Nate Silver estimates the winner of PA has a ~90% chance of winning the overall election.Im thinking PA WI and MI decide the election.
And Pennsylvania is still the tie breaking swing state!
I would welcome this if it wasn't for the dead plant and animal life that would result. Humans need a reminder that we aren't the dominant force on this planet.
That would be something!!
I'm starting to lean this way but I don't want to jinx it.
If that turns out to be the case then you will never hear the end of it... "Joe coulda done it too..." .
I'm starting to lean this way but I don't want to jinx it.
I assume this is your 2028 map?
The average Trump lover unironically believes this is the most likely outcome.
That's definitely my 2028 map.I assume this is your 2028 map?
They believe anything else means the election was rigged.The average Trump lover unironically believes this is the most likely outcome.
Florida is in fact red-shifting deeper into the red. Could very well be Trump+6 this year, up from Trump +2 or 3 last couple cycles.How does Florida come back to being a purple state? I feel like all of the old curmudgeons moving there is just going to perpetually keep it red going forward. I don't know enough about their population to think otherwise...
Here's the thing I struggle with: I think it is a given that Trump's base has shrunk, not grown.I'll give two, because it's all based on turnout and no one knows.
Cautiously optimistic: Harris 319
US fascists want to find out: Trump 302
I'd prefer something similar to the first map, but won't be stunned if it looks like the second map.
I mentioned in a post in the recent past that Trump would probably get close to 80M votes this time around and got shellacked for it. As if Trump didn't pick up millions of votes as he was totally shitting the bed during a worldwide pandemic. To be clear, if Harris maintains the exact amount of votes Biden got, and Trump loses votes from last time, there's almost no way Harris doesn't win...and yet polls (that don't matter) aren't showing that. Unless the polls are extremely fucked (and really really don't matter) then Trump will almost assuredly pick up more voters from 2020. Hey, I hope not, but I wouldn't put money on him getting less votes than last time...almost by pure population growth alone he's going to pick up more votes. But if I'm wrong and he loses votes, I'll proudly say I was 100% wrong, as I can relax instead of preparing to fight fascism from the inside...what a relief.Here's the thing I struggle with: I think it is a given that Trump's base has shrunk, not grown.
There have been many "last straw" moments over the last 8 years, several of which were massive. His handling of covid turned off a lot of people. January 6th turned off a lot of people. The classified documents turned off a lot of people. His statements about the military turned off a lot of people. Losing Roe turned off a LOT of people.
On top of that, his denial of covid killed off a shitload of his most die hard shit eaters. And yet, from 2016 to 2020 he gained 9 million votes. Where the fuck did 9 million new voters come from?
16 million more people voted for Biden than Hillary. Presumably these people either liked Biden more than Hillary or despised Trump enough to vote against him instead of for him, 3rd party, or sitting out like they did in 2016. Presumably Trump's 9 million had to be made up of people who either hated Biden more than they hated Hillary, or gained a newfound love of Trump that they didn't already have in 2016.
So, in the 4 years between 2016 and 2020 elections we have 25 million extra voters. We can chalk roughly 12 million of those to population growth. If we generously give Trump half of those new voters, and generously pretend that a roughly equal number of people crossed the aisle (Hillary->Trump vs. Trump->Biden), that means at least 6 million people developed a new found love for Trump.
That's after hundreds of thousands of his most loyal supporters died from covid. I just don't understand how he gained voters after all that. It's not like he had the benefit of being able to blame everything going wrong in the world on a Democrat in the White House, he was in the White House...
I strongly, strongly believe there's physically less voters for Trump than 2020, and far less than 2016. I think much of the 'red' we're seeing this election is false; smoke and mirrors. I also believe that Conservatives will finagle some bullshit at the local and SC level to claim the election.Here's the thing I struggle with: I think it is a given that Trump's base has shrunk, not grown.
There have been many "last straw" moments over the last 8 years, several of which were massive. His handling of covid turned off a lot of people. January 6th turned off a lot of people. The classified documents turned off a lot of people. His statements about the military turned off a lot of people. Losing Roe turned off a LOT of people.
On top of that, his denial of covid killed off a shitload of his most die hard shit eaters. And yet, from 2016 to 2020 he gained 9 million votes. Where the fuck did 9 million new voters come from?
16 million more people voted for Biden than Hillary. Presumably these people either liked Biden more than Hillary or despised Trump enough to vote against him instead of for him, 3rd party, or sitting out like they did in 2016. Presumably Trump's 9 million had to be made up of people who either hated Biden more than they hated Hillary, or gained a newfound love of Trump that they didn't already have in 2016.
So, in the 4 years between 2016 and 2020 elections we have 25 million extra voters. We can chalk roughly 12 million of those to population growth. If we generously give Trump half of those new voters, and generously pretend that a roughly equal number of people crossed the aisle (Hillary->Trump vs. Trump->Biden), that means at least 3 million people developed a new found love for Trump.
That's after hundreds of thousands of his most loyal supporters died from covid. I just don't understand how he gained voters after all that. It's not like he had the benefit of being able to blame everything going wrong in the world on a Democrat in the White House, he was in the White House...
I would not be surprised if Trump gets around 80 million votes. I'm hoping Kamala gets close to 90 because of Roe and everything else, but like you I would not be surprised if she gets barely more than Biden. I'm hoping there are deep systemic issues with polling like we've seen with most elections since 2020.I mentioned in a post in the recent past that Trump would probably get close to 80M votes this time around and got shellacked for it. As if Trump didn't pick up millions of votes as he was totally shitting the bed during a worldwide pandemic. To be clear, if Harris maintains the exact amount of votes Biden got, and Trump loses votes from last time, there's almost no way Harris doesn't win...and yet polls (that don't matter) aren't showing that. Unless the polls are extremely fucked (and really really don't matter) then Trump will almost assuredly pick up more voters from 2020. Hey, I hope not, but I wouldn't put money on him getting less votes than last time...almost by pure population growth alone he's going to pick up more votes. But if I'm wrong and he loses votes, I'll proudly say I was 100% wrong, as I can relax instead of preparing to fight fascism from the inside...what a relief.
Anyway, Harris isn't the perfect candidate, and there's 70+M voters who look at an overtly authoritarian shitbag like Trump and say stupid shit out loud like, "he's a businessman and a country of 330+M people should be ran like a business". Or, "gas was cheaper during a worldwide pandemic recession so it being more expensive now means Biden is bad". Literally millions of fucking morons who say that shit and are registered to vote and will vote. We have a few right here on these forums. Hilarious but tragic is the way of the world.
Then you pile onto that, Harris is a BLACK WOMAN - an out-group member - and you're going to tweak the amygdala of millions of non-voting morons to come out and effectuate their racism, because without their racism, they know they're just run-of-the-mill-fucking-losers (losers will do better under Democrats, which is why many of them would never vote Democratic...that's also a way of the world). That's a real demographic, and the Republican Party has been constructed from the ground up for the past 70 years to recognize and empower those fucking losers. Feature, not a bug.
I remain cautiously optimistic, hence my top map pick of Harris. I do have money on a Harris win, nevermind the functioning of a fracturing society in the midst of societal collapse (it can not be avoided, only mitigated...and almost every American is going to do far worse if it's Republicans guiding the mitigation).
I am also prepared to be let down by my fellow Americans deciding that overt fascism is worth a shot. Due to my own status/privileges, I'll be OK enough to have a front-seat view of the catastrophe without being Boxcar'd early on, and I'll definitely look forward to helping my fascist-enabling fellow citizens to "find out". I have my avatar and my signature for a reason.
Here's hoping the "American People" can reason themselves around fascism. I'm cautiously optimistic and yet skeptical. 2016 PTSD is going to take awhile to move past.
That's what I thought about 2020, but he did pick up quite a few. This time around he can pick up all the clowns that are mad about inflation or our "open" borders.Why would Trump pick up more voters and why would Harris lose more votes?
My prediction is that Harris picks up a higher percentage of the female vote as well as “former” republicans. I don’t see where Trump picks up any meaningful demographics.
Including the millions that have somehow completely forgotten just how much a mess he made of COVID and think he was somehow spectacular for the economy ~ in how he didn't destroy the economy he inherited from Obama in his first 2 years (mostly due to lacking the votes to push through all the destruction he desired)That's what I thought about 2020, but he did pick up quite a few. This time around he can pick up all the clowns that are mad about inflation or our "open" borders.