. Intel at this point sells laptops not because they're good (might change with LNL ofc but still not out yet), but because they have a reliable, ready-to-go volume of chips that AMD doesn't have. Considering AMD's culture, I don't really picture them pressing TSMC much harder for more wafers. They're penny pinchers not large volume investors, and TSMC is famously busy with many clients.

Because of that situation, rumours have sprung up that Kraken, the low tier Zen 5, will be done at Samsung Foundry. Past the performance questions, it's well known that Samsung has broadly meh nodes, but it is more production volume for pretty cheap, even if they were to order a lot.

Now holding that thought about SSF, what happens if in say, Zen 6 or later time, AMD still has insufficient volume for everyone even with Samsung, or they have sufficient low tier chip volume but terrible volume for high tier chips? They'd need a foundry with volume capacity that isn't too pressured, and can still provide a somewhat high tier performance.
All at the same time, Intel keeps digging down. Yes LNL may save them somewhat, but if they lose server (and they are), it's a very severe hole in their finances. Client will also keep suffering on the P cores, and let's add the RPL early failures on top of it. Intel may be seriously searching for money.

We may end up with the unthinkable.
Intel, needing money and customers for IFS badly, will accept business from AMD. AMD needs more volume, while Intel needs to fix their finances before they can get a strong CPU out again. It's a net loss for Intel in the long run, and they'd probably not work for it at any point if they weren't bleeding out. But they are bleeding out.
We may yet see IFS accept to build volume for Ryzen, cannibalizing their own sales of CPUs, but making money as Intel really really needs to show IFS' viability to investors. And we may see AMD's volume problem get diminished and gain even more CPU market share from Intel. It's a terrible deal for Intel, so they'd never accept it, but when you're bleeding out, any bandage helps. I could envision a pitch where whoever leads Intel then says that they need to accept to build Ryzen volume and cannibalize their sales for a year or two, and survive financially until whatever next Saviour Lake comes.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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We may end up with the unthinkable.
Intel, needing money and customers for IFS badly, will accept business from AMD.

Pat is eager to do that but AMD is hesitant, thanks to the damage Intel's marketing has done to AMD's brand over the decades. But Intel's ploy will be to keep AMD at least one node behind on IFS so they can themselves claim the node advantage.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Apparently good news regarding Intel and 18A.
I don't have a subscription, but this is what I think this article says.
I wonder if anything regarding 20A is mentioned.

https://www.semiaccurate.com/2024/09/09/what-is-really-going-on-with-intels-18a-process/

Charlie is usually doom and gloom for Intel so the news can't be all that bad. I won't say "good" because he says he went looking for bad news as far as 18A delays or yield issues, but says he wasn't able to find anything like that. But in this case since Intel is so beaten down I suppose the absence of bad news counts as good news.
 
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Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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Charlie is usually doom and gloom for Intel so the news can't be all that bad. I won't say "good" because he says he went looking for bad news as far as 18A delays or yield issues, but says he wasn't able to find anything like that. But in this case since Intel is so beaten down I suppose the absence of bad news counts as good news.

Keep in mind that Charlie has a crush on Pat - just in case you are looking for objectivity...
 

desrever

Senior member
Nov 6, 2021
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Charlie is usually doom and gloom for Intel so the news can't be all that bad. I won't say "good" because he says he went looking for bad news as far as 18A delays or yield issues, but says he wasn't able to find anything like that. But in this case since Intel is so beaten down I suppose the absence of bad news counts as good news.
He's been shilling Intel for quite a while now.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Great post.
You just reminded me of something else.
Recent shortcomings have come from AMD lacking volume for OEMs to put their chips in laptops. Not the first time nor the last.
But what's interesting about it is how the forces are slowly playing out. Intel at this point sells laptops not because they're good (might change with LNL ofc but still not out yet), but because they have a reliable, ready-to-go volume of chips that AMD doesn't have. Considering AMD's culture, I don't really picture them pressing TSMC much harder for more wafers. They're penny pinchers not large volume investors, and TSMC is famously busy with many clients.

I think it went somethink like:

Intel OEMs: "Hay AMD, can we have extra 40 million CPUs this quarter, with no notice what-so-ever, so that we don't have to sell Raptor Lake?"
AMD: "No, we don't have 40 million CPUs sitting around"
Intel OEMs: "Can you ask TSMC to fab extra 40 million CPUs this quarter, with no notice what-so-ever, so that we don't have to sell Raptor Lake?"
AMD: "We can ask, but I doubt they have capacity for 40 million CPUs idle, sitting around"
 

desrever

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Nov 6, 2021
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I think it went somethink like:

Intel OEMs: "Hay AMD, can we have extra 40 million CPUs this quarter, with no notice what-so-ever, so that we don't have to sell Raptor Lake?"
AMD: "No, we don't have 40 million CPUs sitting around"
Intel OEMs: "Can you ask TSMC to fab extra 40 million CPUs this quarter, with no notice what-so-ever, so that we don't have to sell Raptor Lake?"
AMD: "We can ask, but I doubt they have capacity for 40 million CPUs idle, sitting around"
It goes like this:
Intel: I made way more CPUs than I need cause I thought pandemic boom was the new norm, I guess I have to dump them for cheaper than it costs to manufacture them just to recoup some cost. We will just put all the negative numbers under the foundry business line.
OEM: AMD, I already have millions of Intel CPUs for cheap but they aren't performing that well, can you give millions of your CPU for cheap too?
AMD: I don't want to do that, I don't have the wafer supply to waste on cheapo consumer silicon and I don't want to sell CPUs for a loss
OEM: AMD, why won't you give us CPUS??!!!!!
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
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Still doesn’t explain how Qualcomm got all those design wins from multiple top tier bands and AMD just had Asus. Exclusivity is a dumb idea, particularly if after the exclusionary period ends and multiple OEMs don’t put out their chips.
 
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desrever

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Nov 6, 2021
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Still doesn’t explain how Qualcomm got all those design wins from multiple top tier bands and AMD just had Asus. Exclusivity is a dumb idea, particularly if after the exclusionary period ends and multiple OEMs don’t put out their chips.
Qualcomm probably subsidizing OEMs to launch designs to enter the market.
It's not really that many design wins either, just some high profile ones in absolute numbers, they there really isn't that many X1 models available either.
 
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jdubs03

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Oct 1, 2013
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Qualcomm probably subsidizing OEMs to launch designs to enter the market.
It's not really that many design wins either, just some high profile ones in absolute numbers, they there really isn't that many X1 models available either.
Fair. But still more variety then with what’s available for the HX 370.

Seems like table stakes to get a bunch of designs out there upon launch. AMD being unwilling to do that puts them at a disadvantage. Maybe they should focus on Asus and the Surface at first for premium models. Maybe add Lenovo in there.

I actually really like the Asus Zephyrus and ProArt 16 (though it’s a shame it’s only 4K 60Hz). Just would like their trackpad to be like the MBP or Surface (not that I’m in the market for one).
 
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Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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Now they reiterate that N2 will not have BSPDN, but say that A16 will. It still isn't clear to me if you HAVE to use BSPDN if you use A16, because there may be some cases where it really doesn't make sense to incur the additional cost. We'll have to see.

Cutrass had an interview on his Youtube channel with TSMC rep, and he said that yes, back side power delivery is extra cost, not all chips need this feature, and TSMC is making the feature optional - in order not to increase cost of products that don't need it.
 

Hans Gruber

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Dec 23, 2006
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You missed this:


Speculation but it seems good as any.

Whether due to execution sucking or finances not allowing it, they couldn't get extra 10% for 18A over 20A, nevermind extra density.

Therefore, in the spirit of trying to reduce costs, they took 20A, added extra libraries, and renamed it 18A. Hence 18A is only 15% over Intel 3, same as the original claims for 20A. What do you do with the 20A naming? Cancel it!

When morality of a nation falls, the fall of a country is not too far behind.
I think what happened is Intel ran a few test batches of TSMC N4P or similar on Arrow Lake CPU's and up against 20A. The results were TSMC silicon was faster, more efficient and better than 20A and the cost for TSMC silicon was reasonable. There is no clock regression with TSMC on the 5nm node. They probably had some yield issues as well with 20A. 18A has the backside power thing going for it. I have said 20A was kind of a cheater node anyway. I think 18A is closer to real world 3nm.
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
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Desperate times call for desperate measures:

Jensen has spoken:
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang spoke at the Goldman Sachs Communicopia conference on Wednesday and was asked about the geopolitical risk tied to Taiwan and what he would do if something happened.

“In the event that we have to shift from one fab to another, we have the ability to do it,” Huang said, in conversation with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. “We won’t be able to get the same level of performance or cost, but we will be able to provide the supply.”
 

Mahboi

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Apr 4, 2024
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My Taiwan prediction may come sooner than I expected. And in worse conditions.
 

aigomorla

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LEAVE YOUR POLITICS AND OTHER GARBAGE NOT RELATED TO CPU'S OUT OF THIS THREAD, OR I WILL SHOW YOU FORUM POLITICS AND HOW WE HANDLE THEM.

POLITICS SHOULD GO TO POLITICS AND NEWS.

IF I READ ANYMORE POLITICAL GARBAGE, I WILL LOCK THIS THREAD AND SHELF IT IN A VERY DARK PLACE FOREVER TO BE FORGOTTEN THAT NOT EVEN THE ALL MIGHTY GOOGLE WILL BE ABLE TO FIND IT.

MODERATOR AIGOMORLA
 
Last edited:

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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I'm surprised that Nvidia aren't looking at putting lower end parts on an Intel process. They used Samsung 14nm for the 1050 cards back in the day, they could put the 5050/5060 on Intel. Frees up more of their TSMC capacity for top end GPUs and AI parts, gives them more leverage next time they negotiate with TSMC, and helps cultivate a plan B in case they can't get TSMC capacity for whatever reason.
 
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