Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,889
42,686
136
What exactly are you seeing that is giving you that impression?

After hearing the President of Finland talk at the EU conference this last weekend I got the exact opposite impression.

Yeah the Euros don't snap their fingers and have stuff happen. Right now they are working through the fiscal maneuvering required to boost defense spending and aid to Ukraine by a huge amount. Either through EU mechanisms or willing nations if somebody like Orban objects. They have a summit this week to adopt decisions.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,889
42,686
136
The sheer scale of Rs going on TV to whine endlessly that Zelensky was rude is truly something to behold. Apparently being "strong" just means complaining a lot when you've fucked something up and everybody saw you do it.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,859
8,964
136
I hope one day Trump's close relationship with Putin will be exposed for what appears to be already known, just not verified yet.
Someday Agent Krasnov will be exposed?
Hrrmm.....

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/19/trump-first-moscow-trip-215842/
In 1987, a young real estate developer traveled to the Soviet Union. The KGB almost certainly made the trip happen.
  • As Trump tells it, the idea for his first trip to Moscow came after he found himself seated next to the Soviet ambassador Yuri Dubinin.
  • The ambassador—“fluent in English and a brilliant master of negotiations”—charmed the busy Trump, telling him: “The first thing I saw in the city is your tower!”
  • Dubinina said: “Trump melted at once. He is an emotional person, somewhat impulsive. He needs recognition. And, of course, when he gets it he likes it. My father’s visit worked on him [Trump] like honey to a bee.”
  • Trump continued: “One thing led to another, and now I’m talking about building a large luxury hotel, across the street from the Kremlin, in partnership with the Soviet government.”
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
39,691
9,516
136
The sheer scale of Rs going on TV to whine endlessly that Zelensky was rude is truly something to behold. Apparently being "strong" just means complaining a lot when you've fucked something up and everybody saw you do it.
I think this quotation explains this phenomenon pretty well:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
 

Racan

Golden Member
Sep 22, 2012
1,230
2,258
136
What exactly are you seeing that is giving you that impression?

After hearing the President of Finland talk at the EU conference this last weekend I got the exact opposite impression.

I was reacting to this NYT article. My interpretation is that they're still pinning their hopes on Trump doing a 180 and providing strong security guarantees for their plan to work. The most I see Trump ever doing is selling weapons and ammunition.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
39,691
9,516
136
Someday Agent Krasnov will be exposed?
Hrrmm.....

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/19/trump-first-moscow-trip-215842/
In 1987, a young real estate developer traveled to the Soviet Union. The KGB almost certainly made the trip happen.
  • As Trump tells it, the idea for his first trip to Moscow came after he found himself seated next to the Soviet ambassador Yuri Dubinin.
  • The ambassador—“fluent in English and a brilliant master of negotiations”—charmed the busy Trump, telling him: “The first thing I saw in the city is your tower!”
  • Dubinina said: “Trump melted at once. He is an emotional person, somewhat impulsive. He needs recognition. And, of course, when he gets it he likes it. My father’s visit worked on him [Trump] like honey to a bee.”
  • Trump continued: “One thing led to another, and now I’m talking about building a large luxury hotel, across the street from the Kremlin, in partnership with the Soviet government.”
  • Dubinina said: “Trump melted at once. He is an emotional person, somewhat impulsive. He needs recognition. And, of course, when he gets it he likes it. My father’s visit worked on him [Trump] like honey to a bee.”
Trump told the story in The Art of the Deal IIRC about the first time he saw his name in a newspaper. He got goosebumps, it totally made his day. The seeds of a scoundrel were planted.

The fact is, Trump will never get the recognition he craves and it continues to rankle him and will to his death. The people of New York (in particular the ones he wishes would honor him and welcome his company) dislike him and always will. That is beyond irreparable now. And, of course, that goes way beyond New York. In truth, nobody who has a real sense of who he is reveres him.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,889
42,686
136
The bold portion is the key to Trump. The asshole wouldn't throw a bucket of water on a burning man unless the man first agreed to turn over his life savings and two daughters.

So far Trump has not interfered in weapons sales and I sort of doubt he's inclined, even if they end up in Ukraine. As a stopgap the Europeans will probably need to step up purchases from the US while further expanding their own production capacity. Trump is not going to approve further aid to Ukraine...that much I'm pretty sure about.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,021
2,315
136

I was reacting to this NYT article. My interpretation is that they're still pinning their hopes on Trump doing a 180 and providing strong security guarantees for their plan to work. The most I see Trump ever doing is selling weapons and ammunition.

Did we read the same article?

“Starmer has two goals,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “Build an offer with the Ukrainians and Europeans that keeps the U.S. positively engaged in Ukraine’s security, while simultaneously preparing for a worst-case scenario where that may not prove possible.”
That will require European countries to shoulder a much heavier burden in the continent’s defense. Mr. Starmer pushed leaders to follow Britain in bolstering its military spending. Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, said several countries had pledged to do so, though he declined to name them.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,889
42,686
136
Meanwhile Merz is out there like "Shit's fucked. It was an ambush. We need to do it ourselves."

Starmer is the most logical person to try to fix the breach even though the Euros think it is probably unfixable.
 
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Racan

Golden Member
Sep 22, 2012
1,230
2,258
136
Did we read the same article?

“Starmer has two goals,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “Build an offer with the Ukrainians and Europeans that keeps the U.S. positively engaged in Ukraine’s security, while simultaneously preparing for a worst-case scenario where that may not prove possible.”
That will require European countries to shoulder a much heavier burden in the continent’s defense. Mr. Starmer pushed leaders to follow Britain in bolstering its military spending. Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, said several countries had pledged to do so, though he declined to name them.
I really, really hope that they operate under the assumption that the worst-case scenario is the most likely outcome.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,021
2,315
136
I really, really hope that they operate under the assumption that the worst-case scenario is the most likely outcome.

Multiple countries in the EU are planning on exactly this worse-case scenario.

The problem for Europe is that for Decades the US has tried to squelch any effort by the Allied European governments to create a military group separate from NATO. The US historically for NATO was a enabler, they would bring the space assets, airlift capability etc. Basically the glue that holds a military force together because the US didn't want Europe conducting military operations themselves. You talk about "big boy pants for Europe" but for decades the US made sure that Europe didn't put on the "big boy pants". The EU isn't a military organization. The US actions have up-ended decades of precedent in that the US would participate in any European operation and it would be NATO lead. Now Europe is looking to enable a military operation outside of NATO with no active US support. This type of change doesn't happen overnight.
 

cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
Multiple countries in the EU are planning on exactly this worse-case scenario.

The problem for Europe is that for Decades the US has tried to squelch any effort by the Allied European governments to create a military group separate from NATO. The US historically for NATO was a enabler, they would bring the space assets, airlift capability etc. Basically the glue that holds a military force together because the US didn't want Europe conducting military operations themselves. You talk about "big boy pants for Europe" but for decades the US made sure that Europe didn't put on the "big boy pants". The EU isn't a military organization. The US actions have up-ended decades of precedent in that the US would participate in any European operation and it would be NATO lead. Now Europe is looking to enable a military operation outside of NATO with no active US support. This type of change doesn't happen overnight.
They should have been planning on a worst case scenario 3 years ago. Today they're worried they couldn't maintain 30k troops in Ukraine even if a ceasefire was signed and they were allowed in.

It's the US's fault that they don't spend enough on their militaries? Yes the EU isn't a military organization but that doesn't prevent the need for a military. Trump told them the same thing in his last term, that they weren't spending enough but this is all the US's fault?

That's plain BS. They decided they didn't need a military after the fall of the USSR. Because before then they most definitely had sizeable military forces even if I'd agree the US still provided a lot of the logistics for NATO.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,021
2,315
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They should have been planning on a worst case scenario 3 years ago. Today they're worried they couldn't maintain 30k troops in Ukraine even if a ceasefire was signed and they were allowed in.

It's the US's fault that they don't spend enough on their militaries? Yes the EU isn't a military organization but that doesn't prevent the need for a military. Trump told them the same thing in his last term, that they weren't spending enough but this is all the US's fault?

That's plain BS. They decided they didn't need a military after the fall of the USSR. Because before then they most definitely had sizeable military forces even if I'd agree the US still provided a lot of the logistics for NATO.

Should Europe have been planning on that the US would switch to Russia's side as worse case scenario?

Can you define what spending "enough" on Defense looks like?

How much do Nato members spend on defence?
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
14,474
9,322
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Did we read the same article?

“Starmer has two goals,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. “Build an offer with the Ukrainians and Europeans that keeps the U.S. positively engaged in Ukraine’s security, while simultaneously preparing for a worst-case scenario where that may not prove possible.”
That will require European countries to shoulder a much heavier burden in the continent’s defense. Mr. Starmer pushed leaders to follow Britain in bolstering its military spending. Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, said several countries had pledged to do so, though he declined to name them.

I don't know what Starmer, and the rest of Europe (who are probably not all on the same page, as each other or as Starmer) are now thinking. But his comment that "I do not accept that the U.S. is an unreliable ally" suggests to me that reality has not fully sunk in.

 
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Dec 10, 2005
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I don't know what Starmer, and the rest of Europe (who are probably not all on the same page, as each other or as Starmer) are now thinking. But his comment that "I do not accept that the U.S. is an unreliable ally" suggests to me that reality has not fully sunk in.

Or it's just public posturing while they make other preparations.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,889
42,686
136
When a Presidents approvals drop they drop on all their issues too when you ask people if they are happy with how they are being handled.

See also: Trump about two months from now.
 
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cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
Should Europe have been planning on that the US would switch to Russia's side as worse case scenario?

Can you define what spending "enough" on Defense looks like?

How much do Nato members spend on defence?
I'm not going to defend the US's actions, but I don't see us going to war with Europe tomorrow so you can end with the hyperbole. I don't think they should be expecting us to do the heavy lifting every single time. Europe has a combined GDP nearly the same as the US but yet can barely support 30k troops outside their own borders. I can find article after article mentioning the state of disrepair most European armies are in. You're only supporting my idea that they expected the US to do it all if they're completely incapable on their own.
.

Your table doesn't show what you think it does. Germany is the largest single country and up until recently was spending far less than the recommended 2%. The only one's who were doing more than the 2% were mainly the small Baltic states and Poland, who all actually have taken it seriously but they're a small fraction in size unfortunately. But to answer your question at the very least the recommended 2%. But you also can't make up two decades of defense cuts by just now barely spending what they should have been the entire time. Combine that with how many of them had been giving what reserves of equipment they had to Ukraine and it only makes the problem worse. Trump told them 5 years before that and they didn't bother to do anything in most cases. You'd have thought Ukraine being invaded would have been a wake up call but they're only just now starting to take it seriously? Do you think the recommended minimum that is more geared towards peacetime to be enough in the climate of the past 3 years?

To be fair the US is finally realizing you have to have the munition and equipment reserves you need for a war today because there won't be time to build them in a modern war. Maybe Europe is going to as well.
 
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