Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

manly · Nov 7, 2024

linkgoron said:
Its decent courtesy to at least mention/tag me. I'm trying to explain a point - telling someone that "you've solved inflation" while prices are still high doesn't sound like you've actually solved anything. Telling someone how inflation is actually good for them isn't exactly comforting.

I'm no economist, but it's known fact the ~2% rate target which has become gospel is a relatively new number (officially set in the US since 2012) which was essentially just invented almost arbitrarily in New Zealand without any real science behind it.

We agree on a lot of points, so I apologize for the call out. Where we disagree is you keep saying that because inflation was hot for 2 years, that general deflation is a reasonable expectation for Joe Consumer to have. Yes it cost us the election, but that doesn't mean all the people who want their 2019 prices back are correct because they aren't. Agreed that Harris ultimately failed in the "messaging." It's a tough nut to crack.

Short term price corrections are perfectly normal within any basket of goods. The reason CPI is 2.1% is that many items have gotten cheaper over the past 15 months.

I'm not going to flog this horse any longer, we'll just agree to disagree.

linkgoron said:
Yes, and I assume that the fed will cut less than intended in the long run, as Trump's actual plans are inflationary.

If he deports 10M people, there will be massive social unrest and economic fallout. A global trade war will suck for everybody. But there are Trump's plans, and there's reality dictated by his oligarch masters; and we have no idea how they will intersect. Unfortunately, he's gonna hire a lot of shitty people in his administration and nobody will dare tell him no.

Pens1566 · Nov 7, 2024

linkgoron said:
Yes, of course the don't. Wages are supposed to support the new level, but in reality it's a process that takes time - and yet the message was "inflation was solved!!!" which is just the wrong message. It's a complicated issue with complicated explanations, and the democratic messaging was crap.

However, for some weird reason things like federal minimum wage are not tied to the CPI in the US and have been the same since 2009 (IIRC some states like California and others have a different higher wage).

It's the "correct" message. What's wrong about it is the pure unadulterated ignorance of the subject by a vast majority of the electorate.

Muse · Nov 7, 2024

hal2kilo said:
I think you misunderstood my omi domini. He will bless their clearances, and wave them in.

Ooops. I hope you're wrong on that.

K1052 · Nov 7, 2024

manly said:
If he deports 10M people, there will be massive social unrest and economic fallout. A global trade war will suck for everybody. But there are Trump's plans, and there's reality dictated by his oligarch masters; and we have no idea how they will intersect. Unfortunately, he's gonna hire a lot of shitty people in his administration and nobody will dare tell him no.

A lot of people talk about how this can't actually get done but don't seem to take into account that millions will decide to leave if people start getting put in camps. They will liquidate and GTFO. The economic damage will be the same though.

Muse · Nov 7, 2024

linkgoron said:
Yes, of course the don't. Wages are supposed to support the new level, but in reality it's a process that takes time - and yet the message was "inflation was solved!!!" which is just the wrong message. It's a complicated issue with complicated explanations, and the democratic messaging was crap.

However, for some weird reason things like federal minimum wage are not tied to the CPI in the US and have been the same since 2009 (IIRC some states like California and others have a different higher wage).

Cost of living is higher in CA, so a higher minimum wage makes sense here.

Indus · Nov 7, 2024

Would anyone be surprised?

Minimum wage goes down to $4 and the maximum wage for illegals is $2/ hour.

Brainonska511 · Nov 7, 2024

Fenixgoon said:
That is definitely not how the typical American travels

Though I agree that cheap gas has terrible consequences for us as a society

Yes, but the typical American *chooses* the inefficient, oversized vehicle, and *chooses* to support policies that encourage more driving

fskimospy · Nov 7, 2024

linkgoron said:
Yes, of course the don't. Wages are supposed to support the new level, but in reality it's a process that takes time - and yet the message was "inflation was solved!!!" which is just the wrong message. It's a complicated issue with complicated explanations, and the democratic messaging was crap.

However, for some weird reason things like federal minimum wage are not tied to the CPI in the US and have been the same since 2009 (IIRC some states like California and others have a different higher wage).

Real median wages are higher now than they were before the pandemic.

ch33zw1z · Nov 7, 2024

Muse said:
Oh, so Trumpie can't wave his hand and shoo his man through security protocols? I thought he was supposed to be USA_King now? Jr. is obviously about the last person in the world you want having any power over healthcare of any kind in the USA, so this is good news.

Yes, he had people in his admin last time that were rejected due to questionable backgrounds, yet were still issued a security clearance

Officials rejected Kushner for top secret clearance, were overruled

Jared Kushner was rejected for a top-secret clearance by two career security specialists, but their supervisor overruled them and approved him, sources say.

www.nbcnews.com

100% expect this admin to be “who fucking cares” about any of this

Muse · Nov 7, 2024

ch33zw1z said:
Yes, he had people in his admin last time that were rejected due to questionable backgrounds, yet were still issued a security clearance

Officials rejected Kushner for top secret clearance, were overruled

Jared Kushner was rejected for a top-secret clearance by two career security specialists, but their supervisor overruled them and approved him, sources say.

www.nbcnews.com

100% expect this admin to be “who fucking cares” about any of this

Does that not mean that those people are barred from accessing certain information about the workings of government? That would render them lame and unfit to do much more than empty the waste cans, the unsecured ones.

If unreliable people are in power I have to think there will be plenty of right hand doesn't know what the left is doing going on.

Indus · Nov 7, 2024

I just went and looked at the results.. looks like Jacky Rosen's gonna pull this one out.. so the dems lost 3 senate seats in red states (WV, MT, OH) and 1 in a swing state (PA).

I'm not seeing a massive rejection of dems across the board outside of red states and PA. It's just for whatever reason.. they like Trump!

And they like Trump a hell of a lot more than a black woman!

I don't think the Dems can lean into DEI so much going forward.. they need to actually talk 6th grade level solutions to people.

I actually don't think Republicans can talk 6th grade level solutions either.. but Trump could!

DZero · Nov 7, 2024

manly said:
If he deports 10M people, there will be massive social unrest and economic fallout. A global trade war will suck for everybody. But there are Trump's plans, and there's reality dictated by his oligarch masters; and we have no idea how they will intersect. Unfortunately, he's gonna hire a lot of shitty people in his administration and nobody will dare tell him no.

Now I imagine Trump bringing Russians and amish people back to the US in order to try to cover that 10M people loss.

To not to start to promote massively the automatization and the AI on the missing jobs. It would be clearly a double edged sword: maybe they won't need new workers, but the ones who still works, might feel that won't have much time and also there is the fact that they need a generational replacement: new people in exchange of the old ones.

slpaulson · Nov 7, 2024

Indus said:
I don't think the Dems can lean into DEI so much going forward.. they need to actually talk 6th grade level solutions to people.

That’s been one of my concerns, that what to me sounds like a great speech, to a lot of people sounds like a lecture. I know some people get the feeling they are being talked down to when a politician isn’t plain spoken at a lower grade level.

Amused · Nov 7, 2024

hal2kilo said:
I think you misunderstood my omi domini. He will bless their clearances, and wave them in.

In the case of RFK Jr Trump will most certainly dump him. RFK Jr's environmental and medical positions are 100% contrary to all of Trump's oligarch donor class obligations.

He simply used RFK Jr to appeal the the fringe left woo antivaxxers who raced to the right during covid.

K1052 · Nov 7, 2024

slpaulson said:
That’s been one of my concerns, that what to me sounds like a great speech, to a lot of people sounds like a lecture. I know some people get the feeling they are being talked down to when a politician isn’t plain spoken at a lower grade level.

I have my doubts about this since the most incredible political talent of my lifetime was literally a college professor.

linkgoron · Nov 7, 2024

manly said:
If he deports 10M people, there will be massive social unrest and economic fallout. A global trade war will suck for everybody. But there are Trump's plans, and there's reality dictated by his oligarch masters; and we have no idea how they will intersect. Unfortunately, he's gonna hire a lot of shitty people in his administration and nobody will dare tell him no.

I don't think Trump has the ability to deport 10 million people, but we'll see. I have a feeling that this administration might be more "competent" than the previous one.

I think I've talked enough about inflation. I have a different question - can ELI5 the green party? Are they actually a GOP plant? Are they idiots? I'd assume that most people that vote for them would've voted Democrat, and definitely wouldn't want to support GOP - yet time and time again they have more than the required votes for a Dem candidate to pass the GOP candidate. Would these people just not vote if the green party didn't run?

Indus said:
I don't think the Dems can lean into DEI so much going forward.. they need to actually talk 6th grade level solutions to people.

I wouldn't try to nominate another Women for president if I were the Democratic party. I think that Harris would have been a fine president, and she's definitely competent enough, but it was clear with Hillary and It's clear now that women have a much harder battle to climb.

LGBTQ and other issues are also not popular with more "conservative" demographics that used to vote D (e.g. latino).

Muse · Nov 7, 2024

Trump needed a message, he chose illegal immigration. Him actually deporting millions would have disastrous consequences. Inflation would skyrocket, he'd become instantly very unpopular. What would propel him to follow through with his _promise_?

K1052 · Nov 7, 2024

Muse said:
Trump needed a message, he chose illegal immigration. Him actually deporting millions would have disastrous consequences. Inflation would skyrocket, he'd become instantly very unpopular. What would propel him to follow through with his _promise_?

The two things I think Trump actually believes in are racism and that tariffs are good. So yea, I kinda expect follow through in these areas no matter what people are telling themselves.

manly · Nov 7, 2024

Muse said:
Trump needed a message, he chose illegal immigration. Him actually deporting millions would have disastrous consequences. Inflation would skyrocket, he'd become instantly very unpopular. What would propel him to follow through with his _promise_?

LMAO that you think Trump was merely employing rhetoric in a campaign or that he isn't interested in exercising the broad executive powers that SCROTUS has granted him.

Not to say it's a done deal, perhaps somebody like an Ivanka Trump (I know, she quit long ago) would moderate his impulses and federal courts will have a say. It depends on who he listens to for economic advice. If it's fuckers like Larry Kudlow, then all bets are off on rational policy.

JD50 · Nov 7, 2024

Muse said:
Trump needed a message, he chose illegal immigration. Him actually deporting millions would have disastrous consequences. Inflation would skyrocket, he'd become instantly very unpopular. What would propel him to follow through with his _promise_?

I hope he does it. Deport every single one. I want to see thousands of busses rolling around this country rounding people up. I hope Trump enacts every single policy he said he would. People voted for this, Fuck 'em.

Indus · Nov 7, 2024

K1052 said:
The two things I think Trump actually believes in are racism and that tariffs are good. So yea, I kinda expect follow through in these areas no matter what people are telling themselves.

And the immigration act of 1965 which made family immigration legal or chain migration as they call it.. (bring your mom, dad, brothers, uncles, aunts over) that's gotta be in the crosshairs!

JD50 · Nov 7, 2024

manly said:
LMAO that you think Trump was merely employing rhetoric in a campaign or that he isn't interested in exercising the broad executive powers that SCROTUS has granted him.

Not to say it's a done deal, perhaps somebody like an Ivanka Trump (I know, she quit long ago) would moderate his impulses and federal courts will have a say. It depends on who he listens to for economic advice. If it's fuckers like Larry Kudlow, then all bets are off on rational policy.

Democrats in the House and Senate need to let this man do what he said he will do. Obviously don't vote for any of this nonsense, but don't block it either. We tried holding him back, and this is what we get. 14 million Democrats stayed home because they have their own stupid little pet issues that Kamala wasn't perfect on, fuck them too.

K1052 · Nov 7, 2024

Indus said:
And the immigration act of 1965 which made family immigration legal or chain migration as they call it.. (bring your mom, dad, brothers, uncles, aunts over) that's gotta be in the crosshairs!

My baseline expectation is the intentional near collapse of all legal immigration during his term.

gothuevos · Nov 7, 2024

Indus said:
I don't think the Dems can lean into DEI so much going forward.. they need to actually talk 6th grade level solutions to people.

This is why Dems need to RIGHT NOW nip it in the bud with any notions of pushing Buttigieg or Jared Polis, as capable as they are. Black and Latino men will not vote for a gay candidate. Most men probably wouldn't.

Play the game with the rules as they are, not what you hope they could be.

gothuevos · Nov 7, 2024

JD50 said:
Democrats in the House and Senate need to let this man do what he said he will do. Obviously don't vote for any of this nonsense, but don't block it either. We tried holding him back, and this is what we get. 14 million Democrats stayed home because they have their own stupid little pet issues that Kamala wasn't perfect on, fuck them too.

If SCOTUS picks weren't enough of a driving force to get voters out in 2016, and everything at stake in 2024 wasn't enough...then what will be? If the Dem base is this fickle/apathetic when it matters most...then what's the point? They will continue to lose elections, and that's not even taking into consideration whatever shenanigans the GOP pulls in terms of making it harder to vote/Dem candidates to win. Maybe Steve Bannon is right - the GOP is looking at 100 years of rule. Dem voters can bicker amongst themselves about their own pet issues for the next century.

I think the Elon/Rogan podcast at the last minute was very underrated in terms of impact.

Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

Lifer

Lifer

Lifer

Elite Member

Lifer

Lifer

Lifer

Elite Member

Lifer

Lifer

Lifer

Senior member

Diamond Member

Elite Member

Elite Member

Platinum Member

Lifer

Elite Member

Lifer

Lifer

Lifer

Lifer

Elite Member

Platinum Member

Platinum Member