I imagine this scenario...
Trump leaves everyone... then the nordics and Germany gets nukes by themselves.
There are nukes and there are NUKES. Nagasaki and Hiroshima were atom bombs. Yes, they are devastating and make areas radioactive and spread radioactivity via fallout and winds. But bigtime NUKES are hydrogen bombs that can reach at least 20 megatons of TNT intensity.
Hydrogen bombs of more than 50 megatons have been detonated, but the explosive power of the weapons mounted on strategic missiles usually ranges from 100 kilotons to 1.5 megatons.Jan 17, 2025
Part of the equation is delivery, so planes or missiles.
Development requires high tech including fissionable material, processing via centrifuges, bomb development, deployment systems development, testing, dispersion often requiring alliances or naval systems support.
It's been a long time since the hydrogen bomb was developed and tested, around 1952. What was a big deal then isn't as big a deal now.
I hear (a lot of in here) that Russia's nuclear arsenal is likely not well maintained at all because of the relative poverty of the nation and depletion of their economic strength since the 3 day war began 3 years ago, also the loss of manpower and the fleeing of intelligentsia and a lot of the populace that has the resources and foresight.
There's a natural deterrence to using nuclear weapons. Any nation who does use a bomb of the strength of those dropped on Japan in 1945 (or greater, of course) is going to become an instant pariah on the world stage in such a way they won't recover for generations.