Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Tigerick · Aug 22, 2022

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	12 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	8P + 16E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	36 MB ?	12 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

511 · Nov 5, 2024

Hitman928 said:
N2 with GAA goes HVM in H2 2025.

You know from historical trends that Apple gets a year of exclusivity from new TSMC Process not iterations So N3B entered in HVM in H2 22 we got it in iPhone in Q323 same with 5nm H2 19 production we got iphone in Q320 with N5 so do you think this time will be different ?

Hitman928 said:
The timing of the comment matters though, if it was before 18a was downgraded, then the comment may no longer apply.

This matters but i don't remember the exact level of downgrade iirc 20A was 10-15% better than I3 and 18A was 5-10% better than 20A and we got 18A 15% better than I3

Hitman928 · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
You know from historical trends that Apple gets a year of exclusivity from new TSMC Process not iterations So N3B entered in HVM in H2 22 we got it in iPhone in Q323 same with 5nm H2 19 production we got iphone in Q320 with N5 so do you think this time will be different ?

There are rumors that Apple won’t be the first N2 customer but I don’t really care, I was just pointing out when N2 hits HVM. Whether AMD gets a crack at it then is a different discussion point.

511 said:
This matters but i don't remember the exact level of downgrade iirc 20A was 10-15% better than I3 and 18A was 5-10% better than 20A and we got 18A 15% better than I3

Yes, it dropped from 26.5% improvement over I3 to 15%, at least in PPW. That would be enough to drop the comparison from N3P to N3E.

511 · Nov 5, 2024

Hitman928 said:
There are rumors that Apple won’t be the first N2 customer but I don’t really care, I was just pointing out when N2 hits HVM. Whether AMD gets a crack at it then is a different discussion point.

Those will be rumours cause apple gets the first wafer out of every new node that is guaranteed for last few years

Hitman928 said:
Yes, it dropped from 26.5% improvement over I3 to 15%, at least in PPW. That would be enough to drop the comparison from N3P to N3E.

N3P -> N3E is just 5% difference according to TSMC
Those estimates were 2022 and TSMC commented in 24 and intel published details last quarter to Public inside the ecosystem everyone has the info.we still have IEDM in December we will know by than but those are within estimates(15.5-26.5%)

Intel, TSMC to detail 2nm processes at IEDM

Intel's attempts to get back to the leading-edge in chipmaking and foundry TSMC's steps defining that leading-edge will be on show at this year's International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) coming up in December, in San Francisco.

www.eenewseurope.com

oak8292 · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
Those will be rumours cause apple gets the first wafer out of every new node that is guaranteed for last few years

N3P -> N3E is just 5% difference according to TSMC
Those estimates were 2022 and TSMC commented in 24 and intel published details last quarter to Public inside the ecosystem everyone has the info.we still have IEDM in December we will know by than but those are within estimates(15.5-26.5%)

Intel, TSMC to detail 2nm processes at IEDM

Intel's attempts to get back to the leading-edge in chipmaking and foundry TSMC's steps defining that leading-edge will be on show at this year's International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) coming up in December, in San Francisco.

www.eenewseurope.com

Actually, Huawei was the lead customer on N5 but that was just before they lost access to production at TSMC. Huawei had become a member of the 10%+ revenue club with Apple at TSMC. TSMC briefly cancelled some EUV orders when Huawei was put on the blacklist. This was back in pandemic days and TSMC quickly reordered the EUV when demand went through the roof.

“Kirin 9000 chipset which is manufactured on a new 5nm manufacturing node,”

Huawei Announces Mate 40 Series: Powered by 15.3bn Transistors 5nm Kirin 9000

www.anandtech.com

If Nvidia has placed a large enough order they maybe able to ‘co-produce’ with Apple. However, it seems unlikely based on the size of their die but they may be a really fast follow on Apple. Nvidia has now joined Apple in the 10%+ revenue club.

Analyst estimates Nvidia is now TSMC's second largest customer accounting for 11% of revenue in 2023

Nvidia paid TSMC $7.73 billion in 2023 for its services

www.tomshardware.com

SiliconFly · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
Just for reference
View attachment 110997

It's amazing that Skymont is better than RPC & Zen 4. Never expected this much. Like a reviewer said, Skymont deserves a gold star!

511 said:
Saved you the effort 🙂
Imagine Clearwater forest with 5-7% more powerful core than Skymont core that is not held by fabric and 288 of them on 18A

CWF with 288 Darkmont cores should mop the floor with AMD's server product line.

GTracing said:
Yeah, Intel might actually beat AMD in server performance again.

With 288 powerful Darkmont cores, CWF will be the undisputed leader next year.

OneEng2 said:
So a theoretical AMD Zen 6 384C/768T part is what Skymont would be facing for the majority of its existence.

A theoretical AMD Zen 6 384C/768T part is not scheduled for 2025, probably 2026 (if it exists). Assuming it does exists, then it may be facing of a theoretical 576C/576T Intel server part based on Arctic Wolf cores. AMD wouldn't stand a chance.

OneEng2 said:
I am guessing that the truth lies somewhere in between. N2>18A>N3P

Thats right. The original 18A had density very close to N2 & performance slightly ahead of N2. The revised 18A specs is exactly what you just posted (N2>18A>N3P). Also, N2 is coming out with only GAA, but 18A is coming out with both GAA & BSPD. Exciting times ahead.

OneEng2 · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
I thought it was 30% from the benches done by David Huang.I wasn't talking about AVX-512 Performance cause Skymont will loose there Also 2nm GAA is not shipping before Q4 2026 . Intel has 1 year and than after 9 months if Zen6 we have Arctic wolf with 512C/T rouge river forest 🙂 in 2027

N2 is H2 2025. N2P H2 2026. Based on Zen6 roadmaps and TSMC roadmaps and information on Zen 6 showing which nodes it is planned to be produced on, I put the info together in a single speculation of 32 core CCD's of Zen 6 on N2 not too long after Q4 2025 making the Zen 6 part the competition to Clearwater vs current Turin.

OneEng2 · Nov 5, 2024

SiliconFly said:
CWF with 288 Darkmont cores should mop the floor with AMD's server product line.

With 288 powerful Darkmont cores, CWF will be the undisputed leader next year.

A theoretical AMD Zen 6 384C/768T part is not scheduled for 2025, probably 2026 (if it exists). Assuming it does exists, then it may be facing of a theoretical 576C/576T Intel server part based on Arctic Wolf cores. AMD wouldn't stand a chance.

CWF isn't going to be released until late 2025. The replacement will not be out until 2027. Still, Intel is going to have to come up with more than a 288 core DC part if they want to compete with Zen 6 in 2026. Furthermore, they better be bringing back SMT if they wish to have any hope of hanging with Zen in DC IMO.

I think that we will get much clarity as CWF design takes shape. It is my understanding that the CWF replacement will be on 14A .... which makes sense as it will be competing with N2P in 2027.

... so Intel's server future parts success is largely reliant on Intel's process roadmap being executed IMO.

Though I could be mistaken.

Doug S · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
Those will be rumours cause apple gets the first wafer out of every new node that is guaranteed for last few years

Apple has to have something to put the chips in. If N2 comes too late for A19/M5, what would they do with that first wafer?

Now, I'm still of the opinion that given the N2 timeline, in particular having reached the 80% threshold for risk production in late May, that N2 may reach mass production before H2. Or even if it doesn't "officially" start mass production until H2, that they might be producing enough wafers for Apple to do A19P and M5 on it. Apple would have to accept some risk of slightly less than mass production quality yields if they take early wafers, but I think they'd be fine with that since they'd only be looking at a few percent points of difference.

Not saying that will happen, just that's the way I'd bet knowing what we know now.

But like I said, if Apple does not use N2 for A19/M5, and it is delivered in H2 (almost certainly Q3 based on the above) then Apple isn't going to have much for it. I suppose they could delay M5 a bit to wait for it, but Apple Silicon volume is much smaller than iPhone volume so other customers would be able to get wafers a lot sooner than if they are also competing with A19P.

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

GTracing said:
I also found this interesting. We've seen other reviewers report on the high memory latency for the p-cores, but I haven't seen memory latency numbers for the e-cores. 194 ns is so high that I wonder if they're doing something wrong with the testing. If it's accurate then it makes the e-cores that much more impressive.

So the memory system hobbled Skymont is 21% faster per clock in Int and 42% faster in FP compared to Raptormont. Not seeing 30% in Int may just be due to this. The FP is likely even more crippled because it has higher bandwidth requirements.

The Lion Cove P core with 3x the core size is 7.7% faster in Int and 3.2% faster in FP per clock compared to Skymont. So there's a direct possibility that Darkmont might be entirely Lion Cove class.

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

@GTracing What the heck?

Geekerwan overclocked the following:
-NGU from 2.6GHz to 3.2GHz
-D2D from 2.1GHz to 3.5GHz
-Ring from 3.8GHz to 4.2GHz

The E core latency went down from 194.2ns to 113ns or a 72% difference. D2D OC is 67%, so a slow D2D may be responsible for the super high latency. I would have liked him to test perf/clock after the overclocks.

cannedlake240 · Nov 5, 2024

OneEng2 said:
replacement will not be out until 2027

Word is it's(Rouge river Forest) canned to redirect resource to AI or for plain cost cutting... So 192C? Diamond Rapids and it's successor, Coral Rapids was it, may be all they have against AMD until 2028-30, when the E core is planned to make a debut. Pats remarks about reducing server CPU roadmap complexity seemingly reflect that too

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

MS_AT said:
That is expected, the advantage that Raptor had, wider registers, was taken away, with those compiler settings. For int it is less relevant as x264 will be the only subtest to benefit, but from FP point of view it's a different story.

Arrowlake has a super slow D2D, which is likely a big reason why it has super high memory latency. Geekerwan overclocked D2D by 67%, NGU by 23%, and Cache by 10.5% which lowered the latency to 110ns from 194ns.

While a different compiler setting might have made Raptorlake faster, a fixed fabric would also make Skymont faster.

@SiliconFly I doubt core counts are going to be that high. Process gains are really slowing down, and they'll need to spend whatever they get on a new uarch. No room for more cores, plus you run into scaling issues.

cannedlake240 · Nov 5, 2024

gdansk said:
You're ignoring clock rates
Considerable disappointment follows those extrapolating from only IPC.

Skymont doesn't regress clocks on desktop, and can be overclocked to 5Ghz. Even if 18A is overall worse than N3B(which isn't a given), the core should still clock way above the paltry 3Ghz of SRF. Using smaller 18A tiles is also a plus for perf on CLF

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
Skymont doesn't regress clocks on desktop, and can be overclocked to 5Ghz. Even if 18A is overall worse than N3B(which isn't a given), the core should still clock way above the paltry 3Ghz of SRF. Using smaller 18A tiles is also a plus for perf on CLF

The ultimate performance depends on if they get everything right, and uncore performance is even more important on a server CPU with many cores.

Granite Rapids goes from being 20% difference in 1P to 40% difference in 2P, because it doesn't scale well. Clearly, they need to fix this, but the reality is the difference exists.

Since CWF has 288 cores I doubt clock higher. It seems Sierra and Zen 4c clocked roughly similar so the differences are going to be elsewhere, like clocks, fabric, and platform.

CWF is also on the Birch Stream platform, meaning socket upgradable. The problem is if Birch Stream has a scaling issue, CWF will inherit this to a degree.

cannedlake240 · Nov 5, 2024

DavidC1 said:
The ultimate performance depends on if they get everything right, and uncore performance is even more important on a server CPU with many cores.

Granite Rapids goes from being 20% difference in 1P to 40% difference in 2P, because it doesn't scale well. Clearly, they need to fix this, but the reality is the difference exists.

Since CWF has 288 cores I doubt clock higher. It seems Sierra and Zen 4c clocked roughly similar so the differences are going to be elsewhere, like clocks, fabric, and platform.

Wasn't it suggested in one of the uarch deep dives that the 3 cycle L1 was traded for more speed? Also CLF supposedly has over 2x amount of LLC found on SRF, so over 432mb on base tiles...

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

Mobile vs Desktop differences are real.
Arrowlake's cores are still faster per clock than Lunarlake's cores.

Lion Cove is 7% faster on Arrowlake than on Lunarlake. Skymont on Arrowlake is almost 26% faster per clock over Skymont on Lunarlake.

14900K's E cores are 14% faster than Crestmont(a faster core) on Meteorlake.

cannedlake240 said:
Wasn't it suggested in one of the uarch deep dives that the 3 cycle L1 was traded for more speed? Also CLF supposedly has over 2x amount of the LLC found on SRF, so over 432mb on base tiles...

Yes, but that's for Desktops. They'll be thermally limited with 288 cores.

SiliconFly · Nov 5, 2024

OneEng2 said:
CWF isn't going to be released until late 2025. The replacement will not be out until 2027. Still, Intel is going to have to come up with more than a 288 core DC part if they want to compete with Zen 6 in 2026. Furthermore, they better be bringing back SMT if they wish to have any hope of hanging with Zen in DC IMO.

I think that we will get much clarity as CWF design takes shape. It is my understanding that the CWF replacement will be on 14A .... which makes sense as it will be competing with N2P in 2027.

Not necessarily. I think the successor to CWF is called Rogue River Forest or something. And if it's there it should be based on Arctic Wolf cores on 18A-P. And based on the cadence (SRF 2024H3, CWF 2025H3 expected), it should be 2026H3. It should go head-to-head with Zen 6 server parts.

OneEng2 said:
... so Intel's server future parts success is largely reliant on Intel's process roadmap being executed IMO.

Though I could be mistaken.

That part is true. IFS (18A) execution is critical now. Pat openly said he's bet everything on 18A being on time. CWF & Panther Lake are on 18A. Diamond Rapids too I think (or maybe 18A-P). If 18A fails, Intel fails. They'll not only lose market share, but also mind-share, respect and most importantly customer trust. If 18A fails to deliver on time, I strongly believe Intel will end up in the chopping block and will be sold for parts.

DavidC1 said:
The Lion Cove P core with 3x the core size is 7.7% faster in Int and 3.2% faster in FP per clock compared to Skymont. So there's a direct possibility that Darkmont might be entirely Lion Cove class.

I too think Darkmont will be very close to Lion Cove. But Arctic Wolf should be the one that will put it on par with a Lion Cove core on almost all aspects.

Sadly, porting the P core to industry standard tools, making it very modular, agnostic, etc, didn't make any difference. P core is now acting as a dead weight for Intel.

cannedlake240 said:
Word is it's(Rouge river Forest) canned to redirect resource to AI or for plain cost cutting... So 192C? Diamond Rapids and it's successor, Coral Rapids was it, may be all they have against AMD until 2028-30, when the E core is planned to make a debut. Pats remarks about reducing server CPU roadmap complexity seemingly reflect that too

Starting 2026, if Intel wants to cancel any server part, it would be the P core part rather than the E core part considering Arctic Wolf will be out by then which will be better than the then P core in almost all aspects not only in PPW but also in PPA.

Meteor Late · Nov 5, 2024

DavidC1 said:
Mobile vs Desktop differences are real.
Arrowlake's cores are still faster per clock than Lunarlake's cores.

Lion Cove is 7% faster on Arrowlake than on Lunarlake. Skymont on Arrowlake is almost 26% faster per clock over Skymont on Lunarlake.

14900K's E cores are 14% faster than Crestmont(a faster core) on Meteorlake.

Yes, but that's for Desktops. They'll be thermally limited with 288 cores.

LPDDR vs DDR is one of the main differences? what else?

DavidC1 · Nov 5, 2024

Area-wise, Skymont is competitive to Oryon-M. While Skymont seems much wider, it's 0.9mm2 for Oryon-M vs 1.15mm2 for Skymont, meaning the additions to Skymont isn't big as the high level specs suggest.

Also, consider the 1.78 for SpecInt is Skymont in Arrowlake. I think Oryon-M is around that level. So if you assume Skymont is 10% faster, then it's even better for Skymont. Considering it's an x86 core, it's pretty damn good. I think the E core team can also do a better job.

Meteor Late said:
LPDDR vs DDR is one of the main differences? what else?

Power management. It has many more steps, and it's more aggressive, and slower to get out of. This is the biggest reason. Everything is like that, from the CPU cores, to the memory, to IO such as SSD, keyboard, webcam, etc.

511 · Nov 5, 2024

oak8292 said:
Actually, Huawei was the lead customer on N5 but that was just before they lost access to production at TSMC. Huawei had become a member of the 10%+ revenue club with Apple at TSMC. TSMC briefly cancelled some EUV orders when Huawei was put on the blacklist. This was back in pandemic days and TSMC quickly reordered the EUV when demand went through the roof.

“Kirin 9000 chipset which is manufactured on a new 5nm manufacturing node,”

Huawei Announces Mate 40 Series: Powered by 15.3bn Transistors 5nm Kirin 9000

www.anandtech.com

If Nvidia has placed a large enough order they maybe able to ‘co-produce’ with Apple. However, it seems unlikely based on the size of their die but they may be a really fast follow on Apple. Nvidia has now joined Apple in the 10%+ revenue club.

Analyst estimates Nvidia is now TSMC's second largest customer accounting for 11% of revenue in 2023

Nvidia paid TSMC $7.73 billion in 2023 for its services

www.tomshardware.com

Intel is also part of 10% club for now 🙂.I forgot Huawei but that is not coming back

Doug S said:
Apple has to have something to put the chips in. If N2 comes too late for A19/M5, what would they do with that first wafer?

Now, I'm still of the opinion that given the N2 timeline, in particular having reached the 80% threshold for risk production in late May, that N2 may reach mass production before H2. Or even if it doesn't "officially" start mass production until H2, that they might be producing enough wafers for Apple to do A19P and M5 on it. Apple would have to accept some risk of slightly less than mass production quality yields if they take early wafers, but I think they'd be fine with that since they'd only be looking at a few percent points of difference.

Not saying that will happen, just that's the way I'd bet knowing what we know now.

But like I said, if Apple does not use N2 for A19/M5, and it is delivered in H2 (almost certainly Q3 based on the above) then Apple isn't going to have much for it. I suppose they could delay M5 a bit to wait for it, but Apple Silicon volume is much smaller than iPhone volume so other customers would be able to get wafers a lot sooner than if they are also competing with A19P.

M5 is N3P from the rumours there is no way for N2 products before H2 2026 and AMD doesn't lead exactly like Apple so Zen6C is not happening before Q426

511 · Nov 5, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
Word is it's(Rouge river Forest) canned to redirect resource to AI or for plain cost cutting... So 192C? Diamond Rapids and it's successor, Coral Rapids was it, may be all they have against AMD until 2028-30, when the E core is planned to make a debut. Pats remarks about reducing server CPU roadmap complexity seemingly reflect that too

Rouge river is not canned considering its the P core team that is axed and the complexity were the different platforms they had Xeon 6 6700/6900 series which will be unified into single platform

Doug S · Nov 5, 2024

511 said:
Intel is also part of 10% club for now 🙂.I forgot Huawei but that is not coming back

M5 is N3P from the rumours there is no way for N2 products before H2 2026 and AMD doesn't lead exactly like Apple so Zen6C is not happening before Q426

N2 enters mass production in H2 2025. And unlike N3B/N3E which entered risk production in December making their "H2" start of mass production the following December, N2 entered risk production the first week of July - and qualified for it yield wise in late May.

So while it is certainly possible M5 is N3P, the idea that there will be no N2 products before H2 2026 is completely false, unless TSMC totally drops the ball on N2 which has by all indications been going well if not exceeding their timetable.

511 · Nov 5, 2024

Doug S said:
N2 enters mass production in H2 2025. And unlike N3B/N3E which entered risk production in December making their "H2" start of mass production the following December, N2 entered risk production the first week of July - and qualified for it yield wise in late May.

So while it is certainly possible M5 is N3P, the idea that there will be no N2 products before H2 2026 is completely false, unless TSMC totally drops the ball on N2 which has by all indications been going well if not exceeding their timetable.

I am talking about products in hands of consumer like us or the server guys do you think there is a chance that we will have new N2 product in our hand by May/June considering the fact that it is a New node family not iteration like N3E and N3P

511 · Nov 6, 2024

TSMC N2 mass production is 2026

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853608843235725622

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853612313863205138

Also found this graph

DrMrLordX · Nov 6, 2024

OneEng2 said:
CWF isn't going to be released until late 2025.

That seems a bit late to market if they expect to compete with Turin dense.

Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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