Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q1-2025

xnery007 · Dec 28, 2024

Since smaller companies and AI tech enthusiasts who build rigs at home for their own or commercial purposes with ten 4090 GPUs are buying from the same sources as gamers, something like this will probably never happen.
However, Nvidia is surely pleased to have tapped into another market where they can sell these cards—at a much higher price than what someone who just wants to play the new Indiana Jones game would be willing to pay.

Thunder 57 · Dec 28, 2024

SolidQ said:
if it's like 4070 perf with 16Gb, gonna be nice card

I disagree. It might be good when it comes out, but I don't expect it to age well. It might be April by the time it comes out.

Thunder 57 · Dec 28, 2024

xnery007 said:
Since smaller companies and AI tech enthusiasts who build rigs at home for their own or commercial purposes with ten 4090 GPUs are buying from the same sources as gamers, something like this will probably never happen.
However, Nvidia is surely pleased to have tapped into another market where they can sell these cards—at a much higher price than what someone who just wants to play the new Indiana Jones game would be willing to pay.

Between the human malware and (3rd?) crypto boom Nvidia and AMD found out people will pay to play. Now they are making us pay more because they know we will.

What sucks is that after the (1st) crpto bust I was able to but a 270X on ebay for half the MSRP, at just over $100. That doesn't happen anymore.

basix · Dec 28, 2024

Thunder 57 said:
I disagree. It might be good when it comes out, but I don't expect it to age well. It might be April by the time it comes out.

Why should it not age well? 16GB is well enough for anything within that peformance range, raw performance of a 4070 is OK for very most games (1440p or 1440p with DLSS-Q) and Blackwell is the newest architecture with the newest features (and potentially some new DLSS & RT goodies).

I'm talking about performance specs only and not a potentially bad price/performance ratio, which might be very true (vs. N48 cards and/or a soon to be released 5060 Ti 12GB with 24Gbit GDDR7 chips)

Thunder 57 · Dec 28, 2024

basix said:
Why should it not age well? 16GB is well enough for anything within that peformance range, raw performance of a 4070 is OK for very most games (1440p or 1440p with DLSS-Q) and Blackwell is the newest architecture with the newest features (and potentially some new DLSS & RT goodies).

I'm talking about performance specs only and not a potentially bad price/performance ratio, which might be very true (vs. N48 cards and/or a soon to be released 5060 Ti 12GB with 24Gbit GDDR7 chips)

Want to shill harder for Nvidia? This reads like an ad. Except that even you say a 5060 Ti 12GB (which I expect to see with the Super) will have less VRAM and suddenly that's OK?

basix · Dec 28, 2024

I do not shill for Nvidia nor any other company. But from objective technical standpoints I do not see any reason, why a 5060 Ti 16GB should be a bad product or should age badly. So please explain it here to us, I'm curious for your arguments.
Too high consumer prices is another business and not part of this particular discussion, because the card won't age differently when prices change.

A 5060 Ti 12GB won't be a bad card either. It might run earlier into VRAM issues, but it is still a decent 1440p card and very nice for 1080p if priced adequately. For e.g. 399$ it will be miles better than a 4060 Ti 8GB at the same 399$ price tag. Saying anything different is only for flame wars, because I would say the very same if it would be an AMD or Intel card with the same technical characteristics. Sure, 16GB are better than 12GB. But 12GB are far better than 8GB. And the 12GB version will cost less and typically have a better price/performance ratio than the 16GB version, if VRAM is not the issue (which it will not in most cases). So you can choose: Typically better price/performance ratio with the 12GB version but at some point in the future earlier obsolescence due to overfilled VRAM (depending on your screen resolution). Or if you want to play safe on VRAM take the 16GB version.

But go on, you could convince me now with some constructive points and arguments besides of denouncing me as a Nvidia shill. So please go ahead.

Jan Olšan · Dec 28, 2024

SolidQ said:
Dreamer!

Those would be decent prices, relatively.
Even though $1000-1300 is still 2x of what the price for a highend (top of the stack) gaming graphics card was 12 years ago. (And it used to be closer to say $499 just a few years before that.)

As the poster said, "should be", not will be.

"""""""Thanks""""""", nGreedia

igor_kavinski · Dec 28, 2024

Jan Olšan said:
"""""""Thanks""""""", nGreedia

Big bundle of thanks should also go to Raja Koduri, for sabotaging the GPU efforts of the only other two x86 GPU competitors, with his incompetence.

igor_kavinski · Dec 28, 2024

RTX 5090 and RTX 5080 listed for $2,600 and $1,350 at Chinese retailer

37% more expensive than the RTX 4090 when adjusted for VAT.

www.tomshardware.com

Happy new year?

Win2012R2 · Dec 28, 2024

SolidQ said:
Would be gladly to see sales between gamers and AI guys/companies, but there no stats

AI guys also playing a game - "get rich quick!", so that's 100% gamers market.

Win2012R2 · Dec 28, 2024

igor_kavinski said:
Big bundle of thanks should also go to Raja Koduri, for sabotaging the GPU efforts of the only other two x86 GPU competitors, with his incompetence.

He joined Jim Keller's crew at Tenstorrent now, and I had such hopes for that company...

Win2012R2 · Dec 28, 2024

basix said:
But from objective technical standpoints I do not see any reason, why a 5060 Ti 16GB should be a bad product or should age badly.

Happy New Year Mr Jensen! Can I have my 5090 FE now?

igor_kavinski · Dec 28, 2024

Win2012R2 said:
He joined Jim Keller's crew at Tenstorrent now, and I had such hopes for that company...

Hopefully he won't be able to meddle in anything there. I think he's just on the board.

Win2012R2 · Dec 28, 2024

igor_kavinski said:
I think he's just on the board

He might be on board, but that's expected in a small company, Raja is a hands on guy, he isn't one of the paid "names" just to collect money for one a quarter board meetings.

IMHO Tenstorrent probably missed the boat anyway

Josh128 · Dec 28, 2024

Get your wallets ready boys, 5000 series is going to be Turing all over again, Im going to throw out the following predictions. Some aspects might be better, might be worse.

Same(ish) process
25% more perf
25% larger die
25% more power consumption
25% higher price.

Huang has you covered.

Ranulf · Dec 28, 2024

basix said:
For e.g. 399$ it will be miles better than a 4060 Ti 8GB at the same 399$ price tag. Saying anything different is only for flame wars, because I would say the very same if it would be an AMD or Intel card with the same technical characteristics.

Being miles better than a 4060ti isn't much of an accomplishment considering it is a 128bit card barely faster than its predecessor. No matter the chip maker, a $400 12GB is very suspect at this stage for 1440p and even 1080p long term. We've had decent 1080/1440 cards with 12GB at $300 or so for over a year. New games are pushing the vram more and more especially if they aren't well optimized.

Thunder 57 · Dec 28, 2024

SolidQ said:
Maybe placeholder prices

Idiotic shocked face for youtube video successful.

basix said:
I do not shill for Nvidia nor any other company. But from objective technical standpoints I do not see any reason, why a 5060 Ti 16GB should be a bad product or should age badly. So please explain it here to us, I'm curious for your arguments.
Too high consumer prices is another business and not part of this particular discussion, because the card won't age differently when prices change.

A 5060 Ti 12GB won't be a bad card either. It might run earlier into VRAM issues, but it is still a decent 1440p card and very nice for 1080p if priced adequately. For e.g. 399$ it will be miles better than a 4060 Ti 8GB at the same 399$ price tag. Saying anything different is only for flame wars, because I would say the very same if it would be an AMD or Intel card with the same technical characteristics. Sure, 16GB are better than 12GB. But 12GB are far better than 8GB. And the 12GB version will cost less and typically have a better price/performance ratio than the 16GB version, if VRAM is not the issue (which it will not in most cases). So you can choose: Typically better price/performance ratio with the 12GB version but at some point in the future earlier obsolescence due to overfilled VRAM (depending on your screen resolution). Or if you want to play safe on VRAM take the 16GB version.

But go on, you could convince me now with some constructive points and arguments besides of denouncing me as a Nvidia shill. So please go ahead.

The price alone will likely make it a hard sale. I'm not sure it will be a great improvment since the updated node is very minor this time compared to Samsung 8 to TSMC 4N. Of course we will need to wait for reviews.

The mythical 5060 Ti 12GB at $399 is what we sould be getting. Instead Nvidia is happy to sell us 8GB garbage again. It seems your whole argument is based on this imaginary 5060 Ti 12GB card at $399. No such thing exists! A 5060 Ti 12GB with a 192 bit bus at $400 would be a nice card most likely. Instead we are getting a 5060 Ti 8GB. The 16GB version will likely be $499 again.

It's going to be the same crap but new generation. A 5060 Ti 16GB that has nice memory but will age because of lack of GPU power, or a 5070 12GB that will perform well but once that 12GB barrier is broken will become a slideshow.

igor_kavinski · Dec 29, 2024

Very, very small hope that we get 5050 10GB for $250 that beats the 4060 8GB in VRAM intensive scenarios mostly.

xnery007 · Dec 29, 2024

I think the whole 8GB 5060 situation boils down to unfortunate timing. Nvidia was likely banking on Samsung launching production of their new 24Gb (3GB) GDDR7 modules by Q4 2024. However, that hasn't happened, with production now slated for 2025. It's also naive to think Nvidia would ditch the cost-effective 128-bit bus just to accommodate more memory.

It seems the 5070 Ti will be the most interesting card, with 16GB VRAM and hopefully a reasonable price. A refresh with SUPER variants next year (early 2026?) could fix the underwhelming 5070 and 5060 using the 3GB modules. Potentially a 5070 SUPER with 18GB VRAM on a 192-bit bus and a 5060 SUPER with 12GB VRAM on a 128-bit bus.

Win2012R2 · Dec 29, 2024

Josh128 said:
Get your wallets ready boys, 5000 series is going to be Turing all over again

5090 shapes out a lot quicker than 4090 compared to 2080 TI vs 1080 TI - it's going to be hot though for sure, hence January release - will save a fortune on heating: the more you play the more you save...

basix · Dec 29, 2024

Ranulf said:
Being miles better than a 4060ti isn't much of an accomplishment considering it is a 128bit card barely faster than its predecessor. No matter the chip maker, a $400 12GB is very suspect at this stage for 1440p and even 1080p long term. We've had decent 1080/1440 cards with 12GB at $300 or so for over a year. New games are pushing the vram more and more especially if they aren't well optimized.

Fully agree that it is easy to beat the 4060 Ti 8GB. And I already mentioned, that 12GB could run into VRAM issues a little bit earlier. But what do you expect from Nvidia? Selling such a card for $300? Will not happen. My main point is, that a 5060 Ti 12GB would remove the biggest deficiency of its predecessor. 16GB is overkill for now but could get handy in the future. I would assume, that 12GB is enough for 1080p also for the next 4 years or so. If you are playing at 1440p it will probably get tight, at least if you are playing in native resolution. But for example UE5 as widely used game engine is very efficient regarding VRAM usage. You just need to dial down from Epic to Very High settings, which makes a huge difference regarding memory usage. But the quality difference is not that big. People who buy $300...400 cards should hopefully be able to adjust quality settings. If you are not able to do this, well, then pay more money for the 16GB variant.

When I interpret your $300 12GB card correctly you mean 6700XT/6750XT, right? Yeah, these cards provided great value. And a 5060 Ti 12GB for $400 won't provide a very substantial perf/price ratio uplift, that is true. But "it's the Nvidia way", I cannot change that. At least you would get better power efficiency and also a decent feature upgrade compared to RDNA2 (faster RT and DLSS is cool, although FSR4 will hopefully close the gap). But anyways, if you are looking for best bang for the buck you should probably look at RDNA4 cards, not Blackwell.

Jan Olšan · Dec 29, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
This.
There's quite literally no comp.

There is, but people don't buy it. The real problem that's harming the market is the brand power. Nvidia gets their sales basically automatically so they are able to leech all the profits not allowing any competition to do well (and depriving them of any significant marketshare). It's probably worse situation than Apple as that company only has this slaver grip on a minority of the markets they are in and they are not able to really stifle the other computer or phone makers.

igor_kavinski said:
Big bundle of thanks should also go to Raja Koduri, for sabotaging the GPU efforts of the only other two x86 GPU competitors, with his incompetence.

You can't blame competitor's mistakes or lack of success for a another company's decision. Particularly when that company is in a dominant position and dominant companies can and will use various pressures and meddling to ensure the competing product is less successful than it could have been.

Basically, the way GPU market works is that AMD always gets less sales than the product's merits would technically deserve, Nvidia always more (let's put Intel aside for now, but I expect that Arc Battlemage will also show this and sell less than it's merits warrant).
When it works like this, you simply don't have healthy competitive market that would sustain the continuing competition, and to a big surprise, you don't get to enjoy the benefits that market competitive pressure should give you.

Ranulf · Dec 29, 2024

basix said:
But "it's the Nvidia way", I cannot change that.

Eh, you can by not buying their cards as they gain worse and worse value or price/perf every generation.

Grooveriding · Dec 29, 2024

I will probably get a 5090, it’s going to be a lot in Canada bucks though. I figure $3K. The 4090 was $2300 here at launch.

At least we won’t have to deal with tariffs like in the US, if the cards are imported directly here, rather than through the US.

jpiniero · Dec 29, 2024

Ranulf said:
Eh, you can by not buying their cards as they gain worse and worse value or price/perf every generation.

Oh the price/perf isn't getting worse. It's just not getting better by much.

Ironically higher prices will make it easier for AMD to stay in, assuming they can get people to actually buy the cards at MSRP and not Fire Sale prices.

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