Post your 2024 EC Map predictions!!!

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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,762
8,959
136
To be clear:

Each individual State's House Delegation gets together and they vote amongst themselves to determine who gets the 1 House Vote they get to cast for President.

California has 52 House Members. A solid majority will be Democrats after the 2024 Election. The Democrats will outvote the Republicans and California's one vote will go to Harris.

Texas has 38 House Members. A solid majority will be Republicans after the 2024 Election. The Republicans will outvote the Democrats and Texas' one vote will go to Trump.

Rinse, repeat.

To be elected by the House, the candidate will need a majority of votes, which would be 26.

Even Wisconsin and PA would end up for Trump this way IIRC.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,805
8,322
136
Even Wisconsin and PA would end up for Trump this way IIRC.
Depends on the 2024 Election.

The House Delegation that votes for President in case of neither candidate getting 270 is the House Delegation elected in 2024, sat in 2025.

It's why Gerrymandering in the States is so important. The House is second in line to elect the President, right behind the Electoral College.

It's why going to a popular vote is so antithetical to the rich and powerful. Giving every US citizen an equal vote isn't in the best interest of the rich and powerful, as their money is a lot more diluted among 330 million voters compared to a couple hundred Electoral College/House of Representative voters.
 

NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
3,125
2,713
136
It is accurate. I will add the Senate decides the Vice President if there is a tie in the electoral election.
Ignorance is a choice. Take a minute and use the search engine of your choosing, and choose to not be ignorant.

edit: oh snap! I hope you appricate the nice people who gave you the information you should have taken the time to look up yourself.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
23,539
21,770
136
I meant to post in this thread, but anyway, so far vote returns in Pennsylvania are looking extremely good for Democrats.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,749
6,425
136
Look at the scary brown people. Look at the scary trans person. Don’t look at the completely predictable results of our deregulation, tax, and tariff policies.

Basically what the GOP is running on this cycle.
It's what they run on every cycle. It's ridiculous since hating brown people and teh gheys wouldn't make my healthcare any cheaper, my wage any better, my educational costs any lower, nor anything else positive as a white man. Why the fuck should I vote on something as meaningless as muh white identity?
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,805
8,322
136
It's what they run on every cycle. It's ridiculous since hating brown people and teh gheys wouldn't make my healthcare any cheaper, my wage any better, my educational costs any lower, nor anything else positive as a white man. Why the fuck should I vote on something as meaningless as muh white identity?
Fascists are actually A-OK with nationalist socialism, where "others" are excluded from benefits that the country gives to in-group members.

If you're a white male, there's a pretty good chance that some things will improve for you as an in-group member, once "others" are not allowed to collect the same societal benefits as you. At least at first.

Republicans god damn well know this and vote accordingly.

Sure, the group of "others" who end up getting Boxcar'd will expand as time goes on, but for some people that's OK. As long as they can watch people they don't identify with get hurt first, that's enough for them.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,749
6,425
136
Fascists are actually A-OK with nationalist socialism, where "others" are excluded from benefits that the country gives to in-group members.

If you're a white male, there's a pretty good chance that some things will improve for you as an in-group member, once "others" are not allowed to collect the same societal benefits as you. At least at first.

Republicans god damn well know this and vote accordingly.

Sure, the group of "others" who end up getting Boxcar'd will expand as time goes on, but for some people that's OK. As long as they can watch people they don't identify with get hurt first, that's enough for them.
Meh national socialism was never about benefits for Aryans. It was about pretending there was no such thing as class and that Aryans were united by their blood and flag and all that mattered was they were the real Germans, not the Jews, socialists, communists, gays, etc. One of the first things Hitler did when coming to power is break up the unions; that's as anti-socialist as it gets. Same white nationalist bullshit that hasn't done anything to make white people's lives any better the last 250 years here. Being a socialist I figure my odds are better of being imprisoned than being some kind of in-group beneficiary of a Trump presidency.
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
7,805
8,322
136
Meh national socialism was never about benefits for Aryans. It was about pretending there was no such thing as class and that Aryans were united by their blood and flag and all that mattered was they were the real Germans, not the Jews, socialists, communists, gays, etc. One of the first things Hitler did when coming to power is break up the unions. Same white nationalist bullshit that hasn't done anything to make white people's lives any better the last 250 years here. Being a socialist I figure my odds are better of being imprisoned than being some kind of in-group beneficiary of a Trump presidency.
They used the concept of true Germans getting their country back from the others who have been diluting their country. White male Republicans hear that message for what it is - getting benefits for being "true Americans".
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,749
6,425
136
They used the concept of true Germans getting their country back from the others who have been diluting their country. White male Republicans hear that message for what it is - getting benefits for being "true Americans".
And the benefit they got was getting slaughtered in a two front war because they thought they were superhumans.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,281
13,773
136
Sure. 1933-1939 was a lot different than 1939-1944 though, and Republicans, many of whom cosplay as modern day SS, are all in. Don't take my word for it, just ask them.
Thats not the scary difference in my optics... Its not like you have to build shit up from scratch and in realtime while trying and almost succeeding at world domination... You already have the hardware, the infrastructure, the soldiers, intelligence apparatus etc. If the US turned 4th reich tomorrow there is little anyone else could actually do about it even if it was all vs. 1.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,762
8,959
136
In my first map I swung for the fences..

Here's my tentative guess of what's going on in the polls and maps in a way that they'd make sense:



If the polls are off.. scratch this.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,762
8,959
136
I've got a feeling.. either Trump squeaks out a win or Kam demolishes him really big.

I don't think she just squeaks it.. not with the shenanigans they have planned!
 
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SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,749
6,425
136
I've got a feeling.. either Trump squeaks out a win or Kam demolishes him really big.

I don't think she just squeaks it.. not with the shenanigans they have planned!
Nah if it's a blowout it'll be for Trump since Kamala needs to be around +4 in the popular vote to make it really likely she wins the slaveowner vote, I mean the electoral college.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,496
9,520
136
Nah if it's a blowout it'll be for Trump since Kamala needs to be around +4 in the popular vote to make it really likely she wins the slaveowner vote, I mean the electoral college.

A lot of analysis/math suggesting that Trump gains in places like CA/NY that will never matter in the EC are really bringing down the overall difference between popular vote and EC margin. He could gain significantly in those states decreasing her popular % win, and not change the EC margin at all.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,749
6,425
136
A lot of analysis/math suggesting that Trump gains in places like CA/NY that will never matter in the EC are really bringing down the overall difference between popular vote and EC margin. He could gain significantly in those states decreasing her popular % win, and not change the EC margin at all.
I take it as a very very bad sign that the democrats are losing votes even in these bluest of states and per 538's polling aggregation model Trump would be up 281-257. My only hope is woman voters have been hugely undersampled, because the polls were too bearish on Trump in both 2016 and especially 2020.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
23,539
21,770
136
I take it as a very very bad sign that the democrats are losing votes even in these bluest of states and per 538's polling aggregation model Trump would be up 281-257. My only hope is woman voters have been hugely undersampled, because the polls were too bearish on Trump in both 2016 and especially 2020.
I believe fairly strongly that the turnout of women and young women is going to blow this thing up for Trump.

I also think the amount of Republicans sitting out or voting for Harris is also going to be underestimated.

Nevada and AZ are worrying but she won't need them
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,762
8,959
136
I believe fairly strongly that the turnout of women and young women is going to blow this thing up for Trump.

I also think the amount of Republicans sitting out or voting for Harris is also going to be underestimated.

Nevada and AZ are worrying but she won't need them

I think AZ could be needed as quite a few people are nervous about WI
 
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