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Dec 10, 2005
25,517
8,938
136
Think about this though - why does high end wealth tend to populate hedge funds. In terms of fees, theirs' are extraordinary.

So why are they so popular? Because the investors just want to feel special? No, because they produce higher net returns.
Uh, yes. Rich people do want to feel special and think that hedge funds will outperform index funds in the long run. Many of those rich people do think they're smarter than everyone else, so they think that means they should also choose a different investment strategy. From what I've seen, some hedge funds may outperform the market in select years, but overall, it's not substantial and clear which finds and managers are the long term winners. People and their money are also easily parted with slick sales pitches by fancy middlemen.

Those rich people might also have other goals in mind and either a) don't want to do the financial planning themselves, b) have different risk profiles, and/or c) looking to minimize taxable events.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,080
3,222
136
Uh, yes. Rich people do want to feel special and think that hedge funds will outperform index funds in the long run. Many of those rich people do think they're smarter than everyone else, so they think that means they should also choose a different investment strategy. From what I've seen, some hedge funds may outperform the market in select years, but overall, it's not substantial and clear which finds and managers are the long term winners. People and their money are also easily parted with slick sales pitches by fancy middlemen.

Those rich people might also have other goals in mind and either a) don't want to do the financial planning themselves, b) have different risk profiles, and/or c) looking to minimize taxable events.
That's a pretty limp argument dude.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,772
3,852
136
I don’t think the goal is higher net returns — it’s wealth preservation. I’m getting to that point myself where I’d rather have a consistent 5-7% overall return than higher returns most years followed by a -30% event. With my current assets and savings rate, I’m not dependent on big market gains to have financial independence, but my financial independence is still subject to not taking a very high paper loss due to another 2008-ish event. I think there’s a good bit of unacknowledged geopolitical risk out there too.

Idk. So far I’m trying to get there on my own by diversifying and holding more treasury bonds. Those are pretty trash tax wise though.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,846
5,711
136
Somebody has to do the active trading and evaluate companies, so the rest of us passive investors can piggyback on the trades.

But AI could probably do evaluations just as well, and severely reduce the costs of active managed funds.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,554
4,050
126
Think about this though - why does high end wealth tend to populate hedge funds. In terms of fees, theirs' are extraordinary.

So why are they so popular? Because the investors just want to feel special? No, because they produce higher net returns.
The Buffet Challenge: Warren Buffet challenged hedge fund managers to beat a simple index fund over 10 years. Warren won, big time. Second place was pretty far behind the simple index fund. Buffet nearly doubled his investment in that decade. 5 hedge funds were in the challenge and 3 barely broke even in the 10 years. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/buffett-challenge-hedge-funds-vs-index-funds-9-years-on.html

More recently: "SP 500 Index Out-performed Hedge Funds over the Last 10 Years. And It Wasn’t Even Close" https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-...er-the-last-10-years-and-it-wasnt-even-close/
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,554
4,050
126
Cheaper isn't always better. For Example, The T. Rowe Price funds I own have higher fees but also higher returns. At least historically I think that's been true. I've gotten lazy in my old age.
Most of T. Rowe Price funds are actively managed as far as I know (I don't use them). How do actively managed funds perform compared to index funds?

  • 93% of funds underperformed the benchmark S&P Composite 1500.
  • 94% of large-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P 500.
  • 94% of small-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P SmallCap 600.
  • 95% of mid-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P MidCap 400.
  • 94% of multi-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P Composite 1500.
Note: those are actively managed funds in general, not T. Rowe Price specific. But, I just don't recommend actively managed funds in general due to the data above.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,080
3,222
136
The Buffet Challenge: Warren Buffet challenged hedge fund managers to beat a simple index fund over 10 years. Warren won, big time. Second place was pretty far behind the simple index fund. Buffet nearly doubled his investment in that decade. 5 hedge funds were in the challenge and 3 barely broke even in the 10 years. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/buffett-challenge-hedge-funds-vs-index-funds-9-years-on.html

More recently: "SP 500 Index Out-performed Hedge Funds over the Last 10 Years. And It Wasn’t Even Close" https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-...er-the-last-10-years-and-it-wasnt-even-close/
I was bathed in the same propaganda as most people are. The problem with hypotheticals is that, of necessity, they have to be streamlined and simplified to make any sense. So I don't doubt that no one could beat the index consistently.

But does the hypo adequately represent the real world. And for the lazy investor - it's the way to go. But if you're doing your PhD thesis on this, you're gonna need to start blowing some shit up.

For example, the amount by which a market moves (as partially captured in its index) is a beta of one. IOW, everything else gets compared to this.

Most of T. Rowe Price funds are actively managed as far as I know (I don't use them). How do actively managed funds perform compared to index funds?

  • 93% of funds underperformed the benchmark S&P Composite 1500.
  • 94% of large-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P 500.
  • 94% of small-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P SmallCap 600.
  • 95% of mid-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P MidCap 400.
  • 94% of multi-cap funds underperformed the benchmark S&P Composite 1500.
Note: those are actively managed funds in general, not T. Rowe Price specific. But, I just don't recommend actively managed funds in general due to the data above.
Did you just give me HOMEWORK?


F'ing HOMEWORK?
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,404
386
126
How are you positioning your portfolio for the US debt apocalypse? We borrow over $1 trillion a year just to pay off the interest on our debt and neither candidate shows signs of caring. Buy bitcoin, gold?
 
Dec 10, 2005
25,517
8,938
136
How are you positioning your portfolio for the US debt apocalypse? We borrow over $1 trillion a year just to pay off the interest on our debt and neither candidate shows signs of caring. Buy bitcoin, gold?
The debt apocalypse that people have been pounding the drum for 30+ years now? Any day now...
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,773
2,326
126
How are you positioning your portfolio for the US debt apocalypse? We borrow over $1 trillion a year just to pay off the interest on our debt and neither candidate shows signs of caring. Buy bitcoin, gold?
Sigh. I wish we cared about the national debt but we don't. Too many crybabies that cry when you try to cut spending or raise taxes.

Instead we just borrow with no intention to repay. I mentioned earlier that my gold would have doubled had I held it.

I think the dems might be on to something by raising taxes but we also need draconian spending cuts.

In the meantime cash is trash because the Fed and politicians keep the printers running 24x7.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,788
12,783
126
www.anyf.ca
Same issue here in Canada. Out of control spending. We need someone like Elon Musk in charge to slash the size of government and spending. The government should be run like a business and the goal should be to reduce costs as much as possible, not try to find ways to spend more. Get rid of all the dead weight and useless half assed programs.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,853
984
126
I'm convinced the US can only get away with the deficit for now because the $ is the reserve currency.

I expect that to end at some point.
Looking at debt to GDP, there's other countries that are worse. None of them have the reserve currency. If the debt is going to be an issue the others will be the canary.

 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,554
4,050
126
Personally, I don't think the standard political arguments work when it comes to debt. Tax and spend doesn't solve the debt. Similarly, the phase that the US has been in for the last two decades of "don't tax but then spend more" doesn't solve the debt.

Politicians can legally buy votes with tax cuts. Vote for me and your tax bill goes down. Politicians can legally buy votes with spending. Vote for me and we'll fund your cause. There is zero incentive to do anything else.

Since the standard political rhetoric isn't actually useful for solving this problem, I am strongly for a tough medicine form of solving the problem: every dollar increase in spending MUST come with a dollar increase in taxes. No smoke-and-mirrors of I'll somehow make up for it by cutting something later that I never get around to cutting. No offsets of any kind--they just don't materialize. Pure 1 for 1 tax increase on increases in spending (voluntary or mandatory spending). Make the politicians feel political pain and political pressure for increasing spending. Yes, no one wants more taxes. But, that is the only way that I see a democracy ending this trend.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,788
12,783
126
www.anyf.ca
Ideally there shouldn't even be any debt. Should be a hard rule that government can only spend money it actually has and every dollar should be backed by precious metals in a vault. Governments need to spend way less. Taxes should be low, and only kept for the bare necessities, like healthcare and infrastructure. End all the useless pet projects and programs.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,554
4,050
126
Ideally there shouldn't even be any debt. Should be a hard rule that government can only spend money it actually has and every dollar should be backed by precious metals in a vault. Governments need to spend way less. Taxes should be low, and only kept for the bare necessities, like healthcare and infrastructure. End all the useless pet projects and programs.
I have to disagree.

1) So if a government is frozen in the amount it can spend (since it can't borrow), then some other country attacks it, then the first country should just give up? For example, the US could just march in and take Montreal or Vancouver since Canada cannot borrow money to defend itself? That is just as silly of a stance as anyone could ever make. Governments should have a long-term goal of no debt. But, they should always be able to borrow money short-term in emergencies.

2) The world population has gone up 4x since most of the world ended the gold standard. The amount of gold on Earth has not increased and will never increase. Having precious metal reserves keep up with population is physically impossible. There isn't enough precious metal. Why stick with this ideal when it is impossible? In the past, we have made it illegal for citizens to own precious metals. That would help, but not solve the issue. Plus, would you voluntarily turn over your metals to Canada so that it can meet your precious metal goal?

3) Now combine #1 and #2. In your dream, in order to do anything, a government would have to convince another government to ship it some gold. That puts all the power into countries with gold (in reserve or in the ground). You'd instantly make Australia the most powerful country, followed by Russia, South Africa, USA, Peru, and Indonesia. I'm not certain that is the world powers that I'd wish us to have.

4) I agree with bare necessity spending, but your list needs to be expanded to public goods/services that are not feasible to fund privately or not feasible to be redundant to have sufficient competition (defense, police, most roads, etc.) I'd personally detest a world where I have to pay for my private army, while paying for the 6 different toll roads (12 if you count round trip) that I'd take on my 1 mile trip to the grocery store, if I could even reach the grocery store with the dozens of different power companies criss-crossing the area with all their new power lines (and private water lines being installed under the roads non-stop).
 
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Reactions: Brainonska511

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,846
5,711
136
Ideally there shouldn't even be any debt. Should be a hard rule that government can only spend money it actually has and every dollar should be backed by precious metals in a vault. Governments need to spend way less. Taxes should be low, and only kept for the bare necessities, like healthcare and infrastructure. End all the useless pet projects and programs.
Debt is fine if it is used as a one time investments in specific areas which increase productivity, like key infrastructure or broadband expansion. But if you run with a deficit on your budget every year, something needs to change.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,463
5,520
136
Just tie Congress' paychecks to balanced budgets. Until budget deficit is rectified, they are not paid. I bet it would get fixed in relatively short order.
 
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