Discussion Qualcomm Snapdragon Thread

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NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,743
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GloFo is not in the gutter, they dropped out completely with regard to leading edge nodes.
The text for the €7.4B GF/ST chip act literally states: continue investing in the development of the next generation of FD-SOI technologies.

Where that $1.5B Chips Act which has this: "New State-of-the-Art 300 mm Fab: The construction of a new, large-scale 300 mm fabrication facility that is expected to produce high value technologies not currently available in the U.S."
Is meant to be prepared to be thee leading edge US fab for FDX.
Which should be the one to actually produce this:

With that no clue if Snapdragon would use FDX in main AP. However, the newcomers on FDX should basically curb-stomp Snapdragon 200/2 series.
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,238
2,592
106
You guys know how Intel uses the last digit of the SKU name to indicate the amount of on-package memory?

Core Ultra 7 256V = 16 GB
Core Ultra 7 258V = 32 GB

If Qualcomm ever decides to bring on-package memory to their PC chip, they can use the last 3 digits to indicate it;

SKU On-package Memory
X2E-80-01616 GB
X2E-80-03232 GB
X2E-80-06464 GB
X2E-80-128128 GB

Now that looks clean, doesn't it?
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,238
2,592
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"Geekerwan’s Q&A Live

Q. Is this year better than last year for upgrading devices?

A. I think so. This year, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Apple have all made significant advancements. Compared to the previous generation, there have been major improvements, especially in terms of chipsets.

So, I believe it’s a good time. No matter which brand you prefer, if you’re considering an upgrade, it seems like a reasonable choice. After all, chipsets have a big impact on performance.

The most notable progress this generation has been in efficiency. And efficiency directly affects battery life. Additionally, this year, devices from Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek have all seen an increase in battery capacity.

Battery life has improved across the board compared to previous generations. Longer battery life and reduced heat generation—these are the factors that influence user experience, right? These are the biggest improvements.

Q. Are you planning to buy the Samsung S25 Ultra early next year?

A. I don’t think I will. I’m still deciding on what my next phone will be. I feel like I prefer smaller screen phones, so I’m considering going back to a compact device.
(Info: Current phone is Galaxy S23 Ultra in Space Black.)

Q. Over the past few years, it seems like whichever comes out first between Snapdragon or Dimensity tends to fall behind. Hmm.

A. First of all, last year, the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 came out first but couldn’t outperform the Dimensity 9300, right?

This year, the Dimensity 9400 launched first, but the Snapdragon 8 Elite, which came later, ended up being stronger. You could say the 8 Elite is slightly better overall, especially in terms of efficiency.

The Dimensity 9200 generation was completely outclassed by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, wasn’t it? The 9200 couldn’t match the 8 Gen 2.

For this generation, the Dimensity 9400 is slightly behind the Snapdragon 8 Elite. When you look at aspects like battery life or gaming performance, the 8 Elite is a bit better overall.

That’s true; the Dimensity 9400 is more affordable in terms of its purchase price. However, it’s hard to say how this affects the final device price because that ultimately depends on how manufacturers decide to price their products."

Also comments about energy efficiency curve:

"
He also talked about the energy efficiency curve, which can be summarized as follows:

Let’s discuss low-frequency multi-core performance. Low-frequency scenarios are not very common in real-world usage. Such scenarios typically occur during idle states, standby modes, or ultra-light workloads.

The use of low frequencies differs from scenarios like energy efficiency curve testing, where all cores are run at 100% capacity. In low-load situations, only a single core or dual cores are active, operating at approximately 30-40% load. These light workload conditions deviate from the low-frequency energy efficiency curve.

Ultimately, battery life is the result of a combination of standby power consumption and medium-to-high load power consumption.

Standby power consumption is influenced by factors such as board optimization, the processor’s low-frequency state, and memory DVFS (Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling) optimization. On the other hand, moments when we shop, use social media, watch video apps, load data, or scroll through content are associated with medium-to-high-frequency scenarios.

In these moments, medium or high frequencies are utilized, causing a sharp increase in power consumption. As a result, medium-to-high-frequency efficiency has a more significant impact on battery life in such scenarios.

This means that the low-frequency region of the energy efficiency curve is not directly applicable to real-world situations. In reality, during low-load states, only two or three cores are used, operating at about 30% load, rather than running all cores as is done during curve measurement.

When plotting the energy efficiency curve, running all cores is an unavoidable part of the testing process."

Source: Jukanlosreve [X]
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,238
2,592
106
Slides from Qualcomm Investor Day;

First official mention of Oryon Gen 3!

Targeting 4 billion dollar revenue from PCs in 2029.

They are predicting 30-50% of AI notebooks in 2029 will be non-x86 (aka ARM-based).
 
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jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
1,079
746
136
Looking back through Ryan's thread....

Their numbers are... Optimistic is a notable understatement.
It’s a hype world.

Only way any of this works is if the WoA ecosystem flourishes. And there’s going to be quite a lot of uncertainty about that.

But yeah, count me as skeptical too.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,365
5,884
136
Not in 2029.
2024 PC TAM is the lowest it's been in like 15 years.

Oh I didn't see the 2029 part.

I don't see much happening in PC TAM really. But Intel imploding could definately happen, and if that happens then PC sales have to go somewhere else instead.
 

poke01

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2022
2,581
3,409
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Don’t put too much faith into Qualcomms keynotes, they live in their own distortion field that’s worse than Apples.
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,238
2,592
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yep, Intel won’t implode imo. Everything is solid after Lunar Lake.
Is it? I can already see some cracks.
Don’t put too much faith into Qualcomms keynotes, they live in their own distortion field that’s worse than Apples.
if they are lying to investors, that's an invitation to get sued, no?
It’s a hype world.

Only way any of this works is if the WoA ecosystem flourishes. And there’s going to be quite a lot of uncertainty about that.

But yeah, count me as skeptical too.
Long term, I think Windows-on-ARM will be successful.

What I am skeptical about is how much of the WoA pie Qualcomm will control, considering that Nvidia, Mediatek, AMD, Samsung etc... are also joining the race.
 
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Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
2,888
4,911
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if they are lying to investors, that's an invitation to get sued, no?

Having wildly overoptimistic projections isn't "lying". As far as the SEC or courts are concerned Apple could for instance say "we expect to be selling 50 million Macs a year by 2030, more than double the number we sell now" and that's fine. Its up to investors to decide whether to believe they will do that. If they said "we sold 50 million Macs last year" when the true number is less than half that then they will be in big big trouble.
 
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FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
4,238
2,592
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Qualcomm Investor Day 2024 Livestream:
Timestamp = 1:03:00
In our next product family of PC system solutions, we are going to be moving to the 3rd generation Oryon CPU, with even better performance and battery life, and is currently in development and will be introduced in 2025.
- Alex Katouzian, GM of Compute.

X Elite Gen 2 is coming in time to fight Intel Panther Lake and Nvidia ARM SoC!

Timestamp 1:04:40


According to Microsoft telemetry data, 90% of the time by an average user of a Snapdragon laptop is spent on ARM native apps, running at full performance without emulation loss.
 
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The Hardcard

Senior member
Oct 19, 2021
271
351
106
?

NV and MTK are one and the same, AMD stuff is a one-off semicustom part, Samsung isn't even in the game.
There are some rumorists who claim Nvidia is going to double dip, regular consumer laptops with Mediatek CPUs but then a bigger AI SOC with with their own CPU IP. While there are no details, I wonder if the latter will be for heavy AI work, competing with Strix Halo and M4 Max/Ultra.

I think consumer WoA will exist, but be forced to occupy the budget category. And at that just have some marketshare but never be a huge player. Qualcomm wants to be a top first choice device maker, but I think they were too late.

Above 30 percent single threaded performance, above 40 percent more battery life could have shaken the market. But, here in 2024, they are just even in performance and maybe 10 to 15 percent better battery that forces buyers to trade away significant GPU performance.

So the GPU gets better in 2025, but you still have an SOC that is only slightly better in some areas. There won’t be any standout metric that makes Qualcomm a “gotta have it.” So, to maintain momentum they are going to have to low ball on price. I see WoA as a group being below 25 percent of the market selling laptops at prices mostly above Chromebooks but below x86.
 
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