Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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evident

Lifer
Apr 5, 2005
12,042
652
126
Voted today. Noticed the absence of an option for voting by party. They asked for my name and 2 different people said they had me on their list. Still wouldn't let me vote twice.
Pennsylvania? They removed vote by party I think back in 2020 as part as some BS compromise to the State GOP for vote by mail i think.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,130
136
Various early indicators seem to be saying turnout will exceed 2020, perhaps substantially in some places.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,568
31,325
136
Various early indicators seem to be saying turnout will exceed 2020, perhaps substantially in some places.
I'm guessing close to 90 million for Harris and somewhere around 80 million for Trump. 2% MOE for Harris and 5% MOE for Trump. 400+ EC votes for Harris.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
23,539
21,770
136
I didn't phonebank this weekend so I'm cold-calling Georgia voters as we speak. The kamala website did not let me choose a state today, it just started me on Georgia for now.

I gotta start reading some turnout and exit polling data soon. I'll try to post links if I find anything good.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,130
136
I didn't phonebank this weekend so I'm cold-calling Georgia voters as we speak. The kamala website did not let me choose a state today, it just started me on Georgia for now.

I gotta start reading some turnout and exit polling data soon. I'll try to post links if I find anything good.

I assume they are mobbed with people trying to help out in the rust belt and shunting people to the sun belt states instead.
 
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BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
64,661
13,012
146
You'd better check whether you even can do that at this point. In Arizona they have to have been received by today, so unless you already have the correct ballot to submit and are gonna put it in a drop box for it to be counted, you might need to just go to the booth, if you want your vote to be counted.
IIRC, the Que is in CA. As long as his ballot is postmarked before 8pm today, it will be counted.
 
Dec 10, 2005
25,511
8,928
136
It's going to be a hell of a win if Harris pulls it off, given the worldwide incumbent backlash across recent elections around the world.
 
Dec 10, 2005
25,511
8,928
136
If it works out this way it's probably because Trump squandered almost every advantage and R crafted near total abortion bans that are getting women killed are, in fact, really unpopular.
Yep. Republicans could have had a layup of an election, but they decided to scatter about a ton of rakes for themselves to step on.
 
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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,568
31,325
136
If it works out this way it's probably because Trump squandered almost every advantage and R crafted near total abortion bans that are getting women killed are, in fact, really unpopular.
If Trump gets crushed our saving grace will always be how enormously inept he and his campaign are and always have been. I mean, conservatives/Republicans have been increasingly inept in general, but nobody, and I mean nobody, does inept better than Trump. Big league amateurs.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,130
136
If Trump gets crushed our saving grace will always be how enormously inept he and his campaign are and always have been. I mean, conservatives/Republicans have been increasingly inept in general, but nobody, and I mean nobody, does inept better than Trump. Big league amateurs.

Wiles and LaCivita are not stupid but there are just limitations when dealing with Trump and MAGAworld. Limitations that the last few weeks have really laid bare when many voters start paying attention to the election.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,185
3,108
136
It's going to be a hell of a win if Harris pulls it off, given the worldwide incumbent backlash across recent elections around the world.
The LAT wrote a few days ago that most generic (R) candidates could have cruised to a win in this tough electoral environment for incumbents. Although the "fundamentals" (as Lichtman might say) should favor the Dems.

I wrote should because the NYT had a feature yesterday with its last look at "independent" voters who'd just made up their minds. It was a like a round table and these 14 or so people were quoted. And you had a dumb mofo that said she wants prices to drop back to where they were in 2019, and that's why she's choosing Trump. I'm trying to stay optimistic but a large chunk of the electorate is dumb as rocks, and they aren't all MAGAts. I really don't know who's gonna win, but people have made it quite clear that their enduring "vibes" this year are about (past) inflation* and the migration crisis.

Just as in 2016, Trump just needs on the order of hundreds of thousands of convincible rubes in just the right few states to steal the EC.

* Past inflation = current prices. People don't care (or know) what the latest BLS CPI is. And they certainly don't know how 100% tariffs on Mexican goods would work in the real world.
 
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nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,587
14,290
136
The LAT wrote a few days ago that most generic (R) candidates could have cruised to a win in this tough electoral environment for incumbents. Although the "fundamentals" (as Lichtman might say) should favor the Dems.

I wrote should because the NYT had a feature yesterday with its last look at "independent" voters who'd just made up their minds. It was a like a round table and these 14 or so people were quoted. And you had a dumb mofo that said she wants prices to drop back to where they were in 2019, and that's why she's choosing Trump. I'm trying to stay optimistic but a large chunk of the electorate is dumb as rocks, and they aren't all MAGAts. I really don't know who's gonna win, but people have made it quite clear that their enduring "vibes" this year are about (past) inflation* and the migration crisis.

Just as in 2016, Trump just needs on the order of hundreds of thousands of convincible rubes in just the right few states to steal the EC.

* Past inflation = current prices. People don't care (or know) what the latest BLS CPI is. And they certainly don't know how 100% tariffs on Mexican goods would work in the real world.
Mexico would pay for them, duh, just like the big, beautiful wall!
 

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,081
136
it's still quite surreal the difference in signs compared to 2016 and 2020 around here.

And for the record, I don't believe any conclusions can be drawn from it, most likely. For example, I don't think I saw a single Biden sign in my county in 2020 yet he barely won it.

The main difference is that I see far fewer Trump signs than 2016 and 2020. And since Trump signs have normally been 90+% of the signs, that means fewer overall. Harris signs are relatively few and far between, about the same as Hillary ones in 2016 and as mentioned, more than Biden had in 2020. If I had to guess (and I do), Trump voters are simply just used to having him as the option and can't be arsed to put out a sign.

Political ads for Senate and POTUS, and the pot amendment have been about equal. Not that I watch much tv, I only caught ads during some live sporting events. The abortion amendment I'm not sure I saw any that were against it (that means the only ads I saw were in favor of allowing abortion). Probably the GOP rightly feels that the less said about abortion the better. You always see their holy warrior candidates trying to walk back for their support for it like a bunch of worms.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
86,098
51,666
136
The LAT wrote a few days ago that most generic (R) candidates could have cruised to a win in this tough electoral environment for incumbents. Although the "fundamentals" (as Lichtman might say) should favor the Dems.

I wrote should because the NYT had a feature yesterday with its last look at "independent" voters who'd just made up their minds. It was a like a round table and these 14 or so people were quoted. And you had a dumb mofo that said she wants prices to drop back to where they were in 2019, and that's why she's choosing Trump. I'm trying to stay optimistic but a large chunk of the electorate is dumb as rocks, and they aren't all MAGAts. I really don't know who's gonna win, but people have made it quite clear that their enduring "vibes" this year are about (past) inflation* and the migration crisis.

Just as in 2016, Trump just needs on the order of hundreds of thousands of convincible rubes in just the right few states to steal the EC.

* Past inflation = current prices. People don't care (or know) what the latest BLS CPI is. And they certainly don't know how 100% tariffs on Mexican goods would work in the real world.
It has been an enduring source of frustration for me that so few of the pieces that (I think correctly) discuss how voters are mad about inflation do not mention that it's the near-universal evaluation of economists that Trump's policies would make inflation much, much worse. That seems like highly relevant information!
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
23,539
21,770
136
Just read that Philly is about to hit the 2020 turnout total by 1pm. That would be amazing.

This country is fucked. First of all, if Kamala was a straight white guy with a decent personality and the exact same policies and campaign, they would win.

The other thing is the media. I'm not expecting the media to educate everyone on the intricacies of a global economy and the residual effects of Covid and supply chain management or anything, but they don't even bother to try.

It wouldn't be that hard to explain that inflation is not a US problem, it's a global problem due to the after effects of Covid, and that the US has lowered inflation and recovered economically faster than any other first world country. Just keep it simple, I said it in one sentence that wasn't even long.

But the media is practically worthless. The media is one of the primary reason Trump is even in this. And I'm not talking fox news here, but all of the mainstream big media. They are totally culpable if Trump wins.
 
Last edited:

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,130
136
It has been an enduring source of frustration for me that so few of the pieces that (I think correctly) discuss how voters are mad about inflation do not mention that it's the near-universal evaluation of economists that Trump's policies would make inflation much, much worse. That seems like highly relevant information!

Surveys that actually asked the tariff/deportation questions saw support rapidly erode when tradeoffs (higher prices everywhere, slower economy, massive labor shortage) were made clear. Harris reframing the issue as Trump wanting to tax lower and middle income people to pay for his tax cuts for the wealthy/corps was probably the best move that she could make on this front.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,130
136
Just read that Philly is about to hit the 2020 turnout total by 1pm. That would be amazing.

Yeah turnout in urban Philly and Detroit are looking quite strong. If Rs were hoping for a collapse in these areas they are going to be disappointed.
 
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