Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
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Why let scalpers milk when AMD can milk instead??
My hot take is that's a false narrative. The i7s were consistently around $435-$445 adjusted for '24. Even at $499 the 9800X3D will have barely moved the needle for the mainstream gaming king in all these years. I'd hardly call any of it milking, you want to play you gotta pay. Same as it ever was. Don't reference HEDT before Ryzen rocked the boat on cores and threads; those numbers are Oogly = That's four kinds of ugly. And is it just me, or was arrow to the knee initially selling for above MSRP to clear out the hardcores? Not throwing shade there, they do the same with AMD CPUs and GPUs.

Many are conflating a competitive price war which existed for only a brief period in time since the 2000s with being milked. Let me cosplay Capt. Obvious for a moment since it's my favorite holiday this week: Basic performance parity in gaming means MSRPs don't last long in retail, and vendors compete on price in order to win sales.(disregarding Intel's hubris) When there is a clear champ, those products demand a premium, it's that simple. Everything else, in my considered opinion only of course, is complaint culture and psyop/marketing campaign talking points being disseminated. Be they intentional or incidental.
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
6,390
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Everyone gave arrow a Mulligan on not being ready for prime time. The correct way to handle the reviews would have been to say 24H2 is the current official windows version. Arrow Lake is broken on windows 11 at launch. Intel should have this issue fixed in the coming days, and we have full confidence that will happen. We will provide updated numbers at the time. Until then, BIG OOF! What were they thinking sending these out for review? Contrasted to how Zen 5 has been treated, it is highly preferential treatment.

I'll have popcorn for the 9800X3D reviews. Will the dominant narrative be that AMD pricing is bad and they should feel bad? If what I have been reading on message boards is any guide, that is going to be the talking point getting pushed the hardest. If leaks are accurate the correct narrative is that AMD now not only has the best gaming CPUs, but has increased the value by significant gains in productivity.

I’m OK with reviewers testing ARL on 23H2 as you do expect that the 24H2 issues will be resolved with software updates. However, I do think reviewers should have made a much bigger effort to highlight the fact that ARL is broken on 24H2 at the moment. They’re only doing their audience a disservice by not doing so. I’ve already seen people online who bought ARL posting for help because the performance they’re seeing is awful and their systems/games keep crashing. Had reviewers informed the readers better, they probably would have at least delayed purchase or, bare minimum, known what they were getting into and not left wondering why their new build is broken.
 

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
Super Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
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I’m OK with reviewers testing ARL on 23H2 as you do expect that the 24H2 issues will be resolved with software updates. However, I do think reviewers should have made a much bigger effort to highlight the fact that ARL is broken on 24H2 at the moment. They’re only doing their audience a disservice by not doing so. I’ve already seen people online who bought ARL posting for help because the performance they’re seeing is awful and their systems/games keep crashing. Had reviewers informed the readers better, they probably would have at least delayed purchase or, bare minimum, known what they were getting into and not left wondering why their new build is broken.
100% my point. Loyal customers are getting boned with no kiss or lube, to put it crudely. This should not be happening and I question why it was allowed to. And why reviewers are complicit.
 

tsamolotoff

Senior member
May 19, 2019
218
446
136
So basically, the reviewers need to compare ARL 23H2 vs Zen5 24H2, if they want to show each system at their best?
It seems you've misspelled Win10 22h2

Loyal customers are getting boned with no kiss or lube, to put it crudely.
Considering how fast all those leaked reviews disappeared even from Xitter accounts of the leakers, I'd say some black choppers and minivans were involved
 

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
511
865
106
My hot take is that's a false narrative. The i7s were consistently around $435-$445 adjusted for '24. Even at $499 the 9800X3D will have barely moved the needle for the mainstream gaming king in all these years. I'd hardly call any of it milking, you want to play you gotta pay. Same as it ever was. Don't reference HEDT before Ryzen rocked the boat on cores and threads; those numbers are Oogly = That's four kinds of ugly. And is it just me, or was arrow to the knee initially selling for above MSRP to clear out the hardcores? Not throwing shade there, they do the same with AMD CPUs and GPUs.

Many are conflating a competitive price war which existed for only a brief period in time since the 2000s with being milked. Let me cosplay Capt. Obvious for a moment since it's my favorite holiday this week: Basic performance parity in gaming means MSRPs don't last long in retail, and vendors compete on price in order to win sales.(disregarding Intel's hubris) When there is a clear champ, those products demand a premium, it's that simple. Everything else, in my considered opinion only of course, is complaint culture and psyop/marketing campaign talking points being disseminated. Be they intentional or incidental.
Dont get me wrong, Im not whining about it. Halo products are halo products. Honestly, I'd much rather the corpo producing the products rake in the profits than scalpers. I do think that Zen 5 launch pricing was pie in the sky, meant to capitalize on early adopters, as it just didnt make sense compared to contemporary Zen 4 pricing/perf.

Zen 5 X3D, much like RTX 4090, will have no competition and thus will be priced accordingly. And since that competitive landscape will likely not change anytime soon, I expect the price to have lasting power. It is what it is. Im officially expecting $479.99 USD launch pricing. Oh and about that DM earlier disregard it. I spoke too early it seems. 🤷‍♂️
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
259
356
106
Everyone gave arrow a Mulligan on not being ready for prime time. The correct way to handle the reviews would have been to say 24H2 is the current official windows version. Arrow Lake is broken on windows 11 at launch. Intel should have this issue fixed in the coming days, and we have full confidence that will happen. We will provide updated numbers at the time. Until then, BIG OOF! What were they thinking sending these out for review? Contrasted to how Zen 5 has been treated, it is highly preferential treatment.

I'll have popcorn for the 9800X3D reviews. Will the dominant narrative be that AMD pricing is bad and they should feel bad? If what I have been reading on message boards is any guide, that is going to be the talking point getting pushed the hardest. If leaks are accurate the correct narrative is that AMD now not only has the best gaming CPUs, but has increased the value by significant gains in productivity.
Seems like Intel has been out-advertising and outdoing AMD in "thought leadership" forever. If AMD wants to change the narrative, they need to figure out how the publicity game works and learn to play it better as well IMO.

It isn't enough to BE better, you need the masses to BELIEVE you are better. The latter is often more difficult.
 

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
Super Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
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Seems like Intel has been out-advertising and outdoing AMD in "thought leadership" forever. If AMD wants to change the narrative, they need to figure out how the publicity game works and learn to play it better as well IMO.

It isn't enough to BE better, you need the masses to BELIEVE you are better. The latter is often more difficult.
In the DIY/retail space there is no need at present. Performance talks BS walks. All of the polls by tech sites/tubers the last year or so, have AMD at 70%+ share. 5 will get you 50 when the next polls are conducted, 3D CPUs alone will exceed all Intel CPUs put together; they were already close to doing it last go around. As I mused last week, are tech sites/tubers really that influential? They all say don''t build AM4 new, but it stays near the top in sales. It is evident that the user to user network and real bang for buck are winning, and our crowd is not nearly so susceptible to the contrived narratives.

Even prebuilts aren't safe anymore. The Halloween numbers for Intel are expected to be truly frightening. I've read S.I.s were ramping up Ryzen to replace defective raptor. Everyone but Dell of course, and they are doing mass layoffs in concert with Intel. That's how well that's playing out. Perhaps the reason arrow was rushed was to try to stem the bleeding there?

That reviewers are pulling these shenanigans is disappointing but not surprising. It's feels like a last ditch effort and it is falling flat. Nvidia won mindshare of an entire generation while AMD's graphics division floundered. We are watching that playout in the CPU space with AMD winning the mindshare.

I read an Intel exec admit in so many words, that without the contra revenue, credits, and ad costs sharing, Intel is in a tough spot. Millions of defective raptor systems also pushed many clients too far. The shine is off the penny as it were. I could be wrong, that happens a lot, but I like the odds at the moment.

3D has become synonymous with flagship gaming; it's a hell of a combo breaker. I expect no matter what reviewers shovel, gamers always end up with the straight dope. 9800X3D will win more mindshare yet, is my best guess.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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With the pent-up demand due to utter failure of Arrow Lake as a viable gaming upgrade for literally anyone outside of Intel fanatics still rocking Comet or Rocket(!) Lake, AND the possibility of limited stock and thus scalping, AND the fact that increasingly appears that Zen 5 X3D will distinguish itself with the largest gaming margin win vs Intel since Alder Lake vs vanilla Zen 3, I wouldnt put it past AMD to try and slap a $479 USD price tag on it. Why let scalpers milk when AMD can milk instead??

AMD want so bad to not be the "bargain" brand, and if ever they had a product to not be the bargain brand with, its the Zen 5 X3D series.

There is an option that AMD will have enough stock that it will be in stock at all the major outlets, not leaving anything to scalpers that way.

Considering that Zen 5 has not sold at all, AMD can just turn most of the Zen 5 wafers they get from the foundry into 9800x3d.
 

desrever

Senior member
Nov 6, 2021
218
600
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There is an option that AMD will have enough stock that it will be in stock at all the major outlets, not leaving anything to scalpers that way.

Considering that Zen 5 has not sold at all, AMD can just turn most of the Zen 5 wafers they get from the foundry into 9800x3d.
They would need enough packaging capacity which is unlikely since AMD is pretty conservative with how much capacity they buy.

Most likely initial stock will sell out even if priced quite high because anyone waiting to upgrade to ARL would now also be wanting a 9800x3d.
 

Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
876
1,136
136
The real discussion should be about how broken Windows is.
What new CPU both AMD and Intel engineers's many sleepless nights heroically manages to creates doesn't matter if their working will be hindered by rogue Windows.
It's almost at the point AMD and Intel should sue Microsoft for damages.

Personally I'm just curious to understand, how each new version/update can be so horrible in so many different ways?

Frequently we see the whole press community and users gang up against some issue until the responsible company responds and fixes the issue. The same should be done with Microsoft, they need to take responsibility.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,672
3,839
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They would need enough packaging capacity which is unlikely since AMD is pretty conservative with how much capacity they buy.

Most likely initial stock will sell out even if priced quite high because anyone waiting to upgrade to ARL would now also be wanting a 9800x3d.

Lower availability of 7800x3d would seem to indicate that AMD has shifted some of the capacity to Zen 5.

It is quite possible that stocks will be low in November, December, when demand is highest, but should catch up by January.
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
574
1,017
136
It's almost at the point AMD and Intel should sue Microsoft for damages.
LoL, both x86 vendors lick Microsoft's boots in the most pathetic way.

- We have a super closed-source security thing called Pluton. Integrate it now!
- Sure!

- We need a ML APU for our MS stuff!
- Van Gogh and Dragon Crest! Sure!
- Nope!

- Push all the AI ML TOPS to your APUs!
- OK, we will remove the SLC and push TOPS!
- Tough luck, no AI sticker for you!
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,846
5,706
136
Or we could see another reality. People skipping the 9800X3D because they want the fastest x86 CPU on the planet, the 9950X3D?
If you're just a gamer every $ is better spend on getting a better videocard than going for a 9950X3D over a 9800X3D. And despite the fact that all gamers in here are going to get a 5090 at launch, most do somewhat have a budget to balance.
 

inf64

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2011
3,884
4,689
136
Jay is already testing the 9800X3D. He said "All of these charts are about to look very small." He is a bit of a flim-flam man but my gut brain says he is not BSing the troops on this one.
I think it's joever for intel... 9950X is overall better than 285K in pretty much everything (except R24 of course), while X3D will be making everything else look bad in games (7800X3D already does that even now). It is a missed opportunity by intel, for sure.
 
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