Discussion AMD cools the pace to Moore's Law Death

OneEng2

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Sep 19, 2022
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So AMD appears to feel that until there can be a significant increase in transistor budget/performance, it doesn't pay to make another core design. So Zen 5 is with us for some time to come (looks like late 2026 to early 2027).

Intel on the other hand is still advertising a blazing pace of new processes and new core designs over the same time window.

What arguments exist for each approach?
 

gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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Based on plans Intel will eclipse AMD in 2026. It's that simple. The current AMD roadmap is only competitive in the server space.

The only defense to AMD's roadmap is that Intel's roadmap is fictional - which is a good defense. But AMD in 2020 wasn't counting on its competitor's plan being fiction.
 

Tech Junky

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Considering Intel was just updating old technology for the past several years with 10++++++++++ nm they're not getting any more money from me. I switched my "server" to AMD last year and waiting on some more AMD laptop options to switch things out 100%.

As to the innovation side of things it doesn't seem like Intel has the engineers they need for moving forward and laying off more instead of restocking seems a bit telling of where things are heading.

A 2 year delay in moving forward isn't really unheard of though. We didn't used to be in a 6 month refresh cycle until recently. AMD seems to be focused on a two prong approach more recently with refreshing AM4 and pushing forward with AM5 refinements. I think AMD would get more traction though by doing more to improve the AM5 chipsets beyond just what they've done so far. Making more changes to their block diagram of things would make them even more enticing for newcomers. One thing that stands out is the uplink from the chipset being x4 instead of x8 like Intel. If they unlocked more bandwidth it would help in stuffing more devices inside at full speed.

For raw power though it's always a struggle to go more dense w/o expanding the footprint and electrical consumption. The flipside is I can expect to be able to upgrade to Zen6 using my current MOBO released in 2021 unlike intel which requires a swap out every 2 years or less at this point.
 

OneEng2

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Sep 19, 2022
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Based on plans Intel will eclipse AMD in 2026. It's that simple. The current AMD roadmap is only competitive in the server space.

The only defense to AMD's roadmap is that Intel's is fictional - which is a good defense. But AMD in 2020 wasn't counting on its competitors road maps being fiction.
Arguably, Intel is still pretending that Moore's law is continuing (which I think we can all agree that it isn't).

AMD is saying that they aren't going to plan a complete architecture release cycle until there is a new and significantly better transistor process to accompany it. This will allow a higher transistor budget and better power figures as well.

What is interesting, is that AMD's consumer processors aren't even on N3E, they are on N4P. One has to question if AMD will be forced to release another variant of Zen before 2027 if Intel's Panther Lake starts eating their lunch in late 2025.
 

OneEng2

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Sep 19, 2022
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Considering Intel was just updating old technology for the past several years with 10++++++++++ nm they're not getting any more money from me. I switched my "server" to AMD last year and waiting on some more AMD laptop options to switch things out 100%.

As to the innovation side of things it doesn't seem like Intel has the engineers they need for moving forward and laying off more instead of restocking seems a bit telling of where things are heading.

A 2 year delay in moving forward isn't really unheard of though. We didn't used to be in a 6 month refresh cycle until recently. AMD seems to be focused on a two prong approach more recently with refreshing AM4 and pushing forward with AM5 refinements. I think AMD would get more traction though by doing more to improve the AM5 chipsets beyond just what they've done so far. Making more changes to their block diagram of things would make them even more enticing for newcomers. One thing that stands out is the uplink from the chipset being x4 instead of x8 like Intel. If they unlocked more bandwidth it would help in stuffing more devices inside at full speed.

For raw power though it's always a struggle to go more dense w/o expanding the footprint and electrical consumption. The flipside is I can expect to be able to upgrade to Zen6 using my current MOBO released in 2021 unlike intel which requires a swap out every 2 years or less at this point.
... and if all AMD did was continue its domination of the DC market, they could arguably afford to lose some ground in desktop and laptop.

You bring up an interesting point though. How will Intel maintain such a break-neck design schedule (both processor and process) while simultaneously cutting huge chunks of engineers ....... all while their stock value drops?

Also, while I think that modifying the IOD of Zen 5 might well unlock more performance for AMD with minimal effort, I wonder if the Zen 5 front end needs modified to really take advantage of additional bandwidth?

Still, lower latency and higher bandwidth through a new IOD would be low hanging fruit for sure. My gut feeling is that AMD may well be forced into a Zen 5 rev 2.
 

gdansk

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Arguably, Intel is still pretending that Moore's law is continuing (which I think we can all agree that it isn't).
Moore's Law may be dead but transistor counts still keep doubling. Zen 3 CCD has less than half the transistors of a Zen 5 CCD.

And for Intel Moore's Law is real - they're behind TSMC so they have plenty of room for growth.
 
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DavidC1

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So AMD appears to feel that until there can be a significant increase in transistor budget/performance, it doesn't pay to make another core design. So Zen 5 is with us for some time to come (looks like late 2026 to early 2027).
AMD is just continuing the 20-22 months cycle.

This is why I said both x86 vendors are in a slump. AMD is better at it but it's sucky versus suckier.
 
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itsmydamnation

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AMD is just continuing the 20-22 months cycle.

This is why I said both x86 vendors are in a slump. AMD is better at it but it's sucky versus suckier.
and yet no one else can support massive echo systems like x86 does.

you ignore all the bring up time and diversity of platforms.

By your logic Nvidia is even worse.........
 

gdansk

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By your logic Nvidia is even worse.........
Nvidia is consistent and far, far ahead of their competition in both graphics and ML. Absolute performance, performance per watt, performance per area, new features and applications. They win it all. Every time they deliver a new product after 2 years it's another victory lap and an attempt to get their own customers to buy again.
Neither AMD nor Intel are ahead of their competition in every respect. They're behind in many areas (laptops, consumer devices in general) and ahead in others (gaming perhaps and servers). But they both seem content not to compete with outsiders.
 

itsmydamnation

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Nvidia is consistent and far, far ahead of their competition in both graphics and ML. Absolute performance, performance per watt, performance per area, new features and applications. They win it all. Every time they deliver a new product after 2 years it's another victory lap and an attempt to get their own customers to buy again.
Neither AMD nor Intel are ahead of their competition in every respect. They're behind in many areas (laptops, consumer devices in general) and ahead in others (gaming perhaps and servers). But they both seem content not to compete with outsiders.
Yet others aren't actually competing , we have heard this song and dance for like 10 years , but where are the Socketed ARM chips with different configurations of PCI-E , USB, south bridge , in an open ecosystem so I can build my platform exactly the way I want it?

All the ARM guys seem to be able to manage is fixed very limited configurations. Then ARM bro's come along and blab about ARM being able to put out designs at a faster rate. They have significantly less platform development and validation to do.

And in X86 land that just isn't in one market its in all markets across all chipsets , laptop , Desktop , workstation , server.

Then if you look at something AMD does a relatively fixed platform on like MI , and from MI-100 to MI325 you see yearly execution.

Why do you people fail at considering all input parameters to output.

Its obvious that different vendors make different choices , no that x/y/z vendor sux ( intel P core team may be the exception to the rule ).
 

DavidC1

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Yet others aren't actually competing , we have heard this song and dance for like 10 years , but where are the Socketed ARM chips with different configurations of PCI-E , USB, south bridge , in an open ecosystem so I can build my platform exactly the way I want it?

All the ARM guys seem to be able to manage is fixed very limited configurations. Then ARM bro's come along and blab about ARM being able to put out designs at a faster rate. They have significantly less platform development and validation to do.
We are arguing architecture and you are saying something that has little to do, or something nothing to do with it.

Of course in a general sense you have it right, but does it excuse Intel/AMD's lack of ability? I don't think so. If you really like the PC ecosystem represented by x86, then you should want the same - for the main vendors to do better. Mind you, this complacency is what created ARM's resurgence in the first place. Intel wouldn't do it, so Jobs shifted to ARM.

Should you accept mediocrity because that's familiar to you?

2027 for a 10% gain? Is this a race to see who's worse?
 
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gdansk

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, but where are the Socketed ARM chips with different configurations of PCI-E , USB, south bridge , in an open ecosystem so I can build my platform exactly the way I want it?
Here's a garbage one. But you're right - they're not competitive here yet. It's a niche, overall. They're becoming more competitive where the money is (laptops and small desktops).

It's not like ARM vendors will kill x86. Only the x86 vendors can kill x86. By falling behind.

Edit: And I should add the outlook was fine in 2020 and 2022/3. AMD was shipping desktop chips about as fast in 1T as Apple's laptop chips (5950X vs M1, 7950X vs M3). This is the first year that Apple surpassed them and now it'll be ~20 months before they catch up to what Apple is shipping now.
 
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OneEng2

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Sep 19, 2022
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We are arguing architecture and you are saying something that has little to do, or something nothing to do with it.

Of course in a general sense you have it right, but does it excuse Intel/AMD's lack of ability? I don't think so. If you really like the PC ecosystem represented by x86, then you should want the same - for the main vendors to do better. Mind you, this complacency is what created ARM's resurgence in the first place. Intel wouldn't do it, so Jobs shifted to ARM.

Should you accept mediocrity because that's familiar to you?

2027 for a 10% gain? Is this a race to see who's worse?
Ok, lets look at that for a minute.

Lets say AMD releases Zen 6 in 2027. On desktop and possibly laptop I expect this would be N3P/N3X, but on server it would most likely be N2 or N2X.

But unlike the past where transistor budget went up by 50% or more with each node, we are likely looking at something closer to 15% or 20% over AMD's current N4P (someone correct my numbers if I am off here. I know there's a great table on this somewhere on this site ).

So first lets take desktop. I am not buying only 10%. The additional transistor count bundled with a better IOD and faster main memory support should easily eclipse 10%, but I would expect <20%.

For laptop, if they stick with N3X (which for cost reasons I suspect they will), they are likely in the same boat as Desktop.

In server, it is a completely different story. Moving to a 32 core CCD and N2X and higher memory bandwidth with lower latency IOD could easily produce double the performance of today's Turin for the next EPYC processors in 2027.

If Intel insists on its strategy of paying for billions of dollars of new lithography equipment in order to have a node change every year (or even more often), I think it likely that they will find their performance improvements dwindle as exponentially as the node change benefits do each node. This does not seem a sustainable business model to me.

I think it more likely that we are stuck with a certain sized chip for a much longer period of time as in the past. What you do with that die area will become more varied. As an example, specialized parts will be developed with over-sized AI processors in them. A specialized laptop gaming part might have an unusually large number of CU's in its GPU within an APU, but only a couple P cores. A specific desktop part might be created for workstations (AMD already does this) where in the case of Intel, there are just a ton of Skymont class cores in it with a single P core.

I just don't see how it is possible to expect 50% gains in performance at the same price and die size within very similar process nodes.

Oh, and I seriously don't see ARM taking over for x86 in workstation or DC markets. Laptops? Maybe, but not for another 5 years at least IMO. There is just too many things that would need to change to make this true.
 

poke01

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there’s more many to be made in AI and DC than client for x86 players.

Now AMD and Nvidia excel here, but Intels been lacking here.

Qualcomm is also one to look forward to on
Mobile.
Interesting times ahead
 

gdansk

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Feb 8, 2011
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there’s more many to be made in AI and DC than client for x86 players.
ML is optimistic. I don't think anyone can make a dent in Nvidia's market for the foreseeable future. The hyperscalers and Apple will make their own to avoid Nvidia's premium but that also means they avoid any smaller premium that AMD or Intel wanted to charge.

Intel in particular should be fighting hard to keep client. That's what keeps the company alive currently.
 

inquiss

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Oct 13, 2010
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We are arguing architecture and you are saying something that has little to do, or something nothing to do with it.

Of course in a general sense you have it right, but does it excuse Intel/AMD's lack of ability? I don't think so. If you really like the PC ecosystem represented by x86, then you should want the same - for the main vendors to do better. Mind you, this complacency is what created ARM's resurgence in the first place. Intel wouldn't do it, so Jobs shifted to ARM.

Should you accept mediocrity because that's familiar to you?

2027 for a 10% gain? Is this a race to see who's worse?
Why do you think 10% performance is all that zen 6 will bring to the table? That's just the suggested IPC increase, there are other vectors for improved performance...
 

Gideon

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The hyperscalers and Apple will make their own to avoid Nvidia's premium but that also means they avoid any smaller premium that AMD or Intel wanted to charge.
Apple, yep already doing it. and they already have a GPU that looks comparable, but Amazon, Microsoft, Google? I'm not that convinced yet. The success with custom ARM SoCs rode on licensable ARM cores.

I don't think ARM will have anything similarily competitive to offer this decade on the datacenter GPU side. And just looking what multi-chiplet monsters MI350 and MI400 are, I don't believe hyperscalers have the resources to do it all by themselves. Unlike CPUs you pretty much can't do monolithic there, these SKUs are huge.

And hardware isn't even half of the problem. Unlike the (now quite standardized) ARM + Linux ecosystem there is no universal instructions set or even API to adhere to. Nvidia, AMD, Intel ... all have their own stack for ML / Datacenter. ARM (Mali) has ... absolutely nothing AFAIK.
 

FlameTail

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Why do you think 10% performance is all that zen 6 will bring to the table? That's just the suggested IPC increase, there are other vectors for improved performance.
• New IOD
• Frequency Increase

I have a question: Doesn't the performance uplift brought by the new IOD fall into the category of "IPC" ?
 

Meteor Late

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• New IOD
• Frequency Increase

I have a question: Doesn't the performance uplift brought by the new IOD fall into the category of "IPC" ?

Exactly, when you hear Zen 6 will have 10% more IPC, they are comparing a CPU with Zen 6 against a CPU with Zen 5, you run many applications on both and the average is 10%. So IOD is included in it. With the added frequency, the real performance improvement will be close to 20%.
 

SteinFG

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So AMD appears to feel that until there can be a significant increase in transistor budget/performance, it doesn't pay to make another core design. So Zen 5 is with us for some time to come(looks like late 2026 to early 2027).
AMD makes a new core every 2 years for the past 8 years, why are you surprised that Zen 6 is coming out 2 years after Zen 5?
 

SteinFG

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As for intel... they appear to have a 2-year schedule too.
Golden cove "Intel 7" - delayed multiple times, finally released in 2021 after many delays.
Redwood cove "Intel 4" - delayed from 2022 to 2023.
Lion cove - "TSMC N3" / "Intel 20A" - released in 2024, 20A node cancelled.
Coyote cove - "Intel 18A" - releasing in 2026.
 

maddie

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Depends on what they use for testing IPC.
What exactly is termed IPC?

(1) Is it the basic core processing "X" instructions for "Y" cycles = X/Y IPC?

(2) Is it the wider CPU processing "X" instructions for "Y" cycles = X/Y IPC?

(3) Something else?


(2) = real world usage for user. IOD improvements apply here but not in case (1), which seems to assume zero external latency effects. I would assume feeding the cores as relevant to IPC, but it seems core designers think more narrowly (my impression) as in case (1).
 
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