Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Tigerick · Aug 22, 2022

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	12 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	8P + 16E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	36 MB ?	12 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

clemsyn · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
It's all in the compiler flags 🙂
I have found the gain from Intel 3-> 20A(10% ppw) and 20A -> 18A (10% ppw)
From official Intel sources when they were developing it

So the gain target was about 20% and they ended with 15%

Isn't she being replaced?

Thunder 57 · Nov 13, 2024

Is this why 20A was canceled? Or is it that 18A now is closer to what 20A was going to be?

cannedlake240 · Nov 13, 2024

Wait for next years iedm and similar conferences, or even better the PTL or CLF concrete numbers. MTL E vs LP-E tests showed Intel 4 ~ N6, at least at very low power. PTL to LNL offers a similar comparison since both have LP-E cores

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

Thunder 57 said:
Is this why 20A was canceled? Or is it that 18A now is closer to what 20A was going to be?

Intel's explanation is that 18a is doing so well that they don't need 20a, and so to save cost, they cancelled it.

The other side is that 18a is not arriving earlier than expected (best case is that it's on time), has reduced ppw to match the original 20a target, and has no significant external customers to speak of with reports of potential customers abandoning their plans to use it, with one citing lower than expected yields.

You can make your own call as to what is really going on.

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Intel's explanation is that 18a is doing so well that they don't need 20a, and so to save cost, they cancelled it.

The other side is that 18a is not arriving earlier than expected (best case is that it's on time), has reduced ppw to match the original 20a target, and has no significant external customers to speak of with reports of potential customers abandoning their plans to use it, with one citing lower than expected yields.

You can make your own call as to what is really going on.

Well they added two customers and some analysts know their names also they got pre payment for 18A as well(1 billion $)

When do we count as on18A schedule Initial batch of products will be from Oregon like MTL was the real HVM production will be in Arizona in 2H25 mass availability by Q1 26 sort of LNL style few EPP Panther Lake products inQ325 and mass availability in Q1 26

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
Well they added two customers and insider know theur names also they got pre payment for 18A

When do we count as 18A schedule Initial batch of products will be from Oregon like MTL was the real HVM production will be in Arizona in 2H25 mass availability by Q1 26 sort of LNL style few EPP Panther Lake products inQ325 and mass availability in Q1 26

They have no significant external customers to date.

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
They have no significant external customers to date.

1B$ pre payment is not significant got it

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
1B$ pre payment is not significant got it

Where did you see it was $1B? Why hasn’t it shown up on Intel’s revenue?

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Also are these people lying than?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1852313007142908291

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Where did you see it was $1B? Why hasn’t it shown up on Intel’s revenue?

This was last year

Thunder 57 · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
This was last year

You literally just posted this. And I'm still not going to watch it.

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
This was last year

Intel never announced that amount and it's not mentioned in the interview. So I'd question why Ian splashed the value in as a post edit. Maybe they told him off the record that it was $1B but then I'm not sure why he'd include it then if it was off the record. More importantly, Intel has not recognized that revenue from any of their quarterly earnings so I'm really not sure where that number is coming from.

As far as your other post, again, I'm talking significant deals. Intel does not expect to recognize any significant revenue from external customers until 2027, the CFO said this himself just 2 months ago, and they hope for the foundry to be profitable by 2030. Almost all of the IFS revenue in the short term is on the packaging side and that does not add up to very much. That is the current reality for IFS.

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

Part of the reason I am not a fan of Gelsinger is that he speaks in exaggerations and hyperbole and tends to count chickens before the eggs are even laid. He's mentioned big "customers" multiple times in the past just to find out that they were actually not customers but just interested parties that never actually bought in or were very small players that ordered nothing of significance.

Another example, with Gaudi, he originally said they had a $2B "pipeline" in sales before Gaudi 3 launched. Then he later said they expected $500M in Gaudi 3 sales for 2024. Reality is, well, something significantly less than that and no comment on sales going forward. The $2B pipeline seems to actually be a trickle and the Gaudi line is dead now anyway.

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Oh yeah i totally agree on this one Pipeline and Deals are two different things and whenever he says pipeline be sceptical of it

511 · Nov 13, 2024

Thunder 57 said:
You literally just posted this. And I'm still not going to watch it.

It's your choice i am doing my due diligence of stating the source sorry for the spam if you feel it 🥲

Saylick · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Part of the reason I am not a fan of Gelsinger is that he speaks in exaggerations and hyperbole and tends to count chickens before the eggs are even laid. He's mentioned big "customers" multiple times in the past just to find out that they were actually not customers but just interested parties that never actually bought in or were very small players that ordered nothing of significance.

Another example, with Gaudi, he originally said they had a $2B "pipeline" in sales before Gaudi 3 launched. Then he later said they expected $500M in Gaudi 3 sales for 2024. Reality is, well, something significantly less than that and no comment on sales going forward. The $2B pipeline seems to actually be a trickle and the Gaudi line is dead now anyway.

Yeah, that whole "AMD in the rearview mirror" line struck me as arrogant as well. For an engineer leading an engineering company, I would have expected him to let the products speak for themselves, not to brag AHEAD of time.

511 · Nov 13, 2024

I am pretty sure he thought Intel still has some good things left when he joined only to find out he has been handed a mess but he is too arrogant manytimes he left in 2009 after all

Saylick · Nov 13, 2024

511 said:
I am pretty sure he thought Intel still has some good things left when he joined only to find out he has been handed a mess but he is too arrogant manytimes he left in 2009 after all

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt so maybe he thought Intel was out of the hole, but it was a little premature, imo.

Here's his words, for reference:

"Alder Lake. All of a sudden...Boom! We are back in the game," exclaims the impish tech CEO. "AMD in the rearview mirror in clients [consumer market]," he adds, "and never again will they be in the windshield; we are just leading the market."

Back in the game? Sure. AMD in the rearview mirror? Debatable at the time. Never again will AMD be in the windshield? That's just pure arrogance, especially for having been CEO for less than a year when he said that.

Meteor Late · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Intel's explanation is that 18a is doing so well that they don't need 20a, and so to save cost, they cancelled it.

The other side is that 18a is not arriving earlier than expected (best case is that it's on time), has reduced ppw to match the original 20a target, and has no significant external customers to speak of with reports of potential customers abandoning their plans to use it, with one citing lower than expected yields.

You can make your own call as to what is really going on.

20A was renamed to 18A, this is what is really going on.

Magio · Nov 13, 2024

Meteor Late said:
20A was renamed to 18A, this is what is really going on.

Is there an actual source for that or is this just the usual dooming? 20A wasn't even meant to be library complete and there were only ever a handful of SKUs supposed to even exist on it, the notion that that's the node which will power PTL, CWF and the first cutting edge customer foundry efforts for Intel doesn't make much sense.

cannedlake240 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Part of the reason I am not a fan of Gelsinger is that he speaks in exaggerations and hyperbole and tends to count chickens before the eggs are even laid. He's mentioned big "customers" multiple times in the past just to find out that they were actually not customers but just interested parties that never actually bought in or were very small players that ordered nothing of significance.

Another example, with Gaudi, he originally said they had a $2B "pipeline" in sales before Gaudi 3 launched. Then he later said they expected $500M in Gaudi 3 sales for 2024. Reality is, well, something significantly less than that and no comment on sales going forward. The $2B pipeline seems to actually be a trickle and the Gaudi line is dead now anyway.

They're saying $15B in committed deals. 6 wafer customers(2 added this qtr) and amazon networking group deal, packaging. Microsoft was confirmed as a customer and Nvidia was mentioned in the rumor mill. The customers apparently don't want to be revealed, as Pat says

Hulk · Nov 13, 2024

Saylick said:
Yeah, that whole "AMD in the rearview mirror" line struck me as arrogant as well. For an engineer leading an engineering company, I would have expected him to let the products speak for themselves, not to brag AHEAD of time.

Pat is sitting on the hood of the car and has rotated the rearview mirror 180 degrees. So you see AMD IS in the rearview mirror, "from a certain point of view."

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
They're saying $15B in committed deals. 6 wafer customers(2 added this qtr) and amazon networking group deal, packaging. Microsoft was confirmed as a customer and Nvidia was mentioned in the rumor mill. The customers apparently don't want to be revealed, as Pat says

That's a "lifetime deal" of $15B starting who knows when and who knows how long and that includes packaging revenue. Intel can tout all the lifetime deals and customers they want, the question remains, where is the money? According to their CFO, they don't expect to see anything significant from wafer revenue for over 2 years. If you can show me how to get to billions of dollars in wafer purchases while they report a few hundred million a quarter in mostly packaging deals while saying not to expect significant wafer revenue until 2027, I'd be happy to see it.

cannedlake240 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
That's a "lifetime deal" of $15B starting who knows when and who knows how long and that includes packaging revenue. Intel can tout all the lifetime deals and customers they want, the question remains, where is the money? According to their CFO, they don't expect to see anything significant from wafer revenue for over 2 years. If you can show me how to get to billions of dollars in wafer purchases while they report a few hundred million a quarter in mostly packaging deals while saying not to expect significant wafer revenue until 2027, I'd be happy to see it.

In their quarterly reports where exactly does TSMC show revenue or any kind of 'pre payments' for N2 or future nodes in general? In usual tsmc wafer revenue breakdowns N3 first appeared in Q3 23(so right before iPhone launch), while the node had entered in production in late 2022.
Now look at where Intel is in 18A rollout process: the PDK was apparently delayed and Intel claims the first customer tapeout is in 1H 2025, which translates into the 2026-27 timeline for actual product launch and meaningful revenue as mentioned by the CFO.

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
In their quarterly reports where exactly does TSMC show revenue or any kind of 'pre payments' for N2? In usual tsmc wafer revenue breakdowns N3 first appeared in Q3 23(so right before iPhone launch), while the node had entered in production in late 2022.
Now look at where Intel is in 18A rollout process: the PDK was apparently delayed and Intel claims the first customer tapeout is in 1H 2025, which translates into the 2026-27 timeline for meaningful revenue mentioned by their CFO

Has TSMC talked about receiving large pre-payments? I haven't dug into TSMC's financials so maybe they have but when looking at Intel's, I don't see anywhere there is an additional $1B in pre-payment. If I understand correctly, it should show up within their liabilities until products are shipped, but I don't see anything like that amount appearing in the time frame they say this pre-payment was received.

If it takes 2 years for customers to go from tapeout to production orders, that's a major problem for Intel.

Maybe we are not understanding each other on significant deals. If Intel gets $1B in wafer deals a year, I would say that's not significant when you're trying to be a leading edge foundry. Intel needs 5x that amount minimum to start to have significant volume to justify their operations.

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