News Intel 3Q24 Earnings Results

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If ever there was a better proof of "word of mouth" marketing. News spreads fast, bad news spreads even faster!
Pat should be on his knees now in front of Lisa, asking, "Just give us your business. We'll let you use our fabs and then you can decide what you want to pay us. But please, give it to us. Just give it!".

Because what else are they gonna manufacture in them? Atoms and Celerons?
 
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Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
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However, Intel
The article actually mentions AMD as a possible merger, but I don't see it as realistic. Or desirable for AMD.

Ironically, though, any acquisition of Intel could cost Intel its X86 license unless AMD approves of the acquisition.

Buried within all the X86 cross-licensing agreements between Intel and AMD, there is mutual language that deals specifically with transfer of X86 licenses.

Apparently, if either Intel or AMD is acquired by another company, the remaining company retains the right to cancel the X86 license of the acquired company.

So even if AMD doesn't want to merge, they can essentially prevent anyone else from doing it either.

Unless they offer AMD a deal they just can't resist.
 

Thibsie

Senior member
Apr 25, 2017
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Well, AMD might be interested by CPU engineering teams, some techs too but acquiring the whole company with all its problems ? I don't see how AMD would want that burden. That would just jeopardize their growth.

Canceling the Intel x86 license (after takeover) would be bad for competition and anti-trust. They might want some restriction on the buying company though. Maybe.

Of course, Nvidia taking over Intel would be bad for AMD and they should opposé to that without some guarantee.
 

poke01

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2022
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Of course, Nvidia taking over Intel
No, just no. Nvidia cannot make CPUs they are inherently horrible at them. Ever wonder why they use stock ARM cores instead of custom ARM cores because they are only good at graphics and networking.

It’s better if Samsung thought Intel.

Edit: maybe not Samsung. Just turn Intel into a consortium
 
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Well, AMD might be interested by CPU engineering teams, some techs too but acquiring the whole company with all its problems ? I don't see how AMD would want that burden. That would just jeopardize their growth.
Lisa could make the combined company more focused. But to do that, she may need to lay off 2/3 of the Intel workforce since if it comes to choosing between employees with overlapping functions, she is more likely to prefer her own employees rather than the sick company AMD merges with. At this point, there seems to be little hope other than ripping the band-aid off and amputating a few limbs of the Intel 800 pound gorilla. But gorillas are strong. I think Intel would survive just fine with one arm
 
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Nvidia cannot make CPUs they are inherently horrible at them.
Nvidia could have success at designing CPUs with GPU strengths, that is, SMT4 or even SMT8. CPU designers without GPU experience have a glaring blindspot with respect to crazy parallelization and excellent workload distribution techniques.
 

lightmanek

Senior member
Feb 19, 2017
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Well, AMD might be interested by CPU engineering teams, some techs too but acquiring the whole company with all its problems ? I don't see how AMD would want that burden. That would just jeopardize their growth.

Canceling the Intel x86 license (after takeover) would be bad for competition and anti-trust. They might want some restriction on the buying company though. Maybe.

Of course, Nvidia taking over Intel would be bad for AMD and they should opposé to that without some guarantee.
AMD did that back in the day with ATi, took over company with problems ... Took them 10 years to make it work, but in the end I think it was worth it.
I'm not so sure about buying/merging with Intel. First of all, we as consumers need competition, secondly, Intel Fabs are probably the most interesting asset for AMD, and they are in need of massive investments and new management. Monumental task to turn it around and something I don't thing AMD needs right now.
Better for Intel to be taken over or merged with Samsung ... discuss
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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Buried within all the X86 cross-licensing agreements between Intel and AMD, there is mutual language that deals specifically with transfer of X86 licenses.

Apparently, if either Intel or AMD is acquired by another company, the remaining company retains the right to cancel the X86 license of the acquired company.
Is there a source for this? Or is it one of those rumours that have been repeated over and over again so many times, that it has come to be accepted as fact?
 

Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
3,276
1,025
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No, just no. Nvidia cannot make CPUs they are inherently horrible at them. Ever wonder why they use stock ARM cores instead of custom ARM cores because they are only good at graphics and networking.

It’s better if Samsung thought Intel.

Edit: maybe not Samsung. Just turn Intel into a consortium

Nvidia could have success at designing CPUs with GPU strengths, that is, SMT4 or even SMT8. CPU designers without GPU experience have a glaring blindspot with respect to crazy parallelization and excellent workload distribution techniques.

We will actually have the opportunity to find out about this in late 2025/2026 as Nvidia already has existing taped out designs for their own commercial ARM-based CPU. They are supposed to introduce them in 2025 and release them for sale in 2026.
 

Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
3,276
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Is there a source for this? Or is it one of those rumours that have been repeated over and over again so many times, that it has come to be accepted as fact?

I doubt the text of the actual licensing agreements between the two companies is available to anyone outside the legal departments of either company.

I also have no doubt that this "rumor" is a true one.

Intel and AMD actually cross-license parts of X86 to each other. Though Intel owns the original X86 ISA in general, people forget that AMD has significant intellectual property and patents of its own related to X86.

Specifically, do recall that AMD essentially created the X86-64 architecture and owns the resulting patents to it. Under the cross licensing agreement, Intel was granted a reciprocal license to use a version of the X86-64 ISA extensions in their own products. Which is why AMD and Intel's processors still have full compatibility with each other running the exact same software despite differing design philosophies.

From the way it was explained to me, that is why the language on license transfer is mutual and not just Intel-dictated (i.e. because both Intel and AMD have IP at risk if an X86 license is ever transferred to another company via acquisition).

Though, to be sure, when Intel signed those agreements I have no doubt Intel had never even conceived of a situation where they (and not AMD) were the company that was at actual risk of being acquired.
 
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A whole campus!

I wonder if they did a proper cost benefit analysis or someone simply convinced Pat and others in a meeting that this campus is the least productive of them all. Trying to understand the impact of someone's work is one of the hardest things for HR to do. A person may not seem like doing much but the same person could be responsible for handling multiple related important tasks that need to be handled by the same person. Firing that person would usually result in distributing those tasks among different people, maybe not even in the same location and then that would introduce delays and overhead that were not being felt before.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
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You think ARL is a "disaster" because it doesn't get any performance increases in games. That's a minority of the market. For most non-gaming benchmarks it does get a nice gain over the previous Intel CPUs, especially when taking power into account. Whether you have confidence in 18A has no bearing on the stock market. If respected analysts they listen to start sounding alarm bells then it'll impact the stock. But it may turn out fine, despite your lack of confidence.
It is a minority of the desktop market which is a minority of the x86 market .... so truly a little sliver.
Gaming may be a "minority" of the market, but it is highly visible and influences the perception of the rest of the line, IMO. You of course will probably disagree, and more power to you. AMD has already slashed prices on non-x3D versions of Zen 5 due to lack of performance improvement. ARL is even more disappointing than Zen 5, and I think they will have to cut prices drastically to move the product. And they dont have an equivalent to the x3D chips to hold up prices on at least part of the line.
AMD has slashing prices has nothing to do with gaming performance of non-X3D parts, but rather the overall weak market for PC's and especially desktop PC's. Interesting that you feel gaming has some effect on processor price overall in a market dominated by corporate laptop sales.
Bigger variable, short term, than ARL poor performance in some application is loss of confidence by big OEMs in stability of Intel chips, after the Raptor Lake fiasco. Intel had a virtual monopoly on corporate desktops, and that is going away.

Intel's lost $457m in desktop revenue in Q3 (6.2% of total client revenue of $7.3 billion). That's going to leave a mark. We will see if it is only a 1 quarter scratch, or a permanent mark.

2nd variable is higher cost of ARL CPUs. There will be much less room for Intel to offer sweetheart deals on ARL vs. 6+8 RPL.

So, it is one, two punch: Loss of reputation of stability + price increase.
Totally agree. LNL is a pretty good laptop chip (especially for thin and light), unfortunately for Intel, the loss of confidence from OEM's and the cost of making the chip to Intel is kinda like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. I think that ARL-H is going to face strong competition from AMD offerings in both performance, and most definitely in pricing.
OK then, I will rephrase the question: why would anyone buy ARL for any reason (except price)? Its the proverbial "dead man walking". I think Intel will have to cut prices to the bone, or give some sort of rebate or incentive to move the product, which is not exactly what you want to be doing for a company that is, to put it mildly, strapped for revenue. Hell, even last gen RL is probably a better deal for business/consumer use where stability should not be an issue on the lower skus.
ARL (desktop I assume) performs pretty well in everything but games. I really do think that Intel's bigger issue is cost.

Lets do keep in mind here that Intel is HARDLY the underdog of the PC market. They currently have like 75% of the x86 market (someone correct me if I am wrong). I think their market share is going to be stable enough for some time. I am more concerned about their financial health. They are bleeding cash at an alarming rate.
 
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