Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,717
2,003
136
Yes, get the most expensive and luxurious products in their categories from pasture raised organic eggs and also other various grass fed organic products and then bitch about inflation. These people are fucking evil.

My wife got eggs today at Costco, a 24-count pack was like $6. You could go crazy and get the 60 count pack for $14. These people are fucking idiots.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,345
10,953
136
An aside to the greater point:

Blaming wage suppression on illegal immigration instead of corporate greed is a look. Not a good look, but it is a look.
I'm guessing picking fruit and cutting up chickens would pay a lot more if there weren't any immigrants to do it. Of course, it would likely have to pay so much that no one could afford the fruit or chickens any more.
 
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nOOky

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2004
3,033
2,041
136
Just got back from DC today. I was surprised at the lack of political advertising considering the time and place. Not a lot of Trump love but some. Since it is mostly a blue area I expected more Harris signs, but there were more than Trump. We got to see the two Trump parody statues, they are funny. My congressman is a Republican, but he responded to our Whitehouse tour request and our Democrat senator did not. He also arranged a private tour of congress, and we got to go through the tunnel, so I refrained from saying anything political in front of our tour guides.

Yesterday after our capitol tour we saw a Republicans for Harris vehicle circling the capitol, and an opposing Trump for America van. Someone was selling Trump and Harris gear in the same place, which seemed odd. We were actually leaving to go back to our house when we noticed all sorts of people going the other way. We did not know there was a Harris rally that night, and I talked the wife out of going. We had to get up early for our flights back and it would have kept us up late, but it was pretty cool seeing all of the Harris folks streaming in. They were expecting 52,000, they got 75,000.

 
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NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
3,062
2,664
136
If states refuse to certify we're basically off the map and you can toss the law books out because none of that matters anymore.
Law books, and the constitution, are already being tossed out as we have witnessed by the SCOTUS rulings.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,717
2,003
136
Wow!! Yeah ok, sure you can keep thinking that Trump is going to be great for your bank account.

“The vibe that night was quite positive,” said Ken Langone, the billionaire co-founder of Home Depot and one-time supporter of Trump rival Nikki Haley. “If Trump wins, I think it’s going to be great for the economy.”

Trump Touts CEO Calls as Close Campaign Nears Its End
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,969
3,774
136
AtlasIntel has Trump in a near landslide (well, relatively speaking) with yesterday's released poll. They claim to be the most accurate in 2020 cycle, and are highly rated. Including a 2 point national lead, and nearly a 3 point lead for Trump in PA, part of why team Trump is now feeling very confident.

- But interesting to note that the very luckiest pollsters still averaged being off by more than 2% on each race in the 2020 election. And the median high quality pollster was off by an average of around 5% - on all state and national polls done in the week before the 2020 election.

Proving that the claimed margins of error on every single pollster are ridiculously and horridly understated.



 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,543
38,235
136
Wow!! Yeah ok, sure you can keep thinking that Trump is going to be great for your bank account.

“The vibe that night was quite positive,” said Ken Langone, the billionaire co-founder of Home Depot and one-time supporter of Trump rival Nikki Haley. “If Trump wins, I think it’s going to be great for the economy.”

Trump Touts CEO Calls as Close Campaign Nears Its End

At least from the perspectives of my investment and retirement accounts there is nothing wrong with the economy that Trump’s going to fix.
 
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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,469
1,016
126
AtlasIntel has Trump in a near landslide (well, relatively speaking) with yesterday's released poll. They claim to be the most accurate in 2020 cycle, and are highly rated. Including a 2 point national lead, and nearly a 3 point lead for Trump in PA, part of why team Trump is now feeling very confident.

- But interesting to note that the very luckiest pollsters still averaged being off by more than 2% on each race in the 2020 election. And the median high quality pollster was off by an average of around 5% - on all state and national polls done in the week before the 2020 election.

Proving that the claimed margins of error on every single pollster are ridiculously and horridly understated.

View attachment 110629
View attachment 110630
They have had Trump winning the entire time. IIRC their sample skews R by about 3% or so and their cross tabs have been bonkers with Trump winning the women vote by about 1% while winning 30% of the vote AA and close to 50% of Hispanic vote. They also have Trump hitting 40% AA votes in most swing states.
 
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,969
3,774
136
They have had Trump winning the entire time. IIRC their sample skews R by about 5% or so and their cross tabs have been bonkers with Trump winning the women vote by about 1% while winning 30% of the vote AA and close to 50% of Hispanic vote.
Yep, still true in the linked file having the cross tabs. Trump getting 28% of the Black vote, winning with women, and 41% of Hispanic vote. The crosstabs have been far too consistent for last 3 months for them - and quite far outliers with everyone else - seems to imply that they are re-using the exact same voters for each "new" poll, and that initial selection wasn't the best.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,381
8,687
136
They have had Trump winning the entire time. IIRC their sample skews R by about 3%

I too am scared of this.. a lot of people say they don't like Trump but they get in the ballot box and just vote for him anyways.

But I try and calm myself down and
 

evident

Lifer
Apr 5, 2005
12,028
644
126
AtlasIntel has Trump in a near landslide (well, relatively speaking) with yesterday's released poll. They claim to be the most accurate in 2020 cycle, and are highly rated. Including a 2 point national lead, and nearly a 3 point lead for Trump in PA, part of why team Trump is now feeling very confident.

- But interesting to note that the very luckiest pollsters still averaged being off by more than 2% on each race in the 2020 election. And the median high quality pollster was off by an average of around 5% - on all state and national polls done in the week before the 2020 election.

Proving that the claimed margins of error on every single pollster are ridiculously and horridly understated.

View attachment 110629
View attachment 110630
 

I'dluv2

Member
Oct 21, 2022
154
276
106
link

For those of you who know who Allan Lichtman is, you know his presidential predictions are something to take seriously. For those who don't know, Lichtman 77, has correctly predicted 9 out of the past 10 presidential elections dating back to 1984.

And this election he has predicted Kamala Harris will win the White House, according to a video first reported by The New York Times.

Lichtman developed the metrics for his predictions with the help of seismologist and geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The system uses 13 historical factors or “keys” to determine presidential races − four of those factors are based on politics, seven on performance, and two on the candidate’s personality. Essentially the metric is a true/false questionnaire from the incumbent party's perspective. If the incumbent party's answer to the question is true, a point is awarded. If the answer is false, the point goes to the challenger.

If six or more of the keys are against the party in the White House, it's predicted to lose. Otherwise, Lichtman forecasts the party in power will win again.
 

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,268
3,054
136
I'm guessing picking fruit and cutting up chickens would pay a lot more if there weren't any immigrants to do it. Of course, it would likely have to pay so much that no one could afford the fruit or chickens any more.
What are you kidding? All those out of work middle aged coal miners and factory workers whose jobs were "stolen by illegals" will jump at the chance to work long hours in poor conditions with little benefits (all of which is an issue that we basically have one step removed from slave labor, but that's a whole nother discussion).

Let's be clear. There's a very small number of red-blooded 'Muricans willing to do a lot of the jobs migrants (illegal or otherwise) are willing to do. I have watched my wife's sister and brother-in-law work 7 day weeks for years to try to save money after they came here. Not that I think that is particularly healthy, I'd prefer work-life balance. Almost every immigrant I know works their ass off and I suspect a lot of Americans just don't like it because it makes them look lazy.

Well if Trump gets in and actually follows through--which I think he will not, he's just trying to appeal to racists and won't give one shit about the "immigrant crisis" if he's President...though the Project 2025 people are another story--all of you poor downtrodden people who have been cheated out of being able to work or whatever you are complaining about can have it. Don't forget the sunscreen when you are out there in the fields for 12 hours.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,062
7,588
136
That immunity gift to Trump the conservatives in the SCOTUS blessed him with sure looks like a double edged sword with Harris running even with him.

I really do wonder what Harris will do with that gift if she wins next Tuesday, especially if by some miracle the Dems eke out wins in the House and Senate.

As an aside, it still seems strangely odd to me that given the alarmingly burdensome self-inflicted troubles Trump has managed to get himself into over these many years, he is still able to remain competitive for the most powerful job our nation has to offer. Something's so so wrong with that.
 
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