Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

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gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,276
5,186
136
Guessing we see the same segmentation we always have from nvidia
How far back do you have to go for a 200W, 256 bit, 16GB, 86SM gap between 80 and 90?
It's a new segmentation. The 384-bit GPU that existed for over a decade is gone. They're leaving a very big GPU desert because they know they can get away with it.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,635
3,410
136
How far back do you have to go for a 200W, 256 bit, 16GB, 86SM gap between 80 and 90?
It's a new segmentation. The 384-bit GPU that existed for over a decade is gone. They're leaving a very big GPU desert because they know they can get away with it.
They know they don't have competition.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,276
5,186
136
They know they don't have competition.
Yes and no. Even without competition in the past they generally had logical increments between GPUs. It's been 2? decades since the top end card was 2x the next card down like this. They know people will spend $2000+ on a GPU and want to pressure people into it by having no competition from within.

This is FOMO marketing wankery from a company that has plenty of money. But hey, in 2026 they'll cut down a bunch of GB202 to fill that gap. But only after they milked the cattle.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,644
8,222
136
Yes and no. Even without competition in the past they generally had logical increments between GPUs. It's been 2? decades since the top end card was 2x the next card down like this. They know people will spend $2000+ on a GPU and want to pressure people into it by having no competition from within.

This is FOMO marketing wankery from a company that has plenty of money. But hey, in 2026 they'll cut down a bunch of GB202 to fill that gap. But only after they milked the cattle.
I agree. The gap between the flagship card and the high-end card has been ~1.35x for the longest time. It seems like in this case, we're going to get something much higher, like 1.5x.

They know they won't have competition in the performance bracket that is the 4090 and up, so they are offering a "poor man's 4090" in the form of the 5080 which has ~1.1x 4090 performance at a slightly lower price but also with reduced VRAM so that it doesn't make the 4090 irrelevant, and then also offering a "money no object" flagship that is essentially a milker's wet dream. No in between, take it or leave it, so that the ultra enthusiasts who must have the latest and greatest every generation are required to pony up the money if they want more GPU performance.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,650
1,899
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How far back do you have to go for a 200W, 256 bit, 16GB, 86SM gap between 80 and 90?
It's a new segmentation. The 384-bit GPU that existed for over a decade is gone. They're leaving a very big GPU desert because they know they can get away with it.
Kepler in 2012/2013. GK104 was 1536 shaders, GK110 was 88% smore shaders though with only a 50% bigger bus.

Even that wasn't quite the same though, since the GTX690 was two GK104's in SLI and GK110 didn't come out until a year later in the Titan and then the 780. The full 780 Ti targeted to gamers was a year and a half after Kepler launched. It was a weird generation and not really the same as there being 2x gap between the two chips released at the same basic time.
 

CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
127
273
136
Yes and no. Even without competition in the past they generally had logical increments between GPUs. It's been 2? decades since the top end card was 2x the next card down like this. They know people will spend $2000+ on a GPU and want to pressure people into it by having no competition from within.

This is FOMO marketing wankery from a company that has plenty of money. But hey, in 2026 they'll cut down a bunch of GB202 to fill that gap. But only after they milked the cattle.
The 5080 is probably going to be at least $1300, if not $1500. There are likely very few consumers looking for a GPU above that price that wouldn't prefer a 512bit absolute unit of a 5090 over a perhaps more cost effective but slightly less performant 384bit card as long as the cost increase isn't comically out of proportion to the performance uplift. I don't see this product segmentation as Nvidia milking their 90 class customers, they are just giving them what they want. It is the price increase of the 80 class and under cards where Nvidia is milking people.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,276
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The 5080 is probably going to be at least $1300, if not $1500.
Yeah, that's exactly the problem. They have priced a 256 bit card where the 384 bit card should be. In order to drive consumers toward the 5090.
There are no logical increments. The entire stack is designed to make the 5090 look desirable and "the only reasonable upgrade".
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
I should add that GB203 can only be so big before it starts hitting the sanctions levels. Dell is selling a model with the 4090 so they must do some amount of assembly outside of China but I imagine it's not much.

The 5090D is going to be interesting. I wonder if it will be 512-bit too but severely cut down to the point where the compute power is not much more than the 5080.
 

CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
127
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Yeah, that's exactly the problem. They have priced a 256 bit card where the 384 bit card should be. In order to drive consumers toward the 5090.
There are no logical increments. The entire stack is designed to make the 5090 look desirable and "the only reasonable upgrade".

I get where you are coming from, but they don't need a 384bit 80-class card if a 256bit gddr7 card matches the 4090's bandwidth, and I don't care if they make the 5090 384 or 512 bit because I'm not buying a 5090, and anyone that is buying a 5090 would likely prefer the 512bit bus. All I want is for them to price the 5080 at $1200 or less, otherwise I'm not buying at release. I got my 3080 for $750 in December 2020. The 4080 two years later was LESS fps/$ than my 3080. If the 5080 ends up being 4090 performance for $1500, it will have equal fps/$ to my four year old 3080, and I will be skipping another generation. At $1200, the increase in value would still suck, but I would hold my nose and buy it. $1k would be a fair price in a rational market with competition, but that's not the world we live in.

On no timeline do I buy a $2k+ 5090 regardless of what Nvidia does to gimp the rest of the product stack's value, and I'm sure the vast majority of the market is like that. For the people that do buy a $2k+ 5090, most of them wouldn't care if the 5080 was being given away for free as long as the 5090 is a significant increase in performance.
 
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gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,276
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I get where you are coming from, but they don't need a 384bit 80-class card if a 256bit gddr7 card matches the 4090's bandwidth, and I don't care if they make the 5090 384 or 512 bit because I'm not buying a 5090, and anyone that is buying a 5090 would likely prefer the 512bit bus. All I want is for them to price the 5080 at $1200 or less, otherwise I'm not buying at release. I got my 3080 for $750 in December 2020. The 4080 two years later was LESS fps/$ than my 3080. If the 5080 ends up being 4090 performance for $1500, it will have equal fps/$ to my four year old 3080, and I will be skipping another generation. At $1200, the increase in value would still suck, but I would hold my nose and buy it. $1k would be a fair price in a rational market with competition, but that's not the world we live in.

On no timeline do I buy a $2k+ 5090 regardless of what Nvidia does to gimp the rest of the product stack's value, and I'm sure the vast majority of the market is like that. For the people that do buy a $2k+ 5090, most of them wouldn't care if the 5080 was being given away for free as long as the 5090 is a significant increase in performance.
You're complaining about the same thing but from the opposite direction. The strategy is to only significantly increase performance on the high-end. They'll increase 5090 performance by 60% but MSRP by only 25%. Wow, look at all that value. All their lower products end up worse. 5080 will be 20-30% more expensive than 4080S for 30-35% more performance. Pricing is all structured to push people up the stack.

The 5090 will be more popular on Steam HW Survey than the 5080. Note that they already achieved this feat with the 4000 series but the new segmentation will make it even more pronounced.
 
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Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
9,117
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5080 for the same price as 4090 seems insane, no shift at all in price/perf seems too much, even for nvidia
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136

Samsung announces that they are planning on putting 3 GB GDDR7 into production next year, also increasing the speed to up to 40 Gbps. Dunno if the timing would work out for being used in any Blackwell refresh products but the timing is possible.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
136
The 5080 is probably going to be at least $1300, if not $1500. There are likely very few consumers looking for a GPU above that price that wouldn't prefer a 512bit absolute unit of a 5090 over a perhaps more cost effective but slightly less performant 384bit card as long as the cost increase isn't comically out of proportion to the performance uplift. I don't see this product segmentation as Nvidia milking their 90 class customers, they are just giving them what they want. It is the price increase of the 80 class and under cards where Nvidia is milking people.

I think they learned from the mistake of 4080, which is why the 5080 die is half the size of the 5090 die. They will be keeping this one to $999.
 

MoogleW

Member
May 1, 2022
80
37
61
5080 for the same price as 4090 seems insane, no shift at all in price/perf seems too much, even for nvidia
I also don't get the confidence in this idea. To me, 4080 super price is more likely. Its not like keeping that price won't maintain their current margins with less chance of trash reviews on day 1.
 
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CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
127
273
136
I also don't get the confidence in this idea. To me, 4080 super price is more likely. Its not like keeping that price won't maintain their current margins with less chance of trash reviews on day 1.

One of the leaks claimed that nvidia is considering a price range of $1300-1500. As much as I would like the price to be $1k like the 4080 Super, I would be very surprised if it is less than the 4080 release price of $1200, and I think it is more likely they will try to increase prices again. $1300 would be about in line with inflation from when the 4080 released. IMO, our only hope of a price under $1200 would be if Navi 48 comes close to matching the 4080 for not much more than $500.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
One of the leaks claimed that nvidia is considering a price range of $1300-1500. As much as I would like the price to be $1k like the 4080 Super, I would be very surprised if it is less than the 4080 release price of $1200, and I think it is more likely they will try to increase prices again. $1300 would be about in line with inflation from when the 4080 released.

I do think those are really nothing more than people guessing. $1299 does sound right tho.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
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GB203 should be a fair amount bigger plus the extra cost of GDDR7 (however much that is)


For the first time ever, the top chip is twice as big as the next tier down. IMO that is a clear sign they learned their lesson about second tier pricing, 5080 costs are being kept in check.

GB203 should only be a small amount bigger (5080 only has ~5% more CUDA than 4080S), and it only has the 16GB buffer, so 0% more VRAM. Negligible increase in production costs here. Can easily in the keep the $999 price of the Super, for the 5080, and not repeat the mistake of the 4080.

OTOH, GB202 5090 has over 30% more CUDA than 4090, and 50% more VRAM - so expect a big price increase on 5090. This thing will cost about double the production cost of the 5080, if not more.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,650
1,899
136
The new features should take up a fair amount of space plus I'm expecting them to juice the tensor cores and maybe the RT.
They can't take up too much more space. AD102 is already 608.5mm², and GB202 is adding 50% to the SM count and 33% to the memory bus. If the units were much larger with Blackwell they wouldn't be able to do that and stay in the reticle.
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
315
335
136
MLD is likely wrong and someone leaked some fake pricing just to make the real price seem pretty bearable. That pricing is stupid high and would lead to backlash.

Nvidia will use the founder edition and other things to keep pricing good for atleast the launch.

I think something like 999 to 1099 for the rtx 5080 founder edition to get reasonable reviews. With partner cards 100 to 200 more than this. So real pricing will be 1099 to 1199.

The Rtx 5090 will probably be 1799 for founders to get good reviews with partner cards and thus the real pricing be 1999.

Nvidia is not stupid.

$999 and 1799 will atleast lead to reasonable reviews and not much outrage if we compared to this so called leaked pricing. Partners will have higher prices which is where the true pricing will lie.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
They can't take up too much more space. AD102 is already 608.5mm², and GB202 is adding 50% to the SM count and 33% to the memory bus. If the units were much larger with Blackwell they wouldn't be able to do that and stay in the reticle.

There's a bunch of fixed stuff that takes up a bit of space besides the shaders.

I am expecting GB202 to be close to the limit.
 
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