Any Good Forecasters Here?

lxskllr · Nov 10, 2024

My Motorola is three years old. I'm happy with it, and everything works great. However, Trump's proposed tariffs have me concerned. I'd be happy to use this phone for another five years(4 years of dumbass and a year to recover), but that's a lot to ask of a phone that's used daily, and it's waaay past getting updates. So, y'all think the tariffs will amount to anything, or should I grab a phone now while I can? $10± isn't a big deal, but a 60% increase is, especially if I can insure against it for $200(the approximate cost of a new Motorola).

Jimminy · Nov 10, 2024

I'm no forecaster, and I know very little about motorola phones, but I think it will take considerably more than one year to recover from the Orange Felon.

darkswordsman17 · Nov 11, 2024

I think there will be a lot of pain from this, but we'll see. In fact, it might even somewhat work in your favor as I could see companies develop more lower tier phones to try to keep people buying, which could increase competition/options. They could cost more, but I'd be surprised if that market goes up that much. They'll probably go with lower tier SoC and maybe reduce from having like 5 cameras to 3 or something. I could also see companies make "US" brands that are cobbled together or rebranded Chinese stuff with Qualcomm chips. Heck, I think that's what Moto tried doing when Google sold them to Lenovo, where they setup assembly facility to try and win favor. It didn't work out, but they tried. I could see that happening again, especially since there's that huge amount of subsidies.

I think the real pain might be that we're almost back to phones only being available via carrier deals unless you're willing to pay full MSRP. I'm more concerned that we'll see increased prices and other via the carriers. And since T-Mobile likely isn't gonna face any real repercussions for their shenanigans, I could see Verizon and AT&T feeling like they can squeeze people more, and then they can push the MVNOs to pay per GB setups.

spdfreak · Nov 11, 2024

Lots of competition out there now, both in carriers and manufacturers. Competition is always good for the market. It will adjust to whatever tariffs are enacted. I may see if there are any good deals on pixels during BF weekend since my pixel 6 is getting a bit old. But, I just got android 15 and the phone still works flawlessly for anything I need to do with it. Google has continued to refine and update the older phones so they don't feel old. I also switched to Visible (Verizon) when they had their 15/mo deal if you came from T-mo. Can't beat that deal. I think the carriers will be forced to offer better deals across the board since the cell phone market in the US is mature and there aren't that many new customers now.

balloonshark · Nov 11, 2024

spdfreak said:
Lots of competition out there now, both in carriers and manufacturers. Competition is always good for the market. It will adjust to whatever tariffs are enacted. I may see if there are any good deals on pixels during BF weekend since my pixel 6 is getting a bit old. But, I just got android 15 and the phone still works flawlessly for anything I need to do with it. Google has continued to refine and update the older phones so they don't feel old. I also switched to Visible (Verizon) when they had their 15/mo deal if you came from T-mo. Can't beat that deal. I think the carriers will be forced to offer better deals across the board since the cell phone market in the US is mature and there aren't that many new customers now.

Not sure if this is a good deal or not.

https://slickdeals.net/f/17880276-256gb-google-pixel-9-unlocked-various-colors-549-free-shipping?src=frontpage

darkswordsman17 · Nov 12, 2024

If T-Mobile works for you, Mint is offering a Pixel 9 for $579, and that price includes 12 months of Unlimited data (only 10GB of hotspot per month though). That's quite a lot more expensive, but since it includes the year of service, and Pixel 9 is supposed to get 7 years of updates, might make it more of a longer term solution for you. Pixel phones have one of the best cameras if that matters, and I believe it still has a SIM card tray as well as eSIM, so you should be able to unlock it and use it on another network later (a lot of companies are offering like a week or 2 free trial of their network and that usually needs eSIM these days). They're slowly adding a desktop mode as well, which might make Hotspotting less of an issue. Also has a reasonable compromise for multi-accounts in that it has a default personal and work bifurcation (its not as good as real multi user but is somewhat nice in that you can lock one down but be able to access both without logging out of either).

lxskllr · Nov 12, 2024

I'm pretty set on getting a motorola. I've had three of their phones now for various purposes, and they've all been great. Fairly vanilla android with some added features I actually use. The only thing that keeps them from being a slam dunk is their terrible update policy. Basically one android version, and two years total of security updates. I'd like to checkout fairphone, but their presence is very limited in the US, and may not even be supported by tmobile.

This topic was started regarding my work phone, which end of the day, isn't my problem, but I don't spend other people's money any differently than I spend my own. I don't want to get two years into this disaster, have my (already unsupported)phone die, then have to pay significantly more to replace it. We aren't talking life changing money here, but it's the principle of the thing.

I also made the thread as a warning to others. This might be something to consider. I don't know if it is, but it's certainly worth considering. If tech was intended on being replaced in the next year, now might be better than later.

edit:
added a crucial word

Ken g6 · Nov 14, 2024

I think tariffs might amount to something.

Laptop, smartphone, and game console prices could soar after the election

Most Americans may not realize popular tech hasn’t been hit by China tariffs—yet.

arstechnica.com

That's why I'm putting together a new computer this Black Friday.

Plus, who knows, Motorola (being a division of Lenovo) might get banned in the USA like Huawei.

manly · Nov 16, 2024

A shitty update policy is a non-starter. Would you run your desktop OS without security fixes for years on end? I wouldn't.
Buy a mid-range phone with 5 (or more) years of security updates.

Black Friday deals should launch on the 21st.

@Ken g6 You almost built a new ML rig a year ago?

Ken g6 · Nov 16, 2024

manly said:
@Ken g6 You almost built a new ML rig a year ago?

I only got half done, and I don't think I installed any parts I got except a 4070.

lxskllr · Nov 18, 2024

manly said:
A shitty update policy is a non-starter. Would you run your desktop OS without security fixes for years on end? I wouldn't.

I keep a low profile, and I'm not an interesting target. Updates are better than no updates, but I'm not particularly worried about it. Exploits tend to come through the web browser, and I keep the browsers on all my systems locked down tight.

As for what I'm gonna do... I think I've decided to take a wait and see approach. My phones work fine, and I don't like treating electronics as disposable. I also don't like getting new devices. They're fun for the first ten minutes, then it just becomes a chore setting things up the way I like, and disabling the garbage that comes with a new phone.

Also, the longer I wait, the cheaper the device as long as things don't go sideways. If things start to look like they're going sideways, I'll pickup a new phone or two.

manly · Nov 18, 2024

lxskllr said:
I keep a low profile, and I'm not an interesting target. Updates are better than no updates, but I'm not particularly worried about it. Exploits tend to come through the web browser, and I keep the browsers on all my systems locked down tight.

As for what I'm gonna do... I think I've decided to take a wait and see approach. My phones work fine, and I don't like treating electronics as disposable. I also don't like getting new devices. They're fun for the first ten minutes, then it just becomes a chore setting things up the way I like, and disabling the garbage that comes with a new phone.

Also, the longer I wait, the cheaper the device as long as things don't go sideways. If things start to look like they're going sideways, I'll pickup a new phone or two.

I don't mind squeezing an extra year out of a device after support. It's not ideal, but I'm totally with you with using electronics for as long as possible.

Although I also exercise good online hygiene, I just wouldn't want to run an unsupported OS for any longer than a year. Sure we aren't political dissidents in Iran or China, but zero days occasionally are exploited in the wild.

Having a 5 year update policy means I don't have to go through that "chore" of setting up a new device unless I really need to. Before, it took an iPhone or flagship Android phone to get good support. That has finally drifted down to the mid-range, so consumers do have more choices.

If I were you, I'd evaluate the BF deals and jump if an exceptional one comes along. Otherwise, riding it out for a little longer is reasonable as well.

spdfreak · Nov 19, 2024

lxskllr said:
I keep a low profile, and I'm not an interesting target. Updates are better than no updates, but I'm not particularly worried about it. Exploits tend to come through the web browser, and I keep the browsers on all my systems locked down tight.

As for what I'm gonna do... I think I've decided to take a wait and see approach. My phones work fine, and I don't like treating electronics as disposable. I also don't like getting new devices. They're fun for the first ten minutes, then it just becomes a chore setting things up the way I like, and disabling the garbage that comes with a new phone.

Also, the longer I wait, the cheaper the device as long as things don't go sideways. If things start to look like they're going sideways, I'll pickup a new phone or two.

Not sure why you wouldn't want to get a new pixel if you want to keep stuff a long time. 7 yrs of OS updates, pixel drops, bare android with no junk added in, top rated camera, amazing screen, etc... Motorola by only supporting their phones a couple years is basically saying "we want you to throw this phone away and get a new one" or maybe "we don't really build these things to last".

lxskllr · Nov 19, 2024

No microsd, no phone jack. I buy low end phones cause they do what I need. I need an adequate camera, and screen tech has been good enough for years. Fewer pixels and a lower refresh rate means a longer lived battery. I'm currently using a 2021 Stylus 5G. Works perfectly for my purposes, and I think it was $250 when purchased. If I were to buy a phone today my choices are a MotoG Power @ $165 or the 2024 Stylus 5G @ $260. I'd be leaning towards the Power cause I don't use the stylus as much as I thought I would, and while the specs are below the Stylus2024, they're better than what I'm currently using which is already fine.

The Pixel is $800-$1k. I work and play in rough environments. The insurance to cover a $1k phone probably costs more than a whole Motorola over the phone's lifespan.

manly · Nov 19, 2024

The Pixel 8a is $500. I'm guessing it'll be $400 for Black Friday. Other flagship Pixel deals have already been mentioned above, so you're not gonna be spending $800.

Alternately, the affordable Samsung A series offers 4 years of software updates. The A35 is on sale for $300, and there are some cheaper options. In the past, TouchWiz had a lousy rep but Samsung has gradually moved away from bespoke Android and apps. Nobody really complains about OneUI anymore.

Samsung Galaxy A Series Phones | Samsung US

Select and compare the latest features and innovations available in the new Samsung Galaxy A Series Phones. Find the perfect Samsung phones for you!

www.samsung.com

From a consumer viewpoint, the only way companies improve their shitty policies is if we vote with our wallets.

lxskllr · Nov 19, 2024

Samsung is definitely a huge "Nope!". While I might consider a Pixel, I've grown to hate Samsung phones. The hardware quality is great, but I don't like the software implementation. They have to be their own special snowflake with everything, and do things different just to be different. Trying to be Apple without the uniqueness or polish to back it up.

Any Good Forecasters Here?

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