Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q1-2025

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blackangus

Senior member
Aug 5, 2022
224
390
106
What is the reason for this storage of 5000 series GPUs? I keep hearing its not because of fab capacity contention with AI so what is it then?
1. Fake to drive demand?
2. They had to re-spin the whole range really late?
3. ????

What happened?
 

Golgatha

Lifer
Jul 18, 2003
12,356
956
126
What is the reason for this storage of 5000 series GPUs? I keep hearing its not because of fab capacity contention with AI so what is it then?
1. Fake to drive demand?
2. They had to re-spin the whole range really late?
3. ????

What happened?
I think it's to drive future demand. Could be they set aside more GPU cores for professional cards as well. Maybe some combination of both.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
4,013
6,600
136
Nvidia might compete with Apple in valuation and product hype but they do not compete at all when it comes to actually shipping product to consumers.

Nvidia pretty much always messes it up and delivers slowly. This leads many people to suspect it is deliberate. But I'm not sure, it could be simple incompetence.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,727
3,416
136
Was the 4090 ever available in sufficient quantities to keep cards in stock at MSRP? Or did that just never happen?
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,539
1,212
136
Was the 4090 ever available in sufficient quantities to keep cards in stock at MSRP? Or did that just never happen?
Don't know if it's credible:

 

Golgatha

Lifer
Jul 18, 2003
12,356
956
126
Was the 4090 ever available in sufficient quantities to keep cards in stock at MSRP? Or did that just never happen?
My local Micro Center has 4090s and even some open box from time to time for at least a year. The price tracker seems to show the same above. I bought mine in December of 2022 and there was low stock, but they always seemed to have some 4090s in stock as I recall; I ordered mine Online for pickup then anyway.
 
Reactions: Executor_

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,287
7,272
136
What is the reason for this storage of 5000 series GPUs? I keep hearing its not because of fab capacity contention with AI so what is it then?
1. Fake to drive demand?
2. They had to re-spin the whole range really late?
3. ????

What happened?

AI companies will pay $10,000 or more for a big Blackwell die.

Gamers can buy (theoretically) that same die for $2,000.

If you were NVidia and you could allocate dies to customers who will pay $10,000 or to customers who will pay $2,000, who do you give more dies to?

Hint: You used all of the money you made making the same decision when crypto companies wanted more cards a few years ago to buy a bigger closet and can now store 200% more leather jackets than previously.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
4,013
6,600
136
Data center Blackwell is limited by HBM and packaging. TSMC can produce more than that for Nvidia and GB202 uses simpler, less supply constrained packaging and simpler VRAM. The allocation at TSMC's 4/5nm lines should not be a problem.

And some GB202 variants will be selling for $8000+.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,861
8,941
136
Some pretty scathing words here:

In summary:
**Future actions: Avoid, Return, and Recall**

It is my opinion that any card drawing more than the base 375W per 12VHPWR connector should be avoided. Every single-cable 4090 and 5090 is in that mix, and the 5080 is borderline at 360W.

I would like to see any cards without the minimum protections named above recalled as dangerous and potentially faulty. This will not happen without extensive legal action taken against Nvidia and board partners. They see no problem with this until people make it their problem.

If you even suspect your card may be at risk, return it and get your money back. Spend it on something else. You can do a lot with 2 grand and a bit extra. They do not deserve your money if they are going to sell you a potentially dangerous product lacking arguably critical safety mechanisms. Yes that includes AMD and Intel. That goes for any company to be honest.
 

Det0x

Golden Member
Sep 11, 2014
1,414
4,792
136
I have done initial 3dmark suite, with no "tricks/tweaks", just install driver + OC computer + fans on 100% and run

 

blackangus

Senior member
Aug 5, 2022
224
390
106
AI companies will pay $10,000 or more for a big Blackwell die.

Gamers can buy (theoretically) that same die for $2,000.

If you were NVidia and you could allocate dies to customers who will pay $10,000 or to customers who will pay $2,000, who do you give more dies to?

Hint: You used all of the money you made making the same decision when crypto companies wanted more cards a few years ago to buy a bigger closet and can now store 200% more leather jackets than previously.
What I have read they are not on the same process, so not a process contention issue.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,742
6,248
136
Need to increase production 50% this year.
View attachment 116928
And Samsung stumbled so it isn't happening.


Just because the overall supply of HBM is thin, doesn't mean that NVidia has all the TSMC Datacenter GPU chips they need.

Most of the electronics industry operates on pre-allocating large amounts of chips a long time in advance.

When demand increases NVidia might be struggling to come with extra everything beyond it's initial allocations. An easy source for them on TSMC side, may be shifting some allocation to Datacenter from Consumer GPU chips.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
4,013
6,600
136
How does a chart about demand relate to actual production? I guess I don't understand korean so perhaps I am missing context?
It doesn't relate. But HBM production needs to increase 50% in a single year. It won't. No point to shift more allocation to DC GPU if you can't get enough memory for them. TSMC allegedly has a 100% utilization rate for 5nm lines but more memory per GPU means there is still little point to shift allocation away from GB202/203 for a long period of time. They can sell at still good margins with common VRAM. It might be a problem as Blackwell ramps but over the course of the year the allocation should be fine.
 
Last edited:

Det0x

Golden Member
Sep 11, 2014
1,414
4,792
136
I have done initial 3dmark suite, with no "tricks/tweaks", just install driver + OC computer + fans on 100% and run

Some 5090 Geekbench GPU numbers

GB AI

GB6

GB5

Missing GB4 key so i cant run with fastest CUDA render/library
 
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