Why did Trump win and what will be the response of the Democratic party?

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NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,743
1,250
136
People really need to stop repeating this. Once all the votes are counted you will see democratic turnout was broadly similar to 2020.
The popular vote doesn't matter that much. I am basically only looking at the battleground states. They had a growth of likely Harris voters, but they did not show up in the vote totals for those states. Wisconsin (99%), Michigan (99%), Pennsylvania(98%). Basically, lost those states because Harris was going to win and/or Trump was never going to win. The only thing different from 2016 was the mainstream media was in clutch your pearls and vote. While social media was we are going to win no matter what. The trim was again the voters who decided not to vote but it was caused by the smaller source being social media.

Similarities isn't the target. We are looking at growth of the turnout.
 
Last edited:
Dec 10, 2005
25,509
8,928
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The popular vote doesn't matter that much. I am basically only looking at the battleground states. They had a growth of likely Harris voters, but they did not show up in the vote totals for those states. Wisconsin (99%), Michigan (99%), Pennsylvania(98%). Basically, lost those states because Harris was going to win and/or Trump was never going to win.
The overall popular vote absolutely matters in the sense that legitimacy is derived from the people. Yes, in a technical sense for who wins the presidency, it doesn't matter thanks to the electoral college. But, the electoral college is an anachronism that should have been left in the trash heap of history.
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,392
11,411
136
I haven't noted that lurch into authoritarianism. I have seen a rejection to exposing children to cross dressers, and a very serious concern over administering puberty blockers or performing unnecessary surgery on minors. I have no issue with either of those. I've also noted increasing frustration with immigration, and I understand that point of view.
Look up Bugs fucking Bunny.

Are you a medical professional? Why don't you leave medical choices to patients and their doctors?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
86,098
51,666
136
I haven't noted that lurch into authoritarianism. I have seen a rejection to exposing children to cross dressers, and a very serious concern over administering puberty blockers or performing unnecessary surgery on minors.
So basically not a fan of parents making choices for their kids if you disagree with them.
I have no issue with either of those. I've also noted increasing frustration with immigration, and I understand that point of view.
Do you have any issue with felonies, rapes, or coups? I think they are bad, you appear to disagree.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
Democrats have also done themselves zero favors with mediocre governing in some states and cities. They have chances to deliver in those places and fail, and people carry those failures, rightfully or wrongfully onto national contests.
As above so below. Republicans paralytic poison affects the whole nation at all levels. We are a nation full of sick people and they poison everything.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,680
14,208
146
I haven't noted that lurch into authoritarianism. I have seen a rejection to exposing children to cross dressers, and a very serious concern over administering puberty blockers or performing unnecessary surgery on minors. I have no issue with either of those. I've also noted increasing frustration with immigration, and I understand that point of view.
Funny, all I've seen is talk about rounding up migrants, dissolving portions of government, and purging officials to replace them with yes-men. Govt taking control over women's bodies, children's bodies, basically every body that isn't a white male.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
So like any disaster it was several things gone wrong at once. Gaza, prices, misogyny, racism, Christian nationalism, and Fox “News”.
Yes yes yes, but why for some and not others? I believe there is a psychological reason that create the conditions which create a nation in which imbecility reigns. People are driven by a need for self destruction they don’t know they have. It’s why republicans want to destroy everything and liberals don’t know how to address it.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,568
31,324
136
Nothing helps Democrats regain control more than the GOP gaining full control of the WH and Congress. Nothing. The concern isn't figuring out how to win in 2026 or 2028, the concern is democracy surviving until 2026 or 2028.
 

RalphTheCow

Senior member
Sep 14, 2000
676
159
116
Fondly remembering people discussing the collapse in D voting in 2012 before California counted its votes.
Great point. They are showing only 54% reported, so that is a ton of votes. Another 5m it looks like, so that is a lot of the missing votes. And there are a lot of other states at pretty low percent counted, like WA and OR at only 80%. So it looks to me that the guardian reporting was a tad sloppy just saying she is expected to fall short. How much short?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,018
39,130
136
Great point. They are showing only 54% reported, so that is a ton of votes. Another 5m it looks like, so that is a lot of the missing votes. And there are a lot of other states at pretty low percent counted, like WA and OR at only 80%.

Total turnout from the people who know looks like on par with 2020, maybe slightly less. People saying there are 10M missing votes or whatever should take a seat.
 

RalphTheCow

Senior member
Sep 14, 2000
676
159
116
Total turnout from the people who know looks like on par with 2020, maybe slightly less. People saying there are 10M missing votes or whatever should take a seat.
AP and/or google should always have the percent reported next to a number they give. It is pretty misleading if you are not in the know. I think the casual reader assumes that since the race is called, all the votes are counted. Not so!

So for example Ruben Gallego is not really close to being out of the woods with 50.1% at 69% reported. Sounds like another Kari Lake debacle coming up for sure if it is that close.
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
Economic anxiety hurts the incumbent party more. It'll be the same in 2026 and 2028. Incumbents will fair worse as long as economic anxiety remains.

Now you can argue if having economic anxiety is justified right now. But many people don't care about government economic figures and instead go by their own life experiences. And I don't think that's a left/right divide.
What is economic anxiety but fear. What does capitalism run on but self interest, an interest to avoid poverty. How does one avoid poverty in a capitalist system? Isn’t it being competitively prepared to have a job? Without a job most of us are fucked. Are we a nation full of successful people working at self satisfying jobs or are we clawing to survive? Would there be billionaires if people didn’t need to work.

Doesn’t fear lock this system in place. Fear creates lust and hate. The fearful crave an authoritarian state and keep people in a fearful state. Conform or we will come for you. Difference is danger. Hunt down the different to be safe. Never share the wealth. Greed is good.
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
It is just sinking in more and more what a stunning drop in voters for Kamala from Biden there was. To me, the threat of republican rule was every bit as bad as Covid. To have 15 million votes missing is jaw dropping.
It’s just another way to get even for reasons because we don’t want to be conscious of them.
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
I want to remind people that sharing ideas in this thread is about understanding the republican frame of mind. It is important to understand what guides people's decisions even if you don't agree with the wisdom of their decisions. Arguing that republicans are racist or misogynistic does you no favor, as these people don't view themselves as racist or misogynistic, and their vote counts as much as yours does.
These are the reasons that I have heard for people voting for Trump as opposed to Kamala:
Trump would do a better job keeping illegal immigrants out. Kamala supported policies that let illegal immigrants into the country. Republicans believe that illegal immigrants are an existential threat to America, creating a group who abuses social safety net programs, doesn't pay taxes, commit crimes, abuse drugs, commit crimes, create gangs, and are a bad influence for our communities as they do not follow Christian values.
The economy was better under Trump. Kamala's policies would balloon the deficit, cause inflation, increase housing prices, often benefit illegal immigrants, and are generally opposed as republicans don't believe that newer generations should receive large handouts like first time buyer grants as they didn't benefit from them.
Trump wants to keep the US out of wars and wants to force allies to pay their fair share in multinational organizations. Trump wouldn't be afraid to act aggressively and intimidate enemies. They want the US to be the world's only superpower and boogeyman.
Trump accomplished what many republicans wanted, which was to repeal Roe v Wade.
Republicans view both democrats and republicans as equally corrupt and think the government was unjustly used to abuse Trump after he left office.
Many republicans were extremely angry after what Biden said.
Many republicans do not think it is reasonable or necessary to create gender affirming structures in public. They believe that even if there may be some people who want to transition it is an extreme minority and creating a supportive environment would only create incentives for a lifestyle they don't want to support.
Many young people were influenced by social media for Trump because of the clout of the streamers and podcasters, or against the Democrat position because of the Democrat's refusal to move away from supporting Israel.
Regardless of what you believe, if you want the Democrat party to succeed it will have to align with positions that are viewed as creating a better economy and stopping illegal immigration, and move away from social inclusiveness as the primary focus, unless you can convince Republicans to change their priorities. It is clear that most Republicans know that Trump is a liar, a cheat, and does not put the country before himself, yet they voted for him anyways.
Yes, because voting for a pile of shit is a lot better than becoming conscious of the fact you are insane. He’s saying being scum is good and people who either say we are or even just mistakenly feel that way are really saying we are evil. Voting for scum that says he loves us for that is way better than feeling that. Ignorance is bliss. God loves us in our altered reality.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
Conservatives may not realize they are racist or misogynistic, but they do make racist and mysoginistic choices, and I'm rather tired of that being glossed over by them. I don't particular care if they don't see it, they are making those choices.

They also won't realize how their choices shape the nation in the next four years, that's also not my problem, I'm still going to place the blame at their feet. You're not going to get me to meet them half way when they keep death marching their way to the right.
But that they don’t see it and why nobody seems to know why they don’t see it seems to me to be the problem. We don’t want to know why we don’t see.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
Do you have a polling citation on this or is it just feels? Because Democrats had record registrations and the energy was clearly there.
It’s all about toxic=> something or other tube or something. Let me know if you figure it out. He hurt my feeling by calling me distguished.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,507
11,145
136
It's the economy stupid!

No, not the GDP or the overall unemployment rate, but the goddamn price of eggs. Essentially ignorant, low information voters do know one thing, their grocery bill.

Plus, the transgender ads the repubs ran were visceral killers. News flash, many Latinos and blacks are culturally conservative.

Finally, black men are just as knee-jerk stupid and easily emotionally manipulated as white yahoos. T-Rump strong, T-Rump cool.
I will guarantee you that nothing except maybe gas will be as cheap as they were when Trump was in office. Never has happened in my lifetime after an inflationary period.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
Keep it simple stupid. The only reason democrats ever lose is because they DO NOT turnout. As since September 2024: Trump on track to lose. "Trump still hasn’t figured out how to run against Kamala Harris, and that’s helping Harris to secure states where Biden was in trouble." Hyper-partisan parties lead to confirmation bias on media sources. Social media for Harris was already calling the victory for Harris. The Harris' trim only needs a small loss to lose against a grower like Trump.

Republicans for Harris, Independents for Harris, etc. Gave them the okay, we can relax and not vote. There is no way Trump is going to win. Basically, by the time it started showing this reality they were already two months in a dream.
I’m admittedly stupid but did wonder if turnout is the answer then why didn’t people turn out? I mean it does sound like a great way to fuck yourself and remain ignorant of that fact.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,214
14,196
136
Keep it simple stupid. The only reason democrats ever lose is because they DO NOT turnout. As since September 2024: Trump on track to lose. "Trump still hasn’t figured out how to run against Kamala Harris, and that’s helping Harris to secure states where Biden was in trouble." Hyper-partisan parties lead to confirmation bias on media sources. Social media for Harris was already calling the victory for Harris. The Harris' trim only needs a small loss to lose against a grower like Trump.

Republicans for Harris, Independents for Harris, etc. Gave them the okay, we can relax and not vote. There is no way Trump is going to win. Basically, by the time it started showing this reality they were already two months in a dream.

Nah, this doesn't make sense. Democrats get their news from mainstream media. All mainstream media said, repeatedly, was that this election was too close to call, was on a literal razor edge. And yet another reason it doesn't make sense is that rightwing social media was calling it for Trump, yet his voters showed up.
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,594
6,442
126
That's a pretty grim outlook that I'm very happy I don't share.
That’s my whole point. You have not died to hope and are still hanging on. I suffered and lost to hopeless despair and found that what I sought for so deeply had only been hidden from me. What you fear is grim, led me to the the ending of suffering. I defeated the Nothing as one way to say what no words can explain. I was given a glimpse of the beloved. She lifted her veil and there I was, amazed and struck dumb.

I got a sip of a wine others drink by the cup. I am grateful for that but I forget to remember regularly. Don’t worry be happy.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,143
7,653
136
Besides a plethora of other reasons big and small, what stood out to me was how logic and common sense was completely and utterly defeated by the emotional impact Trump's supporters relied on to guide who they were going to vote for.

They had completely disregarded the fact the Trump is a convicted felon, that he is a proven sex offender and every other bad thing Trump has proven to be and brushed all of that aside to vote for him. Now, in another world where qualifications really mattered, any one of Trump's acts of malfeasance would have been a convincing disqualifier, yet Trump won anyway.

So I asked myself what is it that so many millions of people would think it's perfectly fine to vote for a convicted felon when what they were offered by the Democrats would directly and positively benefit the vast majority of the nation, that being the working class folks of America, of whom the majority of the citizenry forsake every good thing the Democrats were offering them. What mattered more to them than lowering their taxes, a better chance of lifting their lives and livelihoods and every other thing that the Democrat Party as gifted them with over the decades of which the Republican party has been fervently trying to take away?

What is it that they think Trump offers them besides more lies and empty promises like he did in his first term that they would give up a chance for a better life for themselves and their children?

Well, apparently it's what Trump says he will do to the nation's immigrants, to the nation's women, to the LGBTQ community, to every single person that voted against him, to every person that teased him, convicted him and attacked that hoax macho man image he built around himself, to the very people who put him in office if they get in his way if need be. He's not only getting revenge for himself, in the minds of his supporters, it's much more important that Trump is getting revenge for them too

And as I've said before, Trump will enjoy the luxury of having his supporters ignore and even praise his acts of treason and malfeasance that he will surely commit along with the ability to dismantle The Constitution as he sees fit.

Looks like I'll have to shut myself off from what Trump will do to us in order to keep my sanity intact. Just have to wait another four years to see if my right to vote is still around.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,568
31,324
136
Nah, this doesn't make sense. Democrats get their news from mainstream media. All mainstream media said, repeatedly, was that this election was too close to call, was on a literal razor edge. And yet another reason it doesn't make sense is that rightwing social media was calling it for Trump, yet his voters showed up.
Yeah, turns out the aggregate polling likely wasn't biased at all, or perhaps slightly biased in favor of Kamala all along. The only thing surprising about that is that Democrats HAD been outperforming polls in most elections between 2020 and 2024.
 
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