Question What will the CPU industry marketshare look like in the future? The Rise of ARM?

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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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Last edited:

poke01

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2022
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Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.


View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.
laptops yes, most likely. If everyone makes ARM chips.

Desktop would stay x86. Mainly because of modularity. Newer standards and designs will keep x86 and the IBM PC alive. LPCAMM and better core designs from AMD and Intel.

Maybe, we might even see ARM socketed CPUs go mainstream. If that happens that would be awesome.
 
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branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
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Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.


View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.
Nothing they conflate ARM with in the article is impossible to do just as well on x86.
And well pivoting to ARM isn't that hard to do if it becomes the new standard. It really does come down to Intel getting back to competitiveness as most x86 losses are on them, along with the natural fact of the x86 licence being locked down from new entrants.
And I think the writers are in way over their heads with signs of lacking technical proficiency, to really understand what they are talking about.
That is all I'll say as I'd be here for a long time otherwise.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
5,145
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Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.


View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.
The link between AI AI AI and ARM is really tenuous.

But I can see how Microsoft and all the OEMs are hoping the following to be true:

"AI PCs will cause PC lifecycles to shorten."

Let's just hope that's not achieved by quickly obsolescing tech and electrical failures.
 
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SteinFG

Senior member
Dec 29, 2021
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Let's just hope that's not achieved by quickly obsolescing tech and electrical failures.
You just won't get any new AI features a year or two after buying a product. Seems like MS wans to double NPU requirements every few years. Well, at least for as long as npu progress is going.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,237
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You just won't get any new AI features a year or two after buying a product. Seems like MS wans to double NPU requirements every few years. Well, at least for as long as npu progress is going.
So, for their 1st gen Copilot+ PCs, Microsoft has specified a minimum of 40 TOPS.

As you mentioned, they are rumoured to double this requirement for their 2nd generation Copilot+ PCs. So something like 80 TOPS?

But current, like the one in the X Elite, do 45 TOPS of INT8. If INT4 becomes the standard for on-device AI, then will the X Elite be able to support 2nd gen Copilot+ PCs? Since, the X Elite's NPU supports INT4, which would theoretically execute at double the speed, aka 90 TOPS.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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The link between AI AI AI and ARM is really tenuous.

Tenuous? Its non-existent. "AI PCs" aren't implementing their AI as part of the CPU ISA, its a totally separate block in everyone's implementation. You could get the same AI performance out of a Pentium Pro if someone cared enough to make an SoC that included that core along with a state of the art NPU block.

That graph showing ARM PCs taking reminds me of the graphs that research firms put out after Windows Phone was released showing it quickly rising to #1 in smartphone sales. That had about as much chance as their graph above does of actually happening.

But hey, "theCube Research" got what they wanted - their research is probably being splashed around all over making everyone familiar with a name I had never heard of before. They know few remember actual predictions, but name recognition among the right people will increase their business. By the time this prediction is obviously wrong and laughable they'll have added a bunch of new customers. And it isn't as if the big boys like Gartner have a great track record (I'm not 100% sure but I think they were the one who made that Windows Phone call I mentioned above)
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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TAIPEI -Arm Holdings aims to gain more than 50% of the Windows PC market in five years, the chip designer's CEO said, as Microsoft and its hardware partners prepare to launch a new batch of computers based on the British firm's technology.
Wow.

The ultimate reckoning for x86?
 

SpudLobby

Senior member
May 18, 2022
991
684
106

Wow.

The ultimate reckoning for x86?
Obviously the axis of AMD here and on Reddit are going to eat sh$! they’ve handed Arm vendors a window for WoA to take off as viable, which probably won’t reverse lol.

But right now it’s just Qualcomm. They’re exceeding expectations on the partnership front, but I wouldn’t even bet they get to 50 in 5 years with QC and AMD/Sammy Exynos/Nvidia’s Intel 3 part (and say there’s a few follow-ups with a similar balance of cost and limited deployment). Not to mention Soundwave is Surface only, too. Exynos if it even happens with the 2500 would be Samsung who commands little marketshare.

Unless Nvidia really goes all-in beyond a midrange cheap-fab part they update, you really need MediaTek. They have the IP and economies of scale from phones, and would be interested in going from 0 to N% marketshare at margins Intel or even AMD don’t do. They also have actual vertically integrated advantages with connectivity I guess, or maybe license Nvidia GPU IP.

And so far we’ve heard not enough about that. Even if they had one good part launching tomorrow, they really would need good gaming drivers and ideally multiple dice to hit the $600-1000 and then $1K and up stuff imo and gaming is going to take time.


I just don’t see it lmao, this is insane cheap talk. Not in 5 years with where we’re starting right now. 2035? Would bet in favor of it! But not 2029.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
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Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,644
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Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?
Maybe because MS is the one backing it. I presume that MS would be willing to throw status quo under the bus if it meant proliferation of Windows in more devices.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,644
8,222
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You're just carving the same TAM out between different vendors.
PC TAM ain't ever going back to the 2021 peak.
But what if the hardware lets you carve out a bigger TAM? Isn't that what this whole AI play is all about? MS has everyone in a vice making AI chips for them.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
3,793
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But what if the hardware lets you carve out a bigger TAM?
How.
Isn't that what this whole AI play is all about?
No, it's an attempt to combat PC refresh cycle slowdown.
2024 PC TAM is still below 2019 levels, after all.
MS has everyone in a vice making AI chips for them.
They had Intel making 4.5W tablet chips and before that, Bay Trails and windows tablets went about nowhere!
 

B-Riz

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2011
1,595
762
136
Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?

Waiting for the day the Fortune 500 companies start buying WoA laptops en masse for employee use...

Your point is hilariously correct, I am stuck (work laptop) on some mediocre "new" Intel 4c8t chip, when AMD has had 6/12 and 8/16 in mobile for a while. The CPU goes to 100% more often than not :|
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,237
2,591
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We have news, my friends.

The Nvidia effort for its PC chip involves help from MediaTek, according to a person familiar with the matter. The MediaTek effort for a PC chip is separate from its collaboration with Nvidia, two of the people said.
So both Nvidia and Mediatek are individually working on their own ARM PC SoCs. A two pronged attack!


This is a photo from Mediatek's Computex 2024 Keynote, where the CEOs of ARM, Mediatek and Nvidia stand shoulder to shoulder as one. A sign of things go come.
 
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