Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

DisEnchantment · Apr 24, 2020

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.

N7 performance is more or less understood.

This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

TSMC Radically Boosts CapEx to Expand Production Capacities, To Reach $14B For 2019

www.anandtech.com

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

Samsung’s Aggressive EUV Plans: 6nm Production in H2, 5nm & 4nm On Track

www.anandtech.com

Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

Hitman928 · Mar 3, 2025

511 said:
Yeah but they have migrated away from custom tools so their IP as well ?

Got it

I edited my post while you were replying, but from what I've heard, Intel's own 18a products are still designed using Intel's internal tool set. The 3rd party tools and PDK were delayed multiple times and as of late summer/fall time frame last year, customers were still waiting on updates for these.

My guess is that the Intel announcement last week that they are ready for customer tapeouts on 18a was really an announcement that the PDK and external tools were finally good enough to use for production designs, which means that these 3rd party IP suppliers can now start to complete and validate their IP for production on 18a, but that will obviously take time. Only after that happens will the SoC/SiP designers be able to finish their designs and tapeout on 18a. If the reported timeline is accurate, for external customers, 18a goes from being out before TSMC's N2, to being after N2 and being ready at roughly the same time as N2P/A16.

Meteor Late · Mar 3, 2025

511 said:
it would mean between N3E and N2.

So N3P

511 · Mar 3, 2025

Meteor Late said:
So N3P

N3X as well 🙂

511 · Mar 3, 2025

Hitman928 said:
I edited my post while you were replying, but from what I've heard, Intel's own 18a products are still designed using Intel's internal tool set. The 3rd party tools and PDK were delayed multiple times and as of late summer/fall time frame last year, customers were still waiting on updates for these.

My guess is that the Intel announcement last week that they are ready for customer tapeouts on 18a was really an announcement that the PDK and external tools were finally good enough to use for production designs, which means that these 3rd party IP suppliers can now start to complete and validate their IP for production on 18a, but that will obviously take time. Only after that happens will the SoC/SiP designers be able to finish their designs and tapeout on 18a. If the reported timeline is accurate, for external customers, 18a goes from being out before TSMC's N2, to being after N2 and being ready at roughly the same time as N2P/A16.

Thanks you are right on this one if the external customers are delayed with their tape outs why make it on 18A if it doesn't have some advantage but for Intel it doesn't make sense to use anything but 18A vs N2 Products

jdubs03 · Mar 3, 2025

Hitman928 said:
If the reported timeline is accurate, for external customers, 18a goes from being out before TSMC's N2, to being after N2 and being ready at roughly the same time as N2P/A16.

Seems like halfway between N2 and a N2P/A16 in terms of products on the shelves.

jdubs03 · Mar 3, 2025

I’m surprised no one has posted this yet:

TSMC Intends to Expand Its Investment in the United States to US$165 Billion to Power the Future of AI|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

HSINCHU, Taiwan, R.O.C. Mar. 4, 2025 – TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its intention to expand its investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the United

pr.tsmc.com

The expansion includes plans for three new fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities and a major R&D team center, solidifying this project as the largest single foreign direct investment in U.S. history.

Now the crux will be which process nodes will be built. My guess is still N-1, but I’m hoping they’ll relent and go leading edge.

Also more rumors on splitting up Intel:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-divisions-spotlight-tsmc-broadcom-circle-2025-03-03/

controlflow · Mar 3, 2025

jdubs03 said:
Also more rumors on splitting up Intel:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-divisions-spotlight-tsmc-broadcom-circle-2025-03-03/

That is a new article from today but it contains absolutely no new information and it just references the previous rumor published on Feb 15th.

Makes you wonder why Reuters is so insistent on reiterating certain rumors.

jdubs03 · Mar 3, 2025

controlflow said:
That is a new article from today but it contains absolutely no new information and it just references the previous rumor published on Feb 15th.

Makes you wonder why Reuters is so insistent on reiterating certain rumors.

Indeed, only some updated news from the first Reuters article I posted about this morning,

I just threw that in there because it was a recent post. But the TSMC one is far more consequential.

fastandfurious6 · Mar 3, 2025

jdubs03 said:
I’m surprised no one has posted this yet:

TSMC Intends to Expand Its Investment in the United States to US$165 Billion to Power the Future of AI|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

HSINCHU, Taiwan, R.O.C. Mar. 4, 2025 – TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its intention to expand its investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the United

pr.tsmc.com

Now the crux will be which process nodes will be built. My guess is still N-1, but I’m hoping they’ll relent and go leading edge.

the question is, why is TSMC doing this?

why not just build another fab in Taiwan, retain sovereignty and ship chips?

the way things are going it's not unlikely Uncle Sam could seize control of the american fabs, in a similar way they're seizing control of tiktok - first forced to host in Oracle cloud (uncle sam's servers) then total control by american entity

jdubs03 · Mar 3, 2025

fastandfurious6 said:
the question is, why is TSMC doing this?

why not just build another fab in Taiwan, retain sovereignty and ship chips?

the way things are going it's not unlikely Uncle Sam could seize control of the american fabs, in a similar way they're seizing control of tiktok - first forced to host in Oracle cloud (uncle sam's servers) then total control by american entity

In all likelihood it’s because they want to avoid 25%+ tariffs.
And also likely a hedge against a potential invasion by China.

511 · Mar 3, 2025

jdubs03 said:
In all likelihood it’s because they want to avoid 25%+ tariffs.
And also likely a hedge against a potential invasion by China.

Well Tariffs are not implemented and we don't know who will pay the tariffs TSMC or the customer that is buying those chips

igor_kavinski · Mar 3, 2025

511 said:
who will pay the tariffs TSMC or the customer that is buying those chips

No matter who pays the tariffs, it will make cutting edge silicon more expensive and customers will look for other ways to fab their silicon more economically. TSMC just trying to ensure that their US fabs end up winning such cost saving contracts. Imagine the 9700X or 9800X3D getting 25% more expensive. At that price, Intel's cheaper CPUs though with lower performance, may make more economic sense for the average user.

511 · Mar 3, 2025

this reminds me doesn't TSMC charge way more for US Wafer ?

fastandfurious6 · Mar 4, 2025

chips are way more expensive to make in USA. everythings more expensive in USA

bad move for TSMC, good for America and China

but TSMC still have 100% business as long as they keep R&D lead

very simple, keep R&D lead, be #1

511 · Mar 4, 2025

It's been that way all along whoever has the best tech dominates.
Fabs are a natural Monopoly

DavidC1 · Mar 4, 2025

511 said:
Earthquakes are a more serious issues than war tbf they just lost nearly 60K wafers of N5/3 combined last earthquake

That makes no sense.

A next World War is going to go nuclear. There is no conceivable way that will be less impactful than a random Earthquake.

Earthquakes happen unexpectedly and is thus accepted as part of life. WW3 would result in many delusions being popped like there's no tomorrow, such as those that believe nukes don't exist, and that it'll never be used. That'll result in crash of confidence(hope for future) drop, and people will completely reprioritize what is real important, which is NOT computers and internet.

Sales will plummet, and not in the Youtube-esque way of calling 10% drops as "plummet" but 80-90%.

adamge · Mar 4, 2025

fastandfurious6 said:
but TSMC still have 100% business as long as they keep R&D lead

very simple, keep R&D lead and have enough capacity to supply everyone, be #1

Fixed it for you

OneEng2 · Mar 4, 2025

jdubs03 said:
In all likelihood it’s because they want to avoid 25%+ tariffs.
And also likely a hedge against a potential invasion by China.

I agree.

511 said:
Well Tariffs are not implemented and we don't know who will pay the tariffs TSMC or the customer that is buying those chips

The consumer always pays for tariffs.

If I build a product with a chip in it from TSMC and importing the chip to make the product costs me 25% more, then that additional cost goes to the customer. Nearly all companies operate in a profit margin much less than 25% for consumer goods (after overhead and COGS). Fully landed costs are all that product makers care about. Sales price is only part of that.

DavidC1 · Mar 4, 2025

I'm a little bit surprised that Intel didn't get a mention at all for investing by the US government. If that continues, it really doesn't matter if 18A or 14A gets future customers.

This sounds like a nail in the coffin moment for the company. Their only chance now is to perfectly execute whatever plans they have, because it seems they are on their own.

Doug S · Mar 4, 2025

511 said:
Well Tariffs are not implemented and we don't know who will pay the tariffs TSMC or the customer that is buying those chips

The importer pays, so of course the customer who is buying the chips will pay it.

In a competitive market then the exporter might lower their prices and effectively "eat" some of the tariff. For example, if you had a foreign company selling gizmos for $100 each and there were domestic suppliers who sold them for $110 each then if they had a 25% tariff slapped on they might be forced to lower their prices somewhat so their prices wouldn't be higher than domestic suppliers. But that's ONLY true if there is enough domestic supply. If domestic suppliers can supply only 50% of the market then the foreign company won't lower its prices at all and the buyers of those foreign gizmos will pay 25% more.

That won't be the situation with TSMC. They are pretty much fully utilized and have no incentive to lower prices if stuff coming from Taiwan is tariffed. Their customers will pay that cost. They might want to have their stuff produced in the US to avoid those tariffs, but they can only do that if there is capacity available AND the process they want is available. TSMC won't have their leading edge process in the US (from what I've read there's actually a law in Taiwan, it isn't just TSMC policy) so e.g. Apple and Nvidia will have no choice but to eat any tariffs if they want N3E today, or they want N2 when it comes out. They'll only be able to save on tariff costs for older model products that don't use the latest process.

igor_kavinski · Mar 4, 2025

TSMC might be doing this deal as a deterrent to any geopolitical disaster. Let's say worst comes to worst.

By the time that happens, TSMC figures they have at least one leading edge fab in the US so they have no problem destroying anything of value in Taiwan. Maybe part of the deal is that the best TSMC researchers, scientists and engineers can be transferred to the US overnight as soon as signs of a worsening geopolitical situation appear. So now the invader not only loses the equipment but also the people to build that stuff back up.

The invader "enjoys" being the dictator in their extended province without any economic profit. So with these precautions in place, would it be worth the gargantuan cost of an invasion with almost nothing to gain in return? Maybe they end up deciding it would be useless in practice and that might exactly be the strategy here.

QuickyDuck · Mar 4, 2025

Most likely to force competitor out or to derisk potential competition. Forget about geopolitical disaster or natural disaster, they are too far in.

R.I.P. intel

Markfw · Mar 4, 2025

Wasn't it true a few years ago, that Intel was the largest chip producer in the world ? If so, even though they may not have all the high tech nodes, and are losing to AMD in % market share, that means that with some work, their existing fabs can be upgraded and they could come back as just a chip producer and AMD and maybe a split off Intel CPU division could still be working on being competitors. But this scenario would take years before Intel fab division/company would be competitive with TSMC.

jdubs03 · Mar 4, 2025

It’s already been established that products on 18A will be available Q4 this year, yes these will be internal designs; and external designed chips are ~6 months later, but they’re competitive with N3P at a minimum. So, it’s not like they’re in a technological deficit anymore. They’re each in the ballpark of each other. That’s on the leading edge.

I don’t think Apple or Qualcomm are going to want to use older processors nodes on their most advanced designs, even if they come from a plant in Arizona.

It’s hyperbolic to say RIP. Yes Intel needs to execute; particularly on external customers (meaning no further delays into 2027). But it’s not all lost.

Edit: spotted this..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1897112371753296086

511 · Mar 4, 2025

Markfw said:
Wasn't it true a few years ago, that Intel was the largest chip producer in the world ? If so, even though they may not have all the high tech nodes, and are losing to AMD in % market share, that means that with some work, their existing fabs can be upgraded and they could come back as just a chip producer and AMD and maybe a split off Intel CPU division could still be working on being competitors. But this scenario would take years before Intel fab division/company would be competitive with TSMC.

Intel fab division is already competitive in terms of technology they don't have the money though.

They are ahead in couple if things like glass substrate also high na if it pans out will put them in front and not forget Intel has it's own EUV Mask shop which TSMC Uses as well.

They are behind in few things as well Hybrid Bonding (Sony is the market leader btw I never would have guessed.), their PDKs and IPs for external.

Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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