Discussion Official 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

Charmonium · Sep 17, 2024

You may or may not be right - and there's the rub. Such a strange expression, but descriptive.

For example, would there be more or less interest in buying a home if rates are reduced more quickly. On an exam, I'd have to rate that as a freebie - ceteris paribus (economists do love their weasel words heehee).

Of course it's hardly the only relevant parameter, but you get the idea.

biostud · Sep 17, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
There is no reason to rush rate cuts. None. But then I argue for none at all. People always want a free lunch.

Yes, there is, you want to avoid recession, and you want people to have jobs. There is absolutely no reason to keep the rates high.

KB · Sep 17, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
The market seems to be bewildered with no clear direction at the moment.

The clear direction is up. Baring bad news the markets due tend to go up, as buybacks, 401ks and regular buys keep the markets moving up.

FelixDeCat · Sep 18, 2024

Come on .25 increase! 😀

AdamK47 · Sep 18, 2024

.50 decrease

FelixDeCat · Sep 18, 2024

AdamK47 said:
.50 decrease

Boournes!

IronWing · Sep 18, 2024

And my bank cut the rate on CDs by 0.7%, thanks Fed.

Red Squirrel · Sep 18, 2024

Just realized I broke 1k in index funds now, I'm at $1,200. Been trading VUN.TO. Average cost is $99 and currently trading at $102.87. Doing better than regular stocks. *cries in Victoria Gold*

My company ESP has been up and down, but seems to be trending up but it's still low compared to a bit over a year ago. As soon as I get a bit past the break even point I will cash in, I can use the money. I contribute the minimum so I can benefit on company contributions and the money I would have put in before is going towards index funds, and the credit line. I have like 24k on there and it's not going down very fast. Not much money left over once all the bills come out.

AdamK47 · Sep 19, 2024

Futures up hugely. Was hoping for only a .25 decrease and the market to sell off from the .5 price in.

Have a pile I'd like to average in.

FelixDeCat · Sep 19, 2024

I am perplexed and bewildered. We should be in freefall mode. We should see QQQ below 400.

Instead we just have a short covering rally because the Fed is playing favorites again.

repoman0 · Sep 19, 2024

Meanwhile the rest of us have been expecting this for many months, locked in long term bonds at high rates early, and steadily invested in the market since this was highly telegraphed.

Rates on the ten year are back up a little on expectations that the fed has avoided a recession.

FelixDeCat · Sep 23, 2024

Government shutdown taken off the table for now.

JTsyo · Sep 27, 2024

Week of treading water after the rate cuts. Is the election the next big known event?

FelixDeCat · Sep 28, 2024

JTsyo said:
Week of treading water after the rate cuts. Is the election the next big known event?

Historically when a democrat wins the market pulls back and goes up when a republican wins. The outsize move up or down then usually goes back to neutral as longs or shorts cash in.

Some people have both puts and calls. Index options are expensive factoring a 5% move up or down the next business day.

biostud · Sep 28, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Historically when a democrat wins the market pulls back and goes up when a republican wins. The outsize move up or down then usually goes back to neutral as longs or shorts cash in.

Some people have both puts and calls. Index options are expensive factoring a 5% move up or down the next business day.

Historically republicans has been somewhat predictable in their politics...

FelixDeCat · Sep 28, 2024

biostud said:
Historically republicans has been somewhat predictable in their politics...

Thus the temporary sharp rally, pullback to neutral and continued gradual move back up. The only recent exception to the "republican win" market rally was Donald Trump in 2016. Initially the market sold off hard as he was not expected to win but then rallied strongly as people factored in a pro business environment.

Again, I am only speaking to the trading day after the election, not the next four years. A big bounce up or down depending on who wins happens a lot of times on the first trading day after the election.

Here is the current option prices as of Friday for $487 QQQ (closest price).

(These are the only options for sale as of Friday 09/27/24):

Before Election night-

11/1/24 QQQ call 487 - ask $12.09, +2.48% .... QQQ put 487 - ask $10.45, -2.14%

After Election night -

11/8/24 QQQ call 487 - ask 15.03, +3.08% .... QQQ put 487 - ask 12.80, -2.62%

As we get closer these prices will probably come down as they currently have time value and daily options arent priced that far out yet, but the outsized post election move is currently .5% (not 5% as stated above).

biostud · Sep 28, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Thus the temporary sharp rally, pullback to neutral and continued gradual move back up. The only recent exception to the "republican win" market rally was Donald Trump in 2016. Initially the market sold off hard as he was not expected to win but then rallied strongly as people factored in a pro business environment.

Again, I am only speaking to the trading day after the election, not the next four years. A big bounce up or down depending on who wins happens a lot of times on the first trading day after the election.

Here is the current option prices as of Friday for $487 QQQ (closest price).

(These are the only options for sale as of Friday 09/27/24):

Before Election night-

11/1/24 QQQ call 487 - ask $12.09, +2.48% .... QQQ put 487 - ask $10.45, -2.14%

After Election night -

11/8/24 QQQ call 487 - ask 15.03, +3.08% .... QQQ put 487 - ask 12.80, -2.62%

As we get closer these prices will probably come down as they currently have time value and daily options arent priced that far out yet, but the outsized post election move is currently .5% (not 5% as stated above).

Obviously, the history of the stock market does not predict the future, but as far as I can see there is no evidence that s&p500 is worse when a democrat is president.

From Reagan to Trump: Here's how stocks performed under each president

President Donald Trump often cites the stock market as a scorecard of his policies. Here’s how the S&P 500 performed under each president from Reagan to Trump.

edition.cnn.com

FelixDeCat · Sep 28, 2024

Again, I am talking about the next day reaction.

When you are surprised by an outcome your primary reaction is immediate not over 4 years.

If you still don't understand, let's see what happens on November 6th. Look for an outsize move on that day ONLY.

Most people don't care about daily moves I guess but I do, especially on something that happens on a pretty regular basis every four years so I remember market daily events like days of my life.

biostud · Sep 29, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Again, I am talking about the next day reaction.

When you are surprised by an outcome your primary reaction is immediate not over 4 years.

If you still don't understand, let's see what happens on November 6th. Look for an outsize move on that day ONLY.

Most people don't care about daily moves I guess but I do, especially on something that happens on a pretty regular basis every four years so I remember market daily events like days of my life.

Ah, yeah one day reactions as you say does not really concern me, as it is either just algorithm jitter or stock bro's jitter.

AdamK47 · Sep 29, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Again, I am talking about the next day reaction.

When you are surprised by an outcome your primary reaction is immediate not over 4 years.

If you still don't understand, let's see what happens on November 6th. Look for an outsize move on that day ONLY.

Most people don't care about daily moves I guess but I do, especially on something that happens on a pretty regular basis every four years so I remember market daily events like days of my life.

Can you tell us what your moves will be to take advantage of the day?

biostud · Sep 29, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Again, I am talking about the next day reaction.

When you are surprised by an outcome your primary reaction is immediate not over 4 years.

If you still don't understand, let's see what happens on November 6th. Look for an outsize move on that day ONLY.

Most people don't care about daily moves I guess but I do, especially on something that happens on a pretty regular basis every four years so I remember market daily events like days of my life.

Overall you might prefer one or the other candidate, but in reality there is as far as I can see no evidence that either side is better or worse for the market. Mostly it is events that is outside political control that affects the market. Obviously how the wealth is distributed differ and lots of other things is affected by who has the office. Personally I'm wondering if you're ever going to see a balanced budget in US again or at some point start reducing your debt. But I guess that's not the concern of the politicians....

FelixDeCat · Sep 29, 2024

AdamK47 said:
Can you tell us what your moves will be to take advantage of the day?

None. Options will factor in an up or down move percent change to factor in historical and probable volatility so to place a bet beforehand will probably result in losses for buyers as the option sellers hope to minimize mispriced contract losses.

An example is options on a volatile stock after earnings. The typical move for a very good or very bad earnings report is about +/- 8% for almost any large cap stock. If intraday readings on those earnings are perceived to be unusually bad or unusually good, you could see a +/- 15% post earnings move.

However if the stock is flat all option buyers lose....and option sellers take everyone to the cleaners.

Which is why its not wise to fool around with them unless you are genuinely trying to protect a position with puts, so you short calls and buy puts on your stock.

I remember the good ole days when Netflix would crash about 20% post earnings on a fairly regular basis. All of them were buyable dips.

One of great buyable dips was on Facebook and their stupid move into the Metaverse:

AdamK47 · Sep 30, 2024

You can always tell when Powell speaks.

FelixDeCat · Oct 1, 2024

Port strike by goons who refused a 50% raise and oppose even mild automation will spank the market. Old man Biden refused to intervene.

I am short for now.

Red Squirrel · Oct 1, 2024

50% raise damn. We're lucky to get 2% lol. Some people don't realize how good they have it.

Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Discussion Official 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰