Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

Hitman928 · Nov 18, 2024

fastandfurious6 said:
isn't that "ok" in todays world? I rememeber 4090 costing 4000 dollaroos no?

$1600. Maybe you're thinking of the Titan V? It cost $3000 but was marketed as more of a workstation card than a gaming one.

tajoh111 · Nov 18, 2024

1900 is actually reasonable without competition.

800mm2 die, 512bit bus and 32gb of DDR7 memory are all significant expenses.

Expecting $1599 would require actual competition. Remember Nvidia also has to make profit to cover R and D. Making a new product where all expenses are up and keeping cost the same does not make sense.

Every part of the RTX 5090 is more expensive than the RTX 4090. Significantly so. As a result, if the RTX 5090 was kept at the same price, Nvidia would be absorbing all the costs from those expenses which does not make sense when they have zero competition. Considering the RTX 4090 was the most reasonably priced in the 4000 series, it was always the most likely to have a price increase considering the demand. Add in AI being another market for this product and $1899 is actually reasonable.

$2500 is not and would mark the first steps towards high end graphics cards becoming thread rippers in price. Threadripper is what happens when mainstream products stop increasing in die size, improvements in node are used for die size reduction and mostly cost reduction(we have been stuck at 8 and 16 cores for 5 years). High end becomes ultra niche and super low volume. A 7995x cost 10 thousand dollars and probably cheaper to manufacture than a RTX 5090. It consists of 12 x 71mm2 dies and not much else.

blckgrffn · Nov 18, 2024

I wouldn’t be surprised at all at $2499.

They have to push the envelope to see where it stops.

Frankly for those buying the best I don’t think that’s a big hill to climb. People use their PCs so much, it can be straightforward to justify.

poke01 · Nov 19, 2024

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858697224932250009

Not surprised, news publications do spread FUD

jpiniero · Nov 20, 2024

https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-to-continue-geforce-rtx-4050-laptop-gpu-supply-as-rtx-5050-targets-higher-price-tier-lenovo-pm-claims

Not that you needed confirmation... but... nVidia is going to keep producing the 4050 laptop (and only that one) in large part because the 5050 laptop is going to cost more.

Aapje · Nov 20, 2024

tajoh111 said:
Expecting $1599 would require actual competition. Remember Nvidia also has to make profit to cover R and D. Making a new product where all expenses are up and keeping cost the same does not make sense.

I'm fine with a high price for the top end if the prices are a lot more reasonable for the mid and low end.

WelshBloke · Nov 20, 2024

tajoh111 said:
Expecting $1599 would require actual competition. Remember Nvidia also has to make profit to cover R and D. Making a new product where all expenses are up and keeping cost the same does not make sense.

Nvidia made a profit of $30B in 2024, up 581% on 2023!

blckgrffn · Nov 20, 2024

WelshBloke said:
Nvidia made a profit of $30B in 2024, up 581% on 2023!

And they’ll need to do better in the future. Crazy.

tajoh111 · Thursday at 1:57 AM

WelshBloke said:
Nvidia made a profit of $30B in 2024, up 581% on 2023!

That's on primarily datacenter obviously.

What I mean is there is not really any point in making a new product if your in a dominant position if your not making extra money from the investment.

If you making a product that cost more to make than your predecessor, your just making your margins smaller if you selling at the same cost which is kind of stupid when you have to pay for the R and D investment and your competition is putting zero pressure on you.

Your better off doing an Intel or AMD strategy when your in a dominant position and just making the product smaller or the same and just using the performance characteristics of a better node to sell the product.

TESKATLIPOKA · Thursday at 5:40 AM

WelshBloke said:
Nvidia made a profit of $30B in 2024, up 581% on 2023!

What? They clearly made way more than that(>$50B net income) and we are talking only about 9 months.

jdubs03 · Thursday at 6:24 AM

TESKATLIPOKA said:
What? They clearly made way more than that(>$50B net income) and we are talking only about 9 months.

They’re going to set a record. No question.

jpiniero · Thursday at 9:28 AM

https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-geforce-rtx-5070-ti-reportedly-features-8960-cuda-cores-and-300w-power-specs

5070 Ti is rumored to be 70 SMs, which is 4 more than the 4070 Ti Super. Presumably it'd have 256 bit 28 gbps GDDR7. So maybe 10-15% slower than 4090/5080.

marees · Thursday at 9:30 AM

jpiniero said:
https://videocardz.com/newz/nvidia-geforce-rtx-5070-ti-reportedly-features-8960-cuda-cores-and-300w-power-specs

5070 Ti is rumored to be 70 SMs, which is 4 more than the 4070 Ti Super. Presumably it'd have 256 bit 28 gbps GDDR7. So maybe 10-15% slower than 4090/5080.

For $700 ???

jpiniero · Thursday at 9:36 AM

marees said:
For $700 ???

Hahaha

Gideon · Friday at 3:23 AM

If the past is any guide Nvidia will just shift most of the cards up half a price bracket.

Meaning 5070 Ti will get the 4080 price bracket, 5070 the 4070 Ti bracket, etc ...

jpiniero · Friday at 6:58 AM

https://videocardz.com/newz/geforce-rtx-5090-5080-5070ti-and-5070-to-launch-in-q1-rtx-5070-expected-to-feature-6400-cores

Videocardz seems to think anyway that the 5070 is the full GB205 die, so 50 SMs. So 11% less than the 4070 Super.

deasd · Friday at 8:25 AM

Am I missing something, it seems the performance uplift are mostly from the TDP increase if these Blackwell SPEC are correct?

jpiniero · Friday at 8:43 AM

deasd said:
Am I missing something, it seems the performance uplift are mostly from the TDP increase if these Blackwell SPEC are correct?

The 5090 should outperform it's TDP increase but otherwise yeah.

Saylick · Friday at 11:05 AM

Seems GB202 is 744mm2:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1859979651206303884

jpiniero · Friday at 11:20 AM

Saylick said:
Seems GB202 is 744mm2:

That's not too bad given the extra cores.

del42sa · Friday at 11:55 AM

jpiniero said:
That's not too bad given the extra cores.

I was expecting much bigger, size always matter

gdansk · Friday at 1:17 PM

Due to higher TDP and more memory bandwidth these will be a bit faster than implied.
But they are correct. The entire line up is designed to make the $2000 monstrosity look like a good value by denying logical increments.

And people will blame AMD and Intel for not competing, which is partially true, but they have a hard time slinging large dies when no one will pay a premium for them. N21 was big and good enough; didn't matter it didn't sell (or rather they're still selling them!) and the people behind it have been sacked or moved to ML crap.

Aapje · Saturday at 11:48 AM

tajoh111 said:
What I mean is there is not really any point in making a new product if your in a dominant position if your not making extra money from the investment.

There are a lot of companies that either thought this way or stopped caring about underperformance, who then got in big trouble when a strong competitor did threaten them.

One of them is Intel.

igor_kavinski · Saturday at 12:26 PM

gdansk said:
N21 was big and good enough; didn't matter it didn't sell (or rather they're still selling them!) and the people behind it have been sacked or moved to ML crap.

They could still produce those big dies on older processes and fix what was wrong with their designs to eek out a bit more performance, rather than paying more for expensive leading edge processes and trying to do chiplets and the associated challenges of making them work as well as monolithic dies.

jpiniero · Saturday at 9:10 PM

So I took another shot at predicting Blackwell's performance (raster anyway)

5090 = 4090 + 70%
5080 = ~4090
5070 Ti = ~4080S + 10-15%
5070 = ~4070 Ti NS
5060 Ti = 4060 Ti (8 GB) + 15-20%
5060 = 4060 + 0-5%

Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q4-2024 ?

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