Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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yottabit

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2008
1,527
592
146
It's natural to expect that if you have insane inflation for a time it's natural expect some price correction in the other way. "Deflation usually occurs in a sickly economy." doesn't mean ALWAYS just usually.


Yeah, obviously "price goes up is natural" and "price goes down is bad" is a concept that makes sense to many people. All of the explanations are "macro" economics. It's bad "for the economy" it's "bad for investors" - it's not always bad for the person who now needs to spend more money. If you had a huge spike in inflation, telling people that "inflation is solved" is meaningless for them, because you haven't solved anything - you just stopped things from getting worse faster.


I was talking more inline with taxes, rates (which comes from the fed, before you try to correct me for some reason) etc.

Many, I believe.

In general I agree that the economy isn't as bad as it's painted out to be, but I also think with regards to consumer spending that people are just used to having tons of debt these days. I also think that as housing has gone out of reach for many, money is just getting spent elsewhere (e.g. cars, traveling etc.) because they don't feel they have anything to invest/save for.


No doubt about that.
The problem is inflation incentivizes consumer spending. It’s better to take out a loan or make a big purchase now before prices go up. Leaving money in your savings will cause it to be eroded. In low amounts it’s very healthy. In the extreme this loop can lead to runaway inflation and that’s why consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are important to keep it in check.

Deflation incentivizes everyone to sit on their assets. There’s no reason to make a huge purchase today when you expect it will be cheaper tomorrow. You can earn real returns by just letting your cash sit. There’s basically no amount of it that’s healthy. In the extreme, consumer spending will drop off a cliff and crash the economy to the next great depression. I’m not sure there are any tools federal reserve or other banks have to combat deflation. Hopefully you can see why deflation is much more dangerous than inflation for an economy and almost never occurs in healthy economies.

Aside from all of the above, how exactly would you compel companies to lower their prices? After the market has already proven the pricing that it can bear? It doesn’t sound very free market.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,680
14,208
146
Aside from all of the above, how exactly would you compel companies to lower their prices? After the market has already proven the pricing that it can bear? It doesn’t sound very free market.
You can't, you either give the people free money so they can afford necessities, or they stop buying it and the sector collapses (unless propped up by subsidies of course).

Wages aren't keeping up outside of specific sectors, so something has to give. Me? My spending has basically fallen off a cliff.
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,459
1,035
136
Deflation incentivizes everyone to sit on their assets. There’s no reason to make a huge purchase today when you expect it will be cheaper tomorrow. You can earn real returns by just letting your cash sit. There’s basically no amount of it that’s healthy. In the extreme, consumer spending will drop off a cliff and crash the economy to the next great depression. I’m not sure there are any tools federal reserve or other banks have to combat deflation. Hopefully you can see why deflation is much more dangerous than inflation for an economy and almost never occurs in healthy economies.
This is a very much economist way of thinking. People buy stuff not only because of inflation and erosion, but because they WANT it. In addition this logic doesn't work for stuff like groceries, perishable goods and necessities. Will you skip lunch because tomorrow's lunch will be cheaper? Will you buy skip buying fruit because it might be cheaper in a month? Inflation on fruit has been so high where I live that it's become a meme.

I've stated before, all the reasoning for anti even minor deflation are macro concerns. Maybe the average person is more well off but "the economy" won't bare it.

It's pretty simple - if a person has stopped buying something because it's completely out of reach for them now when they could get it earlier (either specifically the item is costs too much or because prices have risen across the board and they don't have the budget left), they can either look for a new job, negotiate a raise or hope for a price decrease. Those are their options! Lower inflation definitely won't help them.

Aside from all of the above, how exactly would you compel companies to lower their prices? After the market has already proven the pricing that it can bear? It doesn’t sound very free market.
IMO rates are too low, but that is besides the point. It's not that I have solutions., nor does it matter if I have a solution - if people feel that they are worse off with Biden they'll vote for someone who says he has the solutions even if it's just a "concept of a plan".
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,131
136
This is a very much economist way of thinking. People buy stuff not only because of inflation and erosion, but because they WANT it. In addition this logic doesn't work for stuff like groceries, perishable goods and necessities. Will you skip lunch because tomorrow's lunch will be cheaper? Will you buy skip buying fruit because it might be cheaper in a month? Inflation on fruit has been so high where I live that it's become a meme.

I've stated before, all the reasoning for anti even minor deflation are macro concerns. Maybe the average person is more well off but "the economy" won't bare it.

It's pretty simple - if a person has stopped buying something because it's completely out of reach for them now when they could get it earlier (either specifically the item is costs too much or because prices have risen across the board and they don't have the budget left), they can either look for a new job, negotiate a raise or hope for a price decrease. Those are their options! Lower inflation definitely won't help them.


IMO rates are too low, but that is besides the point. It's not that I have solutions., nor does it matter if I have a solution - if people feel that they are worse off with Biden they'll vote for someone who says he has the solutions even if it's just a "concept of a plan".

The last two times the US had systemic deflation was during massive economic crises with high unemployment. People stopped buying stuff because they were broke and "want" was irrelevant. The only way to cause deflation that doesn't harm people is through productivity gains but that's on a much longer timescale as some goods become relatively cheaper than they were in the past.
 

yottabit

Golden Member
Jun 5, 2008
1,527
592
146
This is a very much economist way of thinking. People buy stuff not only because of inflation and erosion, but because they WANT it. In addition this logic doesn't work for stuff like groceries, perishable goods and necessities. Will you skip lunch because tomorrow's lunch will be cheaper? Will you buy skip buying fruit because it might be cheaper in a month? Inflation on fruit has been so high where I live that it's become a meme.

I've stated before, all the reasoning for anti even minor deflation are macro concerns. Maybe the average person is more well off but "the economy" won't bare it.

It's pretty simple - if a person has stopped buying something because it's completely out of reach for them now when they could get it earlier (either specifically the item is costs too much or because prices have risen across the board and they don't have the budget left), they can either look for a new job, negotiate a raise or hope for a price decrease. Those are their options! Lower inflation definitely won't help them.


IMO rates are too low, but that is besides the point. It's not that I have solutions., nor does it matter if I have a solution - if people feel that they are worse off with Biden they'll vote for someone who says he has the solutions even if it's just a "concept of a plan".
It’s economist way of thinking because this is economics

It’s great if Uncle Joe still wants to buy his Polaris ATV despite ongoing deflation

But what do you think the likes of Musk, Bezos, Thiel etc will be doing with their trillions in capital when they can just sit on it to get a free guaranteed return?

The money flowing into the market will absolutely dry up starting from high up. Billionaires will wait until the last second to scoop assets at firesale prices

Banks would have little reason to lend

You have to consider the broader market implications beyond “feelsgoodman” for the individual consumer in the short term
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,185
3,108
136
I sometimes get in trouble with call outs, but it's pretty obvious to me linkgoron doesn't know WTF he's talking about. Yeah, okay so economics is called the dismal science for a reason. I'm not qualified to disagree with professionals, but at the same time, I don't go to average Joes for their economic insights.

Obviously short-term prices can go in either direction. Eggs that were $6/dozen two years ago dropped back down after the underlying causes were resolved. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about general price deflation over time. That happens if the money supply sharply contracts or demand has cratered.

I do agree that tamed inflation didn't help the "incumbent," Kamala Harris. Obviously consumers are still dour about prices, even though the available evidence shows that wages did barely keep up with inflation. So politically telling people the latest CPI is 2.1% annualized doesn't help. We agree on that. Debt plays some factor in consumer spending but there isn't a ton of evidence that everybody is spending vastly beyond their means, which is usually succeeded by a recession once the music stops.

We can acknowledge people's angst over pocketbook issues, but that doesn't mean that they are "right" about the basic facts. Sure, people say they want "deflation" but if they really knew why that often occurs (mass unemployment), I suspect they'd change their minds. Look, recent inflation had painful electoral consequences this time.* I haven't studied the exit polls, but I'm convinced that was the case. Kamala Harris just could not run away from Bidenomics (or chose not to), and thus she got murdered by the Latino vote. That doesn't mean that people aren't full of shit about the economy.

In other words, besides elevated prices, the current economy looks quite similar to 2019. But good luck to all those Trump voters who think they're getting their $7.50 Big Mac combos back in February. As someone else mentioned, right after DJT gets inaugurated, Republican voters will crow about how good the economy is.

* When you get murdered on Election day, you do have to look inward and ask why it all went to hell. Or you don't have to, because your elected political career is over.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
49,019
39,131
136
I sometimes get in trouble with call outs, but it's pretty obvious to me linkgoron doesn't know WTF he's talking about. Yeah, okay so economics is called the dismal science for a reason. I'm not qualified to disagree with professionals, but at the same time, I don't go to average Joes for their economic insights.

Obviously short-term prices can go in either direction. Eggs that were $6/dozen two years ago dropped back down after the underlying causes were resolved. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about general price deflation over time. That happens if the money supply sharply contracts or demand has cratered.

I do agree that tamed inflation didn't help the "incumbent," Kamala Harris. Obviously consumers are still dour about prices, even though the available evidence shows that wages did barely keep up with inflation. So politically telling people the latest CPI is 2.1% annualized doesn't help. We agree on that. Debt plays some factor in consumer spending but there isn't a ton of evidence that everybody is spending vastly beyond their means, which is usually succeeded by a recession once the music stops.

We can acknowledge people's angst over pocketbook issues, but that doesn't mean that they are "right" about the basic facts. Sure, people say they want "deflation" but if they really knew why that often occurs (mass unemployment), I suspect they'd change their minds. Look, recent inflation had painful electoral consequences this time.* I haven't studied the exit polls, but I'm convinced that was the case. Kamala Harris just could not run away from Bidenomics (or chose not to), and thus she got murdered by the Latino vote. That doesn't mean that people aren't full of shit about the economy.

In other words, besides elevated prices, the current economy looks quite similar to 2019. But good luck to all those Trump voters who think they're getting their $7.50 Big Mac combos back in February. As someone else mentioned, right after DJT gets inaugurated, Republican voters will crow about how good the economy is.

* When you get murdered on Election day, you do have to look inward and ask why it all went to hell. Or you don't have to, because your elected political career is over.

Yeah if deflation shows up in the context of Trump it's because his policies have caused a worse recession than 2008. Which the millennials in here remember was not exactly a splendid time. Zs simply have no idea what could happen lol.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,921
9,006
136
I've already posted this and people refuse to listen. When people say they want "inflation to go down" they actually mean that they want prices to go down not for prices to go up slowly again.

That's why saying "inflation has already come down" (which is true) doesn't actually resonate with these people.
Deficient math skills. Dummy at the cash register syndrome.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,921
9,006
136
The scotus determines what is an official acts, as per their decision. So R=immune, D=not immune

I agree Biden should test it though
Does Biden have anything resembling evidence? Trump didn't have any, however.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,507
11,145
136

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,459
1,035
136
I sometimes get in trouble with call outs, but it's pretty obvious to me linkgoron doesn't know WTF he's talking about. Yeah, okay so economics is called the dismal science for a reason. I'm not qualified to disagree with professionals, but at the same time, I don't go to average Joes for their economic insights.
Its decent courtesy to at least mention/tag me. I'm trying to explain a point - telling someone that "you've solved inflation" while prices are still high doesn't sound like you've actually solved anything. Telling someone how inflation is actually good for them isn't exactly comforting.

I'm no economist, but it's known fact the ~2% rate target which has become gospel is a relatively new number (officially set in the US since 2012) which was essentially just invented almost arbitrarily in New Zealand without any real science behind it.

We can acknowledge people's angst over pocketbook issues, but that doesn't mean that they are "right" about the basic facts. Sure, people say they want "deflation" but if they really knew why that often occurs (mass unemployment), I suspect they'd change their minds. Look, recent inflation had painful electoral consequences this time.* I haven't studied the exit polls, but I'm convinced that was the case. Kamala Harris just could not run away from Bidenomics (or chose not to), and thus she got murdered by the Latino vote. That doesn't mean that people aren't full of shit about the economy.
Trump made people feel heard. Harris was put in a very difficult place The VP is a part of the administration but in reality doesn't really do much. She was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position.

In other words, besides elevated prices, the current economy looks quite similar to 2019. But good luck to all those Trump voters who think they're getting their $7.50 Big Mac combos back in February.
Yes, and I assume that the fed will cut less than intended in the long run, as Trump's actual plans are inflationary.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,921
9,006
136
Trump will just omni domini him like several of his past unconfirmed appointees..
Oh, so Trumpie can't wave his hand and shoo his man through security protocols? I thought he was supposed to be USA_King now? Jr. is obviously about the last person in the world you want having any power over healthcare of any kind in the USA, so this is good news.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
86,098
51,666
136
Its decent courtesy to at least mention/tag me. I'm trying to explain a point - telling someone that "you've solved inflation" while prices are still high doesn't sound like you've actually solved anything. Telling someone how inflation is actually good for them isn't exactly comforting.

I'm no economist, but it's known fact the ~2% rate target which has become gospel is a relatively new number (officially set in the US since 2012) which was essentially just invented almost arbitrarily in New Zealand without any real science behind it.
I agree it's a politically difficult message, but it also happens to be true. This is a failure of the media to inform the public of it.

Prices going down is EXTREMELY bad. It can't be emphasized enough that returning prices to 2019 levels would result in a catastrophic depression.

Trump made people feel heard. Harris was put in a very difficult place The VP is a part of the administration but in reality doesn't really do much. She was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position.


Yes, and I assume that the fed will cut less than intended in the long run, as Trump's actual plans are inflationary.
People did not vote for Trump because he made them feel heard or even that they liked him. After all, he is viewed less favorably than Harris.

To me the explanation is a pretty simple one - the US was not immune from the anti-incumbency movement that swept the world post-COVID. A lot of this had to do with people being mad about inflation because they were misinformed about how the economy works.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,921
9,006
136
Do you honestly think it would matter? I mean, all the evidence is there that Trump should be dq’d from running again since he attempted a coup. What was the scotus response? GOP led house response?
Just saying the SCOTUS might ask. Presumably doesn't matter though.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,507
11,145
136
Its decent courtesy to at least mention/tag me. I'm trying to explain a point - telling someone that "you've solved inflation" while prices are still high doesn't sound like you've actually solved anything. Telling someone how inflation is actually good for them isn't exactly comforting.

I'm no economist, but it's known fact the ~2% rate target which has become gospel is a relatively new number (officially set in the US since 2012) which was essentially just invented almost arbitrarily in New Zealand without any real science behind it.


Trump made people feel heard. Harris was put in a very difficult place The VP is a part of the administration but in reality doesn't really do much. She was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't position.


Yes, and I assume that the fed will cut less than intended in the long run, as Trump's actual plans are inflationary.
Prices never go back to where they were after an inflationary period. Sorry.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,921
9,006
136
To me the explanation is a pretty simple one - the US was not immune from the anti-incumbency movement that swept the world post-COVID. A lot of this had to do with people being mad about inflation because they were misinformed about how the economy works.
I hardly give a rat's ass about inflation. I can always tighten the belt some. I don't care one iota about the price of gas. I drove less than 700 miles last year. I bicycle, I walk, my car is used for errands maybe once every 3 weeks. I resent car-dependent people. If gas goes to $8/gallon, I'm 100% fine with that. Edit: In fact, I'd secretly gloat.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,507
11,145
136
Oh, so Trumpie can't wave his hand and shoo his man through security protocols? I thought he was supposed to be USA_King now? Jr. is obviously about the last person in the world you want having any power over healthcare of any kind in the USA, so this is good news.
I think you misunderstood my omi domini. He will bless their clearances, and wave them in.
 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,394
11,412
136
I hardly give a rat's ass about inflation. I can always tighten the belt some. I don't care one iota about the price of gas. I drove less than 700 miles last year. I bicycle, I walk, my car is used for errands maybe once every 3 weeks. I resent car-dependent people. If gas goes to $8/gallon, I'm 100% fine with that. Edit: In fact, I'd secretly gloat.
That is definitely not how the typical American travels

Though I agree that cheap gas has terrible consequences for us as a society
 
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linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,459
1,035
136
Prices never go back to where they were after an inflationary period. Sorry.
Yes, of course the don't. Wages are supposed to support the new level, but in reality it's a process that takes time - and yet the message was "inflation was solved!!!" which is just the wrong message. It's a complicated issue with complicated explanations, and the democratic messaging was crap.

However, for some weird reason things like federal minimum wage are not tied to the CPI in the US and have been the same since 2009 (IIRC some states like California and others have a different higher wage).
 
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