Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

DisEnchantment · Mar 23, 2022

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.

Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

Abwx · Jan 16, 2025

adroc_thurston said:
Anecdotal stuff compared to JPR data.

JPR is OEMs only, and still, not all of them, something like 4-5, rest is estimated, according to JPR own numbers only 30% of DTs have a dGPU, and given that there s at most 70M DTs sold by OEMs this make no more than 20M DT dGPUs absorbed by the OEMs.

Do the maths rather than relying on urban legends or on numbers that you didnt analyse, most DT dGPUs are sold in the DIY market.

adroc_thurston · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
JPR is OEMs only,

nope, they do channel checks all the time.

Abwx said:
according to JPR own numbers only 30% of DTs have a dGPU, and given that there s at most 70M DTs sold by OEMs this make no more than 20M DT dGPUs absorbed by the OEMs.

yes I know the attach rate and how the market works. thanks.

Abwx said:
Do the maths rather than relying on urban legends or on numbers that you didnt analyse, most DT dGPUs are sold in the DIY market.

yeah where AMD exists to make geforce cheaper. next.

Tup3x · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
We re not talking OEMs or urban legends, in the DIY market they do substancial sales.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878582444049289689

It should be pretty obvious that this isn't even close to reality. Mindfactory sales data hardly reflects reality. It's an outlier.

Abwx · Jan 16, 2025

Tup3x said:
It should be pretty obvious that this isn't even close to reality. Mindfactory sales data hardly reflects reality. It's an outlier.

Your "pretty obvious" is actualy contrary to the reality.

They would be an outlier if they were the cheapest only for AMD gear, but it happen that they re also the cheapest for Intel and Nvidia, so unless germans prefer to pay more for those two brands than at Mindfactory you can be sure that it s the same in other german shops.

Keller_TT · Jan 16, 2025

adroc_thurston said:
what demand lmao.
People do NOT buy AMD GPUs. That's the rule. Radeon exists to force geforce pricecuts.

Won't be the case if they have the overall better product at good price, including fixing their software support for consumer Radeon.
AMD cheapskates there when RTX offers much more, and AMD locks it all away for rebadged workstation GPUs with more ECC VRAM and 3x the asking price.

NV catches them young - kids, students doing fanciful creative stuff. AMD is boringly corporate there, and their only big win is the console space.

Keller_TT · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
They would be an outlier if they were the cheapest only for AMD gear, but it happen that they re also the cheapest for Intel and Nvidia, so unless germans prefer to pay more for those two brands than at Mindfactory you can be sure that it s the same in other german shops.

People in this part of the world just go to a popular retailer in/near the neighborhood and buy it physically more than online. Swiss prices tend to mirror the USD (only now CHF has strengthened a bit more), but German prices have higher VAT on top of Euro pricing making them much more expensive, and so discounts matter.

Now, it has gotten worse because of Euro's falling rate. 1 Euro was like 1.2-1.25 USD in 2020, but now USD is the stronger one.

adroc_thurston · Jan 16, 2025

Keller_TT said:
Won't be the case if they have the overall better product at good price, including fixing their software support for consumer Radeon.

Of course it would be, ATi had a better product at a good price about a billion times and the best they got was like 52% mss.

Keller_TT said:
AMD cheapskates there when RTX offers much more, and AMD locks it all away for rebadged workstation GPUs with more ECC VRAM and 3x the asking price.

pay up. Lisa's company.

Keller_TT said:
NV catches them young - kids, students doing fanciful creative stuff

irrelevant.

Keller_TT · Jan 16, 2025

adroc_thurston said:
pay up. Lisa's company.

lol. It's also my company in some micro way because I've pretty chunky investments into the stock

adroc_thurston said:
Of course it would be, ATi had a better product at a good price about a billion times and the best they got was like 52% mss.

this is why I only ever bought ATi, and because they were this nondescript Canadian company based out of nowhere doing impressive stuff taking on Silicon Valley's might and I liked it from my little country
NV's marketing budget and sponsorship for gaming events and Universities across the world was and is unmatched. ATi did well despite that.

Tup3x · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
Your "pretty obvious" is actualy contrary to the reality.

They would be an outlier if they were the cheapest only for AMD gear, but it happen that they re also the cheapest for Intel and Nvidia, so unless germans prefer to pay more for those two brands than at Mindfactory you can be sure that it s the same in other german shops.

It's maybe reality in Mindfactory but that's it. If you really think that's the case in most shops all over the world, I don't know what to say really.

SolidQ · Jan 16, 2025

Interesting, Maybe AMD can make 9070XT with 32GB for them?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1879034330284192050

JustViewing · Jan 16, 2025

SolidQ said:
Interesting, Maybe AMD can make 9070XT with 32GB for them?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1879034330284192050

Any idea on the labels?

poke01 · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
Your "pretty obvious" is actualy contrary to the reality.

They would be an outlier if they were the cheapest only for AMD gear, but it happen that they re also the cheapest for Intel and Nvidia, so unless germans prefer to pay more for those two brands than at Mindfactory you can be sure that it s the same in other german shops.

Wait till you hear, there are more countries than Germany

coercitiv · Jan 16, 2025

JustViewing said:
Any idea on the labels?

Who needs labels when it's green box versus red box, and the red box is winning by 80% of the graph height thanks to a special driver from the company that insists on using red hardware while dissing it at every corner.

coercitiv · Jan 16, 2025

At this rate, the only thing AMD will be able to launch by the time they make up their mind will be... the freaking drivers!

AMD Radeon RX 9070 XT & RX 9070 Custom Models In Stock at European Stores

AMD's board partners flaunted their new Radeon RX 9070 XT and RX 9070 custom models at last week's CES trade event, but no one expected to see retail units pop up anytime soon after the concluded Las Vegas showcase. Earlier today, a brave soul uploaded compelling new evidence on Team Red's...

www.techpowerup.com

MrTeal · Jan 16, 2025

Abwx said:
Your "pretty obvious" is actualy contrary to the reality.

They would be an outlier if they were the cheapest only for AMD gear, but it happen that they re also the cheapest for Intel and Nvidia, so unless germans prefer to pay more for those two brands than at Mindfactory you can be sure that it s the same in other german shops.

AMD's last quarter revenue from their gaming division was $462M, and that includes semi-custom revenue from PS5 and XBbox sales.
Nvidia's gaming revenue last quarter was $3.3B.

Mindfactory might sell more AMD GPUs than Nvidia, but unless Lisa is keeping revenue off the books to buy a mega-yacht every month there is no way AMD's GPU sales are even in spitting distance of Nvidia.

eek2121 · Jan 16, 2025

MrTeal said:
AMD's last quarter revenue from their gaming division was $462M, and that includes semi-custom revenue from PS5 and XBbox sales.
Nvidia's gaming revenue last quarter was $3.3B.

Mindfactory might sell more AMD GPUs than Nvidia, but unless Lisa is keeping revenue off the books to buy a mega-yacht every month there is no way AMD's GPU sales are even in spitting distance of Nvidia.

Don’t forget: NVIDIA also has 2 consoles, the switch and the switch 2. PS5/Xbox sales are winding down, while Switch 2 production is likely ramping up. NVIDIA also has higher revenue SKUs like the 4090 (and soon, 5090) and some other stuff going on.

NVIDIA can get away with selling a $1,600-$2,000 card where AMD’s price ceiling is half that at most, and likely most of the product they sell sells for a third of that. With how margins are added on, AMD makes substantially less money for the same amount of units sold.

I am not disagreeing with anything you are saying, just that the numbers aren’t an apples to apples. There is no doubt in my mind NVIDIA sells more units than AMD.

Josh128 · Jan 16, 2025

adroc_thurston said:
You sure?

Compared to the same die running at 2700-2800MHz? Absolutely.

SolidQ · Jan 16, 2025

eek2121 said:
PS5/Xbox sales are winding down

GTA6 will fix it!

Glo. · Jan 16, 2025

coercitiv said:
Who needs labels when it's green box versus red box, and the red box is winning by 80% of the graph height thanks to a special driver from the company that insists on using red hardware while dissing it at every corner.

Its funny because it says that it was their software that was rubbish all along, not AMD hardware/software.

Win2012R2 · Jan 16, 2025

SolidQ said:
GTA6 will fix it!

People will buy PS5 Pro for it

Win2012R2 · Jan 16, 2025

eek2121 said:
NVIDIA can get away with selling a $1,600-$2,000 card where AMD’s price ceiling is half that at most

When AMD makes card that beats Nvidia by 50% then they can sell it too for 1600-2000, and lots of smaller cards with higher margin.

adroc_thurston · Jan 16, 2025

Win2012R2 said:
When AMD makes card that beats Nvidia by 50% then they can sell it too for 1600-2000

They would sell it for 3 kilobuck.

JustViewing · Jan 16, 2025

coercitiv said:
Who needs labels when it's green box versus red box, and the red box is winning by 80% of the graph height thanks to a special driver from the company that insists on using red hardware while dissing it at every corner.

it could be number of seconds in the Y axis

Abwx · Jan 16, 2025

MrTeal said:
AMD's last quarter revenue from their gaming division was $462M, and that includes semi-custom revenue from PS5 and XBbox sales.
Nvidia's gaming revenue last quarter was $3.3B.

Mindfactory might sell more AMD GPUs than Nvidia, but unless Lisa is keeping revenue off the books to buy a mega-yacht every month there is no way AMD's GPU sales are even in spitting distance of Nvidia.

In those 462M there s no semicustom and Xbox chips since they are working on a new gen, both Sony and MSFT are living on their remaining inventories, so we can conclude that this amount to 3M GPUs at 150$ ASP, to compare to JPR s number who state that there s about 8M DT GPUs sold per quarter, and AMD sold almost exclusively DT GPUs.

Mopetar · Jan 16, 2025

gdansk said:
Most probably AMD didn't expect Nvidia would leave a $1000 hole in their lineup.

You have it backwards. NVidia has a $1000 in their lineup because they know AMD doesn't have anything to fit into it.

Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

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