Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Tigerick · Aug 22, 2022

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	12 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	8P + 16E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	36 MB ?	12 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

cannedlake240 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Has TSMC talked about receiving large pre-payments? I haven't dug into TSMC's financials so maybe they have but when looking at Intel's, I don't see anywhere there is an additional $1B in pre-payment. If I understand correctly, it should show up within their liabilities until products are shipped, but I don't see anything like that amount appearing in the time frame they say this pre-payment was received.

If it takes 2 years for customers to go from tapeout to production orders, that's a major problem for Intel.

Maybe we are not understanding each other on significant deals. If Intel gets $1B in wafer deals a year, I would say that's not significant when you're trying to be a leading edge foundry. Intel needs 5x that amount minimum to start to have significant volume to justify their operations.

The question was, where the 18A WSA revenue is and why they said 2027 and not earlier. I don't know about prepayments or where the $1B figure even comes from, that was besides the point. Was just curious whether TSMC generates revenue from nodes that aren't in production yet.

Intel didn't say it'll take 2 years to go from tapeout to launch. The CFO stated that they expect 'some external foundry revenue in 2026 and meaningful revenue starting 2027'. Plus Intel isn't getting iPhone size orders right from the start, the first tapeout chip is likely smaller volume

Hitman928 · Nov 13, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
The question was, where the 18A WSA revenue is and why they said 2027 and not earlier. I don't know about prepayments or where the $1B figure even comes from, that was besides the point. Was just curious whether TSMC generates revenue from nodes that aren't in production yet.

No, TSMC doesn't produce revenue during pre-production. They start showing significant revenue around 6 - 9 months after a node goes HVM as tapeouts are completed and sent to customers.

cannedlake240 said:
Intel didn't say it'll take 2 years to go from tapeout to launch.

I'm using the timeline of a customer taping out in 1H25 but not getting revenue until 2027. They did say some revenue in 2026 so I guess a year later or so which isn't too bad.

cannedlake240 said:
The CFO stated that they expect 'some external foundry revenue in 2026 and meaningful revenue starting 2027'. Plus Intel isn't getting iPhone size orders right from the start, the first tapeout chip is likely smaller volume

Yes, that is my point. Smaller volume = no major customer. Even if the customer is large (AWS) doesn't mean they are doing large volume through IFS. It may turn into that later, but the indications are that the initial wafer deals they have lined up for IFS are not significant volume, not for a company trying to be a leading edge fab.

DavidC1 · Nov 13, 2024

IFS has virtually no external deals. They don't have more deals than they did ten years ago. Packaging deals always existed in one form or another.

It simply is because they have not proved themselves in any way. They aren't even at the point of catching up to where Samsung is in terms of deals.

I do agree many parts of the company needs to put up or shut up. Or put up and shut up. Intel Foundry is a prime example where they talk too much because they got nothing to show for.

cannedlake240 · Nov 13, 2024

DavidC1 said:
IFS has virtually no external deals. They don't have more deals than they did ten years ago. Packaging deals always existed in one form or another.

It simply is because they have not proved themselves in any way. They aren't even at the point of catching up to where Samsung is in terms of deals.

I do agree many parts of the company needs to put up or shut up. Or put up and shut up. Intel Foundry is a prime example where they talk too much because they got nothing to show for.

6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

Thunder 57 · Nov 13, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

I think they're more interested in a proven track record. Right now Intel CPU's (client) are all TSMC except the base tile. That's not a good look.

oak8292 · Nov 13, 2024

Hitman928 said:
Has TSMC talked about receiving large pre-payments? I haven't dug into TSMC's financials so maybe they have but when looking at Intel's, I don't see anywhere there is an additional $1B in pre-payment. If I understand correctly, it should show up within their liabilities until products are shipped, but I don't see anything like that amount appearing in the time frame they say this pre-payment was received.

If it takes 2 years for customers to go from tapeout to production orders, that's a major problem for Intel.

Maybe we are not understanding each other on significant deals. If Intel gets $1B in wafer deals a year, I would say that's not significant when you're trying to be a leading edge foundry. Intel needs 5x that amount minimum to start to have significant volume to justify their operations.

This is a bit tricky. TSMC does show prepayments in their annual financial report, it is under ‘Temporary Receipts from Customers’. I believe these are wafer capacity guarantees for cutting edge nodes. They have about $7 billion and some is current and some is future. There is nothing about which node these guarantees cover, it could be N3.

“The Company’s temporary receipts from customer are payments made by customers to the Company to retain the Company’s capacity. When the terms and conditions set forth in the agreements are subsequently satisfied, the treatment of temporary receipts, either by refund or by accounts receivable offsetting, will be determined by mutual consent.”

Page 45

https://investor.tsmc.com/sites/ir/financial-report/2023/TSMC%202023Q4%20Unconsolidated%20Financial%20Statements_E.pdf

DavidC1 · Nov 14, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
6 customers is no deals? While they might be capacity constrained due to delayed fab expansions only coming online in 2027? 18A will span Intel's entire product stack unlike Intel 4 or 20A. Potential customers have to take that into account before committing to any wafer deals

When is that going to turn into material gains? When will it show in the balance sheet? They've got a whole lot of work to just catch up to Samsung, nevermind TSMC.

It's what, worth $500 million per year now? For their external deals to be valuable it needs to bring in at least $5 billion in revenue if not $10 billion to stop the bleed. This is a huge amount which will require something like a superlarge customer such as Nvidia making x60 and under line up entirely Intel.

The recent admission by the former process head that 18A gains went down to 15%, and in a misleading fashion that it only lost 5% when it's actually 10% does not bring confidence they can reverse this anytime soon.

Let me tell you, if hypothetically they gain leadership with 18A-P and you have fantastic reports coming from Reuters and such and you have multiple big partners making chip making deals not packaging(Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom), then in few years maybe we'll see $2-3 billion. It takes a fantastic product few years just to make a real difference. Intel doesn't have a fantastic product.

511 · Nov 14, 2024

ARL-H GB6

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856965915507925193

511 · Nov 14, 2024

They themselves don't expect meaningful revenue till 27 so we should know there is nothing material now for external
In comparison to Samsung Intel wins easily just the fact that Intel's own volume is more than Samsung currently(samsung counts internal volume as well in their foundry) they are number 2 foundry and they don't have samsung bad yield hell Intel 3 is already at good D0 and is producing more wafers now and very large one have any of samsung recent node done that ?
It is unfair to samsung 🤣 cause intel is killing it in comparison

cannedlake240 · Nov 14, 2024

DavidC1 said:
When is that going to turn into material gains? When will it show in the balance sheet? They've got a whole lot of work to just catch up to Samsung, nevermind TSMC.

It's what, worth $500 million per year now? For their external deals to be valuable it needs to bring in at least $5 billion in revenue if not $10 billion to stop the bleed. This is a huge amount which will require something like a superlarge customer such as Nvidia making x60 and under line up entirely Intel.

The recent admission by the former process head that 18A gains went down to 15%, and in a misleading fashion that it only lost 5% when it's actually 10% does not bring confidence they can reverse this anytime soon.

Let me tell you, if hypothetically they gain leadership with 18A-P and you have fantastic reports coming from Reuters and such and you have multiple big partners making chip making deals not packaging(Amazon, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom), then in few years maybe we'll see $2-3 billion. It takes a fantastic product few years just to make a real difference. Intel doesn't have a fantastic product.

They already said 2H of 26 for some external revenue, ramping going into 27. PDK was made available only recently.

511 · Nov 14, 2024

The first tape out is in 1H25 only Intel product get's the first tape out like Apple does for TSMC for the first nodes now Huawei is done

cannedlake240 · Nov 14, 2024

511 said:
The first tape out is in 1H25 only Intel product get's the first tape out like Apple does for TSMC for the first nodes now Huawei is done

It's probably not a major product either, could be some obscure pipecleaner chip. Plus some clients might prefer 18A-P which goes into production in Q3-Q4 2026

511 · Nov 14, 2024

cannedlake240 said:
It's probably not a major product either, could be some obscure pipecleaner chip. Plus some clients might prefer 18A-P which goes into production in Q3-Q4 2026

We will not know until it releases we don't even know who the customer is also the pipe cleaners are Intel's product

jpiniero · Nov 14, 2024

511 said:
ARL-H GB6

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856965915507925193

Decently better than same laptop model with Meteor Lake-H.

Hulk · Nov 14, 2024

jpiniero said:
Decently better than same laptop model with Meteor Lake-H.

Same score in ST as Lunar Lake, 50% better in MT. Maybe the "fix" is in!

gdansk · Nov 14, 2024

Hulk said:
Same score in ST as Lunar Lake, 50% better in MT. Maybe the "fix" is in!

The fix being 8 more cores and a higher power limit?

511 · Nov 14, 2024

gdansk said:
The fix being 8 more cores and a higher power limit?

Well the LPE cores doesn't participate in benches in MTL

dttprofessor · Nov 15, 2024

511 said:
Well the LPE cores doesn't participate in benches in MTL

ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

511 · Nov 15, 2024

dttprofessor said:
ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

In MTL-H it is EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP-LPELPE

dttprofessor · Nov 15, 2024

511 said:
In MTL-H it is EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP-LPELPE

I don't think so.

511 · Nov 15, 2024

dttprofessor said:
I don't think so.

Here is the proof of My U9

Thunder 57 · Nov 15, 2024

dttprofessor said:
ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

I have to admit, I saw this and my mind read HELP. Sorry for the OT.

fastandfurious6 · Nov 15, 2024

dttprofessor said:
ARL-H: EEEEEEEE-PPPPPP
MTL-H: PEEEE-PPPPP-EEEE
2LPE on both ARL&MTL is too small to use,just for idle.

All I read is Intel [Little-Little] PEEE PEEE

Hulk · Nov 15, 2024

Thank you to the person who told me to ask Intel for a refund. I did just that and they are going to refund me the purchase price of my 14900K. Looks like I'm moving to AMD.

DrMrLordX · Nov 15, 2024

Hulk said:
Thank you to the person who told me to ask Intel for a refund. I did just that and they are going to refund me the purchase price of my 14900K. Looks like I'm moving to AMD.

Sadly you're still stuck with a board for which you won't get any refunds.

Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Senior member

Attachments

Senior member

Diamond Member

Golden Member

Senior member

Diamond Member

Member

Golden Member

Golden Member

Golden Member

Senior member

Golden Member

Senior member

Golden Member

Lifer

Diamond Member

Diamond Member

Golden Member

Member

Golden Member

Member

Golden Member

Diamond Member

Senior member

Diamond Member

Lifer