Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

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marees

Senior member
Apr 28, 2024
578
639
96
Not sure if this was already posted:

TSMC insiders: "

Nvidia rushed TSMC through the Blackwell production process, causing failure during some common data center usage​

"​


Nvidia and TSMC’s Lucrative AI Alliance Shows Signs of Stress​


Nvidia’s Blackwell chip troubles, revealed in August, hurt relations with manufacturing partner TSMC, leading Nvidia to consider having Samsung make its latest gaming GPUs (non-AI related chips), The Information reports. Nvidia engineers testing initial Blackwell chips found they failed during some common data center usage, possibly from a design flaw.

But one early media report blamed TSMC’s advanced packaging process. Unnamed TSMC engineers said Nvidia rushed TSMC through the Blackwell production process, causing strain, as there was less time to work kinks out.

Note: Nvidia has used Samsung as a manufacturing partner for gaming GPUs before, so it's not that strange to turn to them now.

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-and-tsmcs-lucrative-ai-alliance-shows-signs-of-stress

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
^^^

Def skeptical about that too. The rumors were the issues were mainly packaging... and it'd be far too late to switch the gaming GPUs to any other node.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
136
Nvidia’s Blackwell chip troubles, revealed in August, hurt relations with manufacturing partner TSMC, leading Nvidia to consider having Samsung make its latest gaming GPUs (non-AI related chips), The Information reports. Nvidia engineers testing initial Blackwell chips found they failed during some common data center usage, possibly from a design flaw.

ZERO chance of that. Slow news cycle, so time for more nonsense rumors that go nowhere. Process libraries get increasingly more complex over time, making switching FABs more and more difficult. Next Gen GPUs are locked to TSMC at this point.
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,650
1,899
136
Even if it wasn't way too late to be switching nodes, moving the single die AI and gaming chips from TSMC to Samsung makes the least sense if the issue is the advanced packaging needed to join B200 together. The other chips should just be standard die on package and good to go barring some kind of fundamental issue with Blackwell itself.
 

CakeMonster

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2012
1,522
690
136
With the current state of competition, NV doesn't really have to be on the latest node for gaming chips anymore. We know they use TSMC now but all bets are off for the 6000 series. I doubt they want to spend extra for the cutting edge if they don't have to.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,635
3,410
136
ZERO chance of that. Slow news cycle, so time for more nonsense rumors that go nowhere. Process libraries get increasingly more complex over time, making switching FABs more and more difficult. Next Gen GPUs are locked to TSMC at this point.
Nvidia would never switch or even contemplate doing that as suggested. It would require rearchitecting moving to a different foundry. Even if on the same node.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
I still think Samsung at the lowest end (as an option maybe) is a possibility but it would be something that would have been planned.
 
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MoogleW

Member
May 1, 2022
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37
61
The only time it makes sense to me that they would have switched, is when they decided to do 20X naming like 2nd gen maxwell, maybe this is 2nd gen blackwell design. However, not only would that have been a long time ago, but the process issues talked about here are unrelated to the GeForce department. We also had no leaked indications of this in a timeframe that makes sense.

This is not he first or even second time in a row that rumors of tension resulting in Nvidia getting dumped or 'having a fit' to go outside of TSMC for gaming instead of the decision being something that would have been chosen out of careful consideration at the start, and just like 600-1000W rumors, it's something I am sure we will see every gen
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,390
11,392
136
Looks like Jensen is keen on keeping good relations with TSMC. He accepted full blame for the issue in Blackwell and said that TSMC helped them fix it.

"We had a design flaw in Blackwell, it was functional, but the design flaw caused the yield to be low," Huang said. "It was 100% Nvidia's fault."
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
9,338
3,507
136
www.teamjuchems.com
Nvidia is not stupid.

They are a publicly traded company in crazy spotlight. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to be greedy. If there is a chance that higher margins at reduced volumes is more profitable, they must pursue it.

They have market dominance in this segment. They have to exploit it.

I did the math on my small AMD buy in late 2020 when I couldn't buy a GPU so I bought stock instead. Had I bought nvidia, I would be fine buying a new GPU at these prices I am not sad about the AMD buy, but it wasn't nearly as dynamic. The answer to the me back then is what I see in so many other threads, why not both? That would have truly been the right call.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,349
5,479
136
The only time it makes sense to me that they would have switched, is when they decided to do 20X naming like 2nd gen maxwell, maybe this is 2nd gen blackwell design. However, not only would that have been a long time ago, but the process issues talked about here are unrelated to the GeForce department. We also had no leaked indications of this in a timeframe that makes sense.

This is not he first or even second time in a row that rumors of tension resulting in Nvidia getting dumped or 'having a fit' to go outside of TSMC for gaming instead of the decision being something that would have been chosen out of careful consideration at the start, and just like 600-1000W rumors, it's something I am sure we will see every gen

Rumors are mostly garbage, even when there might be a kernel of truth, they get it third hand with embellishment at each step.

For rumors/leaks I just follow Videcardz, which capture the more reliable Leakers like KopiteKimi, and take anything that they label "Rumor" as nonsense. Plus I spend 30 seconds reading, instead of 10 minutes listening to some blowhard (MLID) pontificate on made up nonsense drama.
 

fastandfurious6

Senior member
Jun 1, 2024
214
311
96
The faster this bubble drops and fails the better. It’s the next con after Crypto, Metaverse and now AI.


No - crypto and 'metaverse' were always inflated nonsense, AI is not. It works and it keeps getting better.

It's true there is huge overinvesting and it's unsustainable in several ways

BUT

it actually works. they're rushing for AGI and it's not really that far
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,978
3,656
136
No - crypto and 'metaverse' were always inflated nonsense, AI is not. It works and it keeps getting better.

It's true there is huge overinvesting and it's unsustainable in several ways

BUT

it actually works. they're rushing for AGI and it's not really that far
Bs, ai is extremely bad at most tasks that are considered high value. They are just making models bigger and bigger bigger. We are already hyper optimzed for the workload and results are terrible for the investment. AI is replacing the bottom end of the market and generally doing a bad job, that's why no ai company is making any money.

It could just be me but I can't see the fundamental change that will allow agi , doing more of the same it's going to get us there.

There are so many fields where there simply isn't enough data to train on , how does an llm based anything handle that.


Even things ai is good at the second complex technical language enters they are terrible. They are terrible because spoken language is terrible for articulating complex problems. In my field you would expect ai to be awesome but it's isn't, I have found one really good use case for ai and the problem is I can't sell it because no one will buy it because the cost of doing the old skool way isn't actually that high( effectively fault tree development and analysis using live data sets).

Edit: the next problem is customers generally don't know what they want ,they just know they have a problem. Lots of times they actually don't even know what the problem is. Let's watch AI have a crack at that, in many technical fields that literally 1/2 your job.

Don't worry tech bros have it all figured out.
 

gaav87

Member
Apr 27, 2024
180
380
96
I just found this shipping manifest from last month.
Nvidia is shipping gddr7 16G from micron. Will they sit on them for 4+months ? Or launch this year before black friday ?

 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,149
6,861
136
I'd like to think that if they were going to ship in time for Black Friday we'd have a lot more indicators pointing to that.

I don't think they feel the need to get anything out this year. They're not challenged at the high end now and they know AMD isn't going to release anything that could change that either.

Since they release the top of the stack first and know that those customers will buy those cards any time of the year, they don't gain a lot trying to hit a holiday launch. The average Black Friday shopper isn't in the market for a 5090.

They could also be intentionally holding off on a release until they clear out more channel inventory. Black Friday and some discounts or bundles on existing cards can certainly help with that.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,650
1,899
136
I'd like to think that if they were going to ship in time for Black Friday we'd have a lot more indicators pointing to that.

I don't think they feel the need to get anything out this year. They're not challenged at the high end now and they know AMD isn't going to release anything that could change that either.

Since they release the top of the stack first and know that those customers will buy those cards any time of the year, they don't gain a lot trying to hit a holiday launch. The average Black Friday shopper isn't in the market for a 5090.

They could also be intentionally holding off on a release until they clear out more channel inventory. Black Friday and some discounts or bundles on existing cards can certainly help with that.
Yeah, we imported some memory for development and testing at the end of September ain't mathing with a global launch mid-November.
Once again as always wallets will be safe from fake BF sales.
 

fastandfurious6

Senior member
Jun 1, 2024
214
311
96
Bs, ai is extremely bad at most tasks that are considered high value. They are just making models bigger and bigger bigger. We are already hyper optimzed for the workload and results are terrible for the investment. AI is replacing the bottom end of the market and generally doing a bad job, that's why no ai company is making any money.

It could just be me but I can't see the fundamental change that will allow agi , doing more of the same it's going to get us there.

There are so many fields where there simply isn't enough data to train on , how does an llm based anything handle that.


Even things ai is good at the second complex technical language enters they are terrible. They are terrible because spoken language is terrible for articulating complex problems. In my field you would expect ai to be awesome but it's isn't, I have found one really good use case for ai and the problem is I can't sell it because no one will buy it because the cost of doing the old skool way isn't actually that high( effectively fault tree development and analysis using live data sets).

Edit: the next problem is customers generally don't know what they want ,they just know they have a problem. Lots of times they actually don't even know what the problem is. Let's watch AI have a crack at that, in many technical fields that literally 1/2 your job.

Don't worry tech bros have it all figured out.

nnnnnnnnnnnope

from experience:

the job market is already hugely affected in many sectors not just IT

for IT workers who know what they're doing now work is a piece of cake, AI does most of it

there still is a whole lot of performativity around work, even if something is in practice super easy everyone pretends AI doesn't exist

basically you're doing the same and I know why

but if you genuinely believe that AI is a fad, sorry it's not

as I said crypto and metaverse etc were always nonsense from the beginning, but AI works

and I'm the farthest from a 'tech bro' I could possibly be

of course there are a lot of scammer 'tech bros' and nonsense startups but the strong LLMs actually work

the only 'negative' is the unavoidable hallucinations, but someone clever/experienced can detect and filter them out

my 2 cents
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
They could also be intentionally holding off on a release until they clear out more channel inventory. Black Friday and some discounts or bundles on existing cards can certainly help with that.

I looked on Newegg and supply is quite good... for everything but the 4090 (and they are all going for like $1950).

I do agree that it's going to be CES but NV could release the 5090 anytime really.
 
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