Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

pmv · Sunday at 7:11 AM

Dave_5k said:
It is actually illegal to process or count early ballots in PA before election day, so at best estimates based on party registration of those returning ballots.

And ABC appears to be comparing performance relative to the unique 2020 COVID election in which Dems had a huge lead. And they still do this year:
View attachment 110371
Edit: sidenote, these early ballots can't even start to be processed until election day, as mandated by Pennsylvania MAGA congress. So the above votes will once again be counted after in-person ballots are processed on election day - in many districts may take a day or two more to open/process all of the mail ballots.

And once again, even if Harris wins by a landslide, with this voting imbalance Trump will still appear to be winning election night (based on in-person voting only).

Edit 2: used better table that includes # requested ballots / return rates. And source/link:

» 2024 General Election Early Vote – Pennsylvania UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu

Can one assume that different parties have the same ratio of 'early voting' to 'voting in person'? Or is that known from 2020?

In any case, the whole concept of reporting anything about votes already cast, before everyone has voted, seems dodgy to me.

I mean, I don't see any logic in banning people from counting early votes early, but I would entirely agree that nothing should be reported about the outcome of that count (and it's your system so up to you, but even reporting 'party registration' of returned votes seems to me to be a dubious thing to do).

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Sunday at 8:30 AM

^^^ I've always said NOTHING should be reported until the next morning at the very earliest. The whole election eve watch and media outlets 'calling' results is dead wrong.

Wednesday morning, 8AM Pacific is when results known to that point can come out. That gives all zones a minimum of 12 hours after polls close.

K1052 · Sunday at 9:38 AM

pmv said:
Can one assume that different parties have the same ratio of 'early voting' to 'voting in person'? Or is that known from 2020?

Not this year at all. Between COVID and states changing how their elections are run the mode/timing shift of voting is going to look like no other election but maybe 2022. However that was of course not a Presidential year so not an entirely good benchmark either.

K1052 · Sunday at 9:55 AM

In which Vance manages to admit that they plan to use the military against American citizens who do not share their political values amidst trying to say it's not true.

Just sick fucking people.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850527220642591178

Fenixgoon · Sunday at 10:14 AM

K1052 said:
In which Vance manages to admit that they plan to use the military against American citizens who do not share their political values amidst trying to say it's not true.

Just sick fucking people.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850527220642591178

Vance: trump said, and I agree, we should go after far leftists with the military.
Tapper: so they're not Americans?

Jesus fucking Christ. I really hope Trump loses or we are really fucked.

Indus · Sunday at 10:18 AM

Fenixgoon said:
Vance: trump said, and I agree, we should go after far leftists with the military.
Tapper: so they're not Americans?

Jesus fucking Christ.

And some people thought I was nuts calling for a bloody revolution against these crazies?

@iRONic isn't it?

We need to be on guard and stand up to these fascists! Now I might not agree with Kam 100% on her policies but it's her or fascism. People need to get their heads out of their asses!

And here's something a Canadian friend of mine was telling me.. they have their own polls for what's going on over the border.. they think Kam has a real shot in Texas based on their polling vs other states. It's basically similar to Iowa being in play for Obama but not anyone else and she is well liked in TX.

K1052 · Sunday at 10:19 AM

Fenixgoon said:
Vance: trump said, and I agree, we should go after far leftists with the military.
Tapper: so they're not Americans?

Jesus fucking Christ. I really hope Trump loses or we are really fucked.

Their definition of the "radical left" or whatever is also completely flexible to simply include anybody who doesn't agree with them or bend the knee.

So if you think they are not talking about you personally, they are.

Fenixgoon · Sunday at 10:21 AM

Indus said:
And some people thought I was nuts calling for a bloody revolution against these crazies?

@iRONic isn't it?

We need to be on guard and stand up to these fascists! Now I might not agree with Kam 100% on her policies but it's her or fascism. People need to get their heads out of their asses!

And here's something a Canadian friend of mine was telling me.. they have their own polls for what's going on over the border.. they think Kam has a real shot in Texas based on their polling vs other states. It's basically similar to Iowa being in play for Obama but not anyone else and she is well liked in TX.

She had a rally in Houston with Queen Bey. The campaign clearly knows something is going on in Texas that is worth devoting a lot of resources and star power to.

purbeast0 · Sunday at 10:46 AM

K1052 said:
In which Vance manages to admit that they plan to use the military against American citizens who do not share their political values amidst trying to say it's not true.

Just sick fucking people.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850527220642591178

I just saw multiple clips of this interview and holy hell, it is just UNREAL. I mean I really disliked Vance prior to this but this is like the worst I think I've ever seen him. He just has the most punchable face on the planet.

I simply cannot wrap my brain around how anyone that is an American can vast a vote for these 2 pieces of human trash.

akenbennu · Sunday at 10:50 AM

purbeast0 said:
I just saw multiple clips of this interview and holy hell, it is just UNREAL. I mean I really disliked Vance prior to this but this is like the worst I think I've ever seen him. He just has the most punchable face on the planet.

I simply cannot wrap my brain around how anyone that is an American can vast a vote for these 2 pieces of human trash.

Yep, Trump is off the rails unlikable, but Vance sounds coherent and is still unlikable.

Still amazed there as much support for that pair, at this point I just assume there's a sufficient anti female President bias showing trough.

jdubs03 · Sunday at 11:16 AM

It would appear that we are now firmly into the political persecution stage of the down slide of US democracy.

I just saw on NBC that there was a new Pew poll taken where 74% of the respondents said that they did not think that Trump would accept the results of the election if he loses. How is that right there not a trigger to vote for Harris? If people really value democracy like most say they do (including on the right, though I’m not sure they understand what democracy actually is anymore), this is incongruent with the current state of the race.

Weren’t the Republicans the ones who were making a fuss about participation trophies all these years (granted I’m not a fan of that either), sure sounds like they like it for Mr. Orange.

Wreckem · Sunday at 11:16 AM

This feels the way 2022 did.

Muse · Sunday at 11:18 AM

pmv said:
There are a handful of people who, to some degree, go against their own class-based self-interests. But they are a minority, often there's some other (non economic) factor involved (e.g. race or sexuality) and often it turns out you can't really trust them, as they have a tendency to revert to their roots (e.g. Chris Hitchens, privately-educated son of an admiral, eventually dropped his youthful pretense at leftism and became the imperialist he was always going to be - same is true of a lot of neo-cons).

You can only really trust people's political allegiances when they are clearly based on self-interest. I admit, a complication is that the definition of "self" is not fixed, as people can have multiple parts to their identity.

Christopher Hitchens an imperialist? You may as well dub the late Hitchens a madman. I'm unaware that he was, so I doubt you, sir.

If people "have multiple parts to their identity," they have no identity. It has been said, sagely, "be one!" So there...

You can only really trust people's political allegiances when they are clearly based on self-interest.

I find this suspect, to say the least. You have a dim view of human nature.

Muse · Sunday at 11:27 AM

Fenixgoon said:
She had a rally in Houston with Queen Bey. The campaign clearly knows something is going on in Texas that is worth devoting a lot of resources and star power to.

Kamala winning Texas would "make my day" in a big way and the afterglow would last a long time! But, of course, that's just a battle, she must win the war and be sworn in Jan. 20. "I Kamala Devi Harris do solemnly swear..."

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Sunday at 11:31 AM

K1052 said:
Their definition of the "radical left" or whatever is also completely flexible to simply include anybody who doesn't agree with them or bend the knee.

So if you think they are not talking about you personally, they are.

And even those that take a knee.

brycejones · Sunday at 11:32 AM

Fenixgoon said:
Vance: trump said, and I agree, we should go after far leftists with the military.
Tapper: so they're not Americans?

Jesus fucking Christ. I really hope Trump loses or we are really fucked.

We also need to remember a “far leftist” to these nut jobs is anyone who would have been a mainstream centrist republican who was socially liberal 20 years ago.

Indus · Sunday at 11:37 AM

There are polls and there are polls:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850514591341580732

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Sunday at 11:40 AM

I really, really, really want Jim Justice to lose and face justice.

Hogan I'm kind of mixed on except for the control issue. If the Dems can manage to take a couple of seats to neutralize that, Hogan just MIGHT be OK.,

HomerJS · Sunday at 11:47 AM

I went out this past weekend canvassing for Harris in PA. We install an app on phones and they send us out to D and I voters.

Third of my list didn’t answer the door so just left literature. There were a few who were not voting because they are frustrated nothing gets done. The ones voting were enthusiastic

Non voters I used the appeal of losing rights to change their mind. Didn’t work.

One member of our group had a bad interaction with a Trumper. She went to a house because others members was voting D. The male homeowner had Trump signs in his lawn. He answered the door and screamed at canvasser. She said she was there to talk to other members of the house voting D. He screamed again he didn’t care grabbed her literature and tore it up

This is what we are dealing with

jdubs03 · Sunday at 11:50 AM

HomerJS said:
I went out this past weekend canvassing for Harris in PA. We install an app on phones and they send us out to D and I voters.

Third of my list didn’t answer the door so just left literature. There were a few who were not voting because they are frustrated nothing gets done. The ones voting were enthusiastic

Non voters I used the appeal of losing rights to change their mind. Didn’t work.

One member of our group had a bad interaction with a Trumper. She went to a house because others members was voting D. The male homeowner had Trump signs in his lawn. He answered the door and screamed at canvasser. She said she was there to talk to other members of the house voting D. He screamed again he didn’t care grabbed her literature and tore it up

This is what we are dealing with

Sounds like someone needs some anger management classes.

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Sunday at 11:51 AM

That information should NOT be available to anyone but Government employed election officials.

K1052 · Sunday at 11:52 AM

Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
I really, really, really want Jim Justice to lose and face justice.

Hogan I'm kind of mixed on except for the control issue. If the Dems can manage to take a couple of seats to neutralize that, Hogan just MIGHT be OK.,

Justice is not going to lose and Hogan is not going to win.

I'm sure the Rs are happy about finally unseating Manchin but the problem with Justice is that he's in poor health and they expect his attendance to be an issue.

Indus · Sunday at 12:00 PM

HomerJS said:
I went out this past weekend canvassing for Harris in PA. We install an app on phones and they send us out to D and I voters.

Third of my list didn’t answer the door so just left literature. There were a few who were not voting because they are frustrated nothing gets done. The ones voting were enthusiastic

Non voters I used the appeal of losing rights to change their mind. Didn’t work.

One member of our group had a bad interaction with a Trumper. She went to a house because others members was voting D. The male homeowner had Trump signs in his lawn. He answered the door and screamed at canvasser. She said she was there to talk to other members of the house voting D. He screamed again he didn’t care grabbed her literature and tore it up

This is what we are dealing with

It's the indifferent voters that concern me the most.

Nazi's never got 50% of germany.. at most it was 36% in those that did actually vote and the vote was split.

When fascism is on the ballot.. have to unite against it!

K1052 · Sunday at 12:03 PM

The Harris campaign is cutting a number of city specific ads for the swing states. Here is Philadelphia's:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1850553797992464556

gothuevos · Sunday at 12:28 PM

Fenixgoon said:
Vance: trump said, and I agree, we should go after far leftists with the military.
Tapper: so they're not Americans?

Jesus fucking Christ. I really hope Trump loses or we are really fucked.

I do not think he is referring to going after the average Democrat voter.

I do think they will be very heavy handed with protests that have even an inkling of violence. Maybe even if there's no violence. Quick to pull the trigger on the Insurrection Act, etc. Where it escalates from there is anyone's guess.

Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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