Could 2025 be a good year for free operating systems?

thedighubs · Dec 7, 2024

Good morning my dear friends

Well could the next year be a great time for open source operating systems?

Imagine:
Linux has been on a slow-but-steady and very successful rise for years, but as of August it's at 4.5 percent of the global desktop market sharing . This is awesome 😎 imagine - If it keeps this pace up, it could break through five percent in early next summer.

What are your thoughts

BoomerD · Dec 7, 2024

I think I've never used any linux based system...and I don't foresee ever doing so...but, who knows? Stranger things have happened.

mikeymikec · Dec 7, 2024

Isn't "could year xxxx be the Year of Linux on the Desktop?" a running joke on Slashdot?

(said the Linux user)

biostud · Dec 7, 2024

For now I'll keep my VM running Linux Mint, but I don't think I'll do dual boot anytime soon.

It's a really nice and hazzle free way to learn a new OS, but I really don't have a compelling reason to do more atm.

biostud · Dec 7, 2024

BoomerD said:
I think I've never used any linux based system...and I don't foresee ever doing so...but, who knows? Stranger things have happened.

If you ever feel curious it is quite easy to setup a VM and see what the fuzz is about, without messing with your current setup.

sdifox · Dec 7, 2024

sudo chmod -R 777

lxskllr · Dec 7, 2024

The linux kernel dominates computing. Nothing else comes close. It's position in the niche of "desktop os" is irrelevant. I've been using it exclusively >15yr. Others can join me, or not.

manly · Dec 7, 2024

mikeymikec said:
Isn't "could year xxxx be the Year of Linux on the Desktop?" a running joke on Slashdot?

(said the Linux user)

It used to be but you could argue we're closer to a tipping point. 5% of total PCs is a pretty solid number. It's still small but that's about where Apple was when Mac OS X was a niche system for graphics/video creators, before the iPhone carried the Mac into mainstream use.
Granted, it's harder having to take share from Windows AND macOS (than from just Win7 alone), but seems like people like yourself are finding new places to recommend Linux to others.

In other words, slow and steady progress after many years of "irrelevance."

OTOH mobile devices are a much larger market, and the OS bean counters don't consider Android as GNU/Linux even though it sits on the same kernel.

KLin · Dec 7, 2024

sudo make me a sandwich

/XKCD

Red Squirrel · Dec 7, 2024

Linux will dominate all desktops by end of next year. It's part of Project 2025.

mikeymikec · Dec 7, 2024

manly said:
It used to be but you could argue we're closer to a tipping point.

In my experience, most people don't like learning things and they don't like change. Linux requires both of those elements to be embraced.

The only tipping point would be if the competition was removed / removed itself, say through enshittification.

manly · Dec 7, 2024

mikeymikec said:
In my experience, most people don't like learning things and they don't like change. Linux requires both of those elements to be embraced.

The only tipping point would be if the competition was removed / removed itself, say through enshittification.

I think Linux share of the PC market was under 2% for the longest time; only in recent years has it somehow increased to 4.5%. I'm not sure how the counting is done, and whether Steam Deck has some impact on the numbers. But the trendline has been in the right direction, slowly but steadily.

I don't think you're wrong about people resisting change; but even so, we've already witnessed a transition from the PC era to the mobile device era. Some people had to learn a new touch UI, while much of the developing world went straight to mobile. My mom does all her computing on an iPad now, partly because I refuse to stand up a new Windows PC.

As for enshittification, there's enough evidence that some consumers are not embracing Windows Spamvertising edition.* The Mac ecosystem is healthy, and Linux is doing all right despite rarely being pre-installed on PCs. For most normies, the greatest barrier to entry is having to install a distro.

* Remember Win10 is EOL in late 2025; consumers can pay for just one extra year of extended support.

DigDog · Dec 9, 2024

nooooope.

brianmanahan · Dec 9, 2024

2025 is truly the year of the linux desktop

for real this time

JM Aggie08 · Dec 9, 2024

It's always a good year for open source. Betch.

dank69 · Dec 9, 2024

BoomerD said:
I think I've never used any linux based system...and I don't foresee ever doing so...but, who knows? Stranger things have happened.

What kind of smartphone do you have?

Kaido · Dec 9, 2024

My opinion: Apple should release a Mac Mini that runs iPad OS. Basically a Chromebook with Apple apps. This is what 99% of non-geeky home users need! App Store, no virus issues, easy push-button computing.

[DHT]Osiris · Dec 9, 2024

dank69 said:
What kind of smartphone do you have?

ATM, stoplight, external hard drive, hell probably garage door opener at this point.

mikeymikec · Dec 9, 2024

Kaido said:
My opinion: Apple should release a Mac Mini that runs iPad OS. Basically a Chromebook with Apple apps. This is what 99% of non-geeky home users need! App Store, no virus issues, easy push-button computing.

Apple should release a Mac Mini with a visible power button. #thelowestbarfirst

Brainonska511 · Dec 9, 2024

mikeymikec said:
In my experience, most people don't like learning things and they don't like change. Linux requires both of those elements to be embraced.

The only tipping point would be if the competition was removed / removed itself, say through enshittification.

In my experience using Linux, there are things that were fine, but there were enough other random things that would pop up that would kill any wide scale user base adoption.

mikeymikec · Dec 9, 2024

Brainonska511 said:
In my experience using Linux, there are things that were fine, but there were enough other random things that would pop up that would kill any wide scale user base adoption.

In my experience, regardless of platform there is often an element of "the things I thought were going to be easy were hard, and vice versa"... even when I've had prior experience of implementing those things

Previous to my 2018 migration to Linux, the point I always fell down on with Linux was software installation and updates. At some point during the last ~20 years it improved a bit, and I also adjusted my expectations. Going with the flow with software updates is now easy, and my expectation of running say the latest version of LibreOffice has been adjusted to a currently security-patched version of LibreOffice. It's odd that things are that way, but then every other OS platform has its foibles too; people get used to them and think that's what's normal and other platforms that deviate from it are odd/wrong.

I'm offering Linux Mint to my customers now, but I'm only suggesting it to customers with basic needs that I'm confident I can provide for (though printing/scanning support I'm going on a leap of faith with regard to third party support).

BurnItDwn · Dec 9, 2024

Microsoft is killing windows slowly. Getting worse and worse as the years progress.
The enshitification of windows is slow though. So many people eat the shit they are given (aka windows 11)

manly · Dec 9, 2024

Kaido said:
My opinion: Apple should release a Mac Mini that runs iPad OS. Basically a Chromebook with Apple apps. This is what 99% of non-geeky home users need! App Store, no virus issues, easy push-button computing.

Huh, isn't Google nuking ChromeOS because it's a failure outside of selling a bunch of units to schools that were largely misused and abused?

For the home users you're talking about, a good iPad is fine. Making that into a mini PC format doesn't add anything for them. It does tie them to sitting at a desk.

I realize we're a niche case, but the real complaint of geeks over these years is that iPadOS continues to limit the true usefulness of the hardware*. Geeks actually want convergence in the other direction: make iPadOS more like macOS so that you get real desktop-class apps. But convergence means Apple sells fewer devices, so why would they ever do that?

* All recent iPad Pros are basically Mac minis now, without the external ports. But most often they are used as media consumption devices. A couple years back, they did make it possible to connect an iPad Pro to a display, KB+mouse but you're still stuck with a bunch of "mobile" apps.

Red Squirrel · Dec 9, 2024

Windows is gross now, I really do wonder what their intention is or if they just don't care since they know the bigger market share (ex: companies) are probably going to just keep putting up with it. Before I switched to Linux I always had it on the back of my head to do the switch, but my reason was that I wanted to try to get rid of proprietary software in my life. But now my reason is also because Windows just plain sucks. Windows 8 was the first nail in the coffin imo. That seemed to steer it towards a shitty direction. Now it's basically malware.

Fanatical Meat · Dec 9, 2024

Until I can use whatever free OS and have it work with no additional effort whit office programs and steam and occasionally syncing my phone it will not be the year.

Could 2025 be a good year for free operating systems?

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