Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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APU_Fusion

Golden Member
Dec 16, 2013
1,629
2,405
136
I see grasshopper hasn’t been defenestrated. don’t think Trump being a Russian asset and ambushing Zelenskyy will be the Russian victory he thinks it is. May Russia and Putin get back ten fold the suffering they inflicted.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,025
2,319
136
I'm not going to defend the US's actions, but I don't see us going to war with Europe tomorrow so you can end with the hyperbole. I don't think they should be expecting us to do the heavy lifting every single time. Europe has a combined GDP nearly the same as the US but yet can barely support 30k troops outside their own borders. I can find article after article mentioning the state of disrepair most European armies are in. You're only supporting my idea that they expected the US to do it all if they're completely incapable on their own.
.

Your table doesn't show what you think it does. Germany is the largest single country and up until recently was spending far less than the recommended 2%. The only one's who were doing more than the 2% were mainly the small Baltic states and Poland, who all actually have taken it seriously but they're a small fraction in size unfortunately. But to answer your question at the very least the recommended 2%. But you also can't make up two decades of defense cuts by just now barely spending what they should have been the entire time. Combine that with how many of them had been giving what reserves of equipment they had to Ukraine and it only makes the problem worse. Trump told them 5 years before that and they didn't bother to do anything in most cases. You'd have thought Ukraine being invaded would have been a wake up call but they're only just now starting to take it seriously? Do you think the recommended minimum that is more geared towards peacetime to be enough in the climate of the past 3 years?

To be fair the US is finally realizing you have to have the munition and equipment reserves you need for a war today because there won't be time to build them in a modern war. Maybe Europe is going to as well.

Europe doesn't have the capability to deploy a decent size expeditionary force. The US has spent decades fully integrated into the European force structure. For example when US invoked article 5 during the war on terror. NATO countries that deployed troops overseas leaned heavily on US logistics support for those troops deployment to help defend US interests in the Middle East. Kind of interesting that the US was the only NATO country to invoke Article 5 but now wants to walk away from European security interests start become pressing.

What the table shows is a lot of countries have increased defense spending the last several years. Plus two recent entries into NATO, Sweden and Finland both bring considerable military capability. Finland has been preparing for decades for the Russians to come back. Also Europe heavily depends on US arms manufacturers and the US actively encouraged this even Trump and a lot of military contracts are backlogged on orders. Some European countries have been slower than others but overall a lot of the East European countries have been heavily spending on Defense capabilities as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. So I agree not all European countries have taken it seriously up to now.

I think a couple of questions are very front and center right now.

Can the US be depended on to supply arms to Europe and Ukraine under a cash and carry arrangement?

Can the US be depended on to continue to provide unique services like space based assets to NATO and the Ukraine conflict?

If you think endless war is bad, wait until you have a short war that you lose.
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
878
323
96
So far Trump has not interfered in weapons sales and I sort of doubt he's inclined, even if they end up in Ukraine. As a stopgap the Europeans will probably need to step up purchases from the US while further expanding their own production capacity. Trump is not going to approve further aid to Ukraine...that much I'm pretty sure about.
And that implies that Europe might be also victim since if EU buys, the weapons might end in Ukraine.
 

APU_Fusion

Golden Member
Dec 16, 2013
1,629
2,405
136
Europe looks at China. Looks at United States. Says fuck you very much America. I think there is a belief that without the US, the rest of the world is doomed. Pretty arrogant
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
878
323
96
Europe looks at China. Looks at United States. Says fuck you very much America. I think there is a belief that without the US, the rest of the world is doomed. Pretty arrogant
The issue is that China would see Russia being nearer and nearer to US... it will backfire hard to Russia.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,960
1,093
126
So far Trump has not interfered in weapons sales and I sort of doubt he's inclined, even if they end up in Ukraine. As a stopgap the Europeans will probably need to step up purchases from the US while further expanding their own production capacity. Trump is not going to approve further aid to Ukraine...that much I'm pretty sure about.
Yea, Europe is going to need their own weapons. With US bought weapons they will need permission to use them or transfer them. With European weapons they have the freedom to use them as they wish. Trump really jagged the US defense industry and US influence on European military action.

I'm not going to defend the US's actions, but I don't see us going to war with Europe tomorrow so you can end with the hyperbole. I don't think they should be expecting us to do the heavy lifting every single time. Europe has a combined GDP nearly the same as the US but yet can barely support 30k troops outside their own borders. I can find article after article mentioning the state of disrepair most European armies are in. You're only supporting my idea that they expected the US to do it all if they're completely incapable on their own.
.

Your table doesn't show what you think it does. Germany is the largest single country and up until recently was spending far less than the recommended 2%. The only one's who were doing more than the 2% were mainly the small Baltic states and Poland, who all actually have taken it seriously but they're a small fraction in size unfortunately. But to answer your question at the very least the recommended 2%. But you also can't make up two decades of defense cuts by just now barely spending what they should have been the entire time. Combine that with how many of them had been giving what reserves of equipment they had to Ukraine and it only makes the problem worse. Trump told them 5 years before that and they didn't bother to do anything in most cases. You'd have thought Ukraine being invaded would have been a wake up call but they're only just now starting to take it seriously? Do you think the recommended minimum that is more geared towards peacetime to be enough in the climate of the past 3 years?

To be fair the US is finally realizing you have to have the munition and equipment reserves you need for a war today because there won't be time to build them in a modern war. Maybe Europe is going to as well.
When the Ukraine war fully kicked off in 2022, Germany authorized a 100 billion Euro budget to catch up. While those investments will take years to be fully realized, Europe hasn't been sitting around. With Russian loses in Ukraine, they are in no shape to attack Europe in this decade. By the time Russia rebuilds, Europe should be much stronger even without the US.

Another point is that NATO allowed countries to specialize in what they brought to the alliance. If the US was to bow out of the next fight, it would leave gaps for others to fill. It would be roles that they don't have much experience with since it has been done by the US for decades. Perun had a recent episode where he discussed the European path forward.
 

cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
Europe doesn't have the capability to deploy a decent size expeditionary force. The US has spent decades fully integrated into the European force structure. For example when US invoked article 5 during the war on terror. NATO countries that deployed troops overseas leaned heavily on US logistics support for those troops deployment to help defend US interests in the Middle East. Kind of interesting that the US was the only NATO country to invoke Article 5 but now wants to walk away from European security interests start become pressing.

What the table shows is a lot of countries have increased defense spending the last several years. Plus two recent entries into NATO, Sweden and Finland both bring considerable military capability. Finland has been preparing for decades for the Russians to come back. Also Europe heavily depends on US arms manufacturers and the US actively encouraged this even Trump and a lot of military contracts are backlogged on orders. Some European countries have been slower than others but overall a lot of the East European countries have been heavily spending on Defense capabilities as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. So I agree not all European countries have taken it seriously up to now.

I think a couple of questions are very front and center right now.

Can the US be depended on to supply arms to Europe and Ukraine under a cash and carry arrangement?

Can the US be depended on to continue to provide unique services like space based assets to NATO and the Ukraine conflict?

If you think endless war is bad, wait until you have a short war that you lose.
I generally agree with that. But at the same time I maintain large parts of Europe have for years relied too much on a combination of hope that nothing happens and relying on the US if it does. There have been exceptions and you are correct some have stepped up years ago. Unfortunately when the big players are the one's not doing that it's noticeable.

The timing is more to do with shifting sentiment of isolationism. And to be fair Ukraine isn't NATO, I can be unhappy about the way it's being handled but I can understand that argument. And yes I know they sent troops to Afghanistan. I also think there are legitimate reasons we are not able to continue fully supporting Ukraine, mostly related to being ready for a future possible war with China. If you think Europe is willing and able to help us there at all (even before this week) I have a bridge to sell you.

Those are both good questions.

I am also curious if Trump will even allow arm sales to support Ukraine today with his latest statements. His strategy to end the war seems to involve giving Russia everything they want. That it's easier to cutoff Ukraine than to get Russia to make concessions at the table. It also ignores the backlogs you mentioned earlier as well. And I can name several that are unfortunately very critical to Ukraine but very critical to a potential war with China and would be off the list for a long while.

The second I don't even begin to have enough information to have a clue about. I would guess as long as NATO still exists that little will change there but I have no basis to support it.

I'm wary of a short war with China that we lose. And that's the only reason I am less than onboard with continued full support to Ukraine however much that morally bothers me.
 

cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
Yea, Europe is going to need their own weapons. With US bought weapons they will need permission to use them or transfer them. With European weapons they have the freedom to use them as they wish. Trump really jagged the US defense industry and US influence on European military action.
How long do you think it takes to build the factories to build the systems they're going to need?
When the Ukraine war fully kicked off in 2022, Germany authorized a 100 billion Euro budget to catch up. While those investments will take years to be fully realized, Europe hasn't been sitting around. With Russian loses in Ukraine, they are in no shape to attack Europe in this decade. By the time Russia rebuilds, Europe should be much stronger even without the US.
Well it's a good thing Ukraine was there to defend Europe so they have time to make up for two decades of money they saved not spending it on their militaries.

The 100 billion was not to "catch up". The 100 billion was to meet the 2% goal, until the budget was raised to meet it. If you tossed in a few hundred billion more on top of meeting the 2% goal that would be catching up.

Another point is that NATO allowed countries to specialize in what they brought to the alliance. If the US was to bow out of the next fight, it would leave gaps for others to fill. It would be roles that they don't have much experience with since it has been done by the US for decades. Perun had a recent episode where he discussed the European path forward.

I agree with this to an extent. The problem is they've used it as an excuse to just depend on the US entirely in many cases.


Would Europe help in a US/SK/JPN vs China war tomorrow? Would they be of any real use if they did? Maybe that tells you why Ukraine should be Europe's problem and not the US's today.
 

cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
Europe looks at China. Looks at United States. Says fuck you very much America. I think there is a belief that without the US, the rest of the world is doomed. Pretty arrogant
It's been pretty true for nearly 100 years. If you don't like the way the US has handled themselves you'd love China taking their place.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,068
43,066
136
Would Europe help in a US/SK/JPN vs China war tomorrow? Would they be of any real use if they did? Maybe that tells you why Ukraine should be Europe's problem and not the US's today.

This cuts both ways. You can't insist Europe fend for itself like Trump is then try to dictate terms there. Sooner or later they will tell him to fuck off.
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
878
323
96
This cuts both ways. You can't insist Europe fend for itself like Trump is then try to dictate terms there. Sooner or later they will tell him to fuck off.
Even worse. Not only Europe, but also China will say fuck off to US and the latter treatens Russia to stop trying to unite with US without losing half of the country
 

cmcartman

Member
Aug 19, 2007
199
36
101
This cuts both ways. You can't insist Europe fend for itself like Trump is then try to dictate terms there. Sooner or later they will tell him to fuck off.

Answer the question as you would have a month ago then. I don't agree with the way he's done it but it's the one good thing that's coming out of this mess. And it's something that should have happened after his last term. You're acting like it didn't matter before but all of the sudden it does now when Trump is threating to completely leave NATO?

Maybe if they'd stepped up we wouldn't be in this mess but that blame isn't on Trump however big of one he's making right now.

Going past the idea of "is supporting Ukraine worthwhile" there are certain items the US can no longer provide and we have already dug too deep into our reserves as is. Most of their air defense is currently based around some of those systems and there are no quick replacements for them. The simple truth is that cupboard is dangerously low and it takes years to replace it. The current production rates are well below what they've been using each year in Ukraine and they're not easily able to be increased. It would put even a reasonable leader in between a rock and a hard place when deciding to continue supporting the war.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,068
43,066
136
Answer the question as you would have a month ago then. I don't agree with the way he's done it but it's the one good thing that's coming out of this mess. And it's something that should have happened after his last term. You're acting like it didn't matter before but all of the sudden it does now when Trump is threating to completely leave NATO?

Maybe if they'd stepped up we wouldn't be in this mess but that blame isn't on Trump however big of mess he's making right now.

Going past the idea of "is supporting Ukraine worthwhile" there are certain items the US can no longer provide and has already dug too deep into our reserves as is. Most of their air defense is currently based around some of those systems and there are no quick replacements for them. The simple truth is that cupboard is dangerously low and it takes years to replace it. The current production rates are well below what they've been using each year in Ukraine and they're not easily able to be increased. It would put even a reasonable leader in between a rock and a hard place when deciding to continue supporting the war.

Most of the outstanding aid is from USAI which purchases new products from US defense contractors and supplies them to Ukraine. Also part of the aid funding goes back to US companies to not only produce things but to expand production of those things (artillery shells, missiles, radars, interceptors, and MLRS). We can also easily afford to substitute items that they can use like providing way more air to ground munitions including cruise missiles that we are not short of.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,097
44,037
136


At least he made Zelenskyy's approval go up while making himself look like a clueless, obstinate baby.

Zelenskyy won office with 73% of the vote - you know that's always chapped Trump's diapered ass.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,068
43,066
136
Dear God, I earnestly hope so.

There were pretty hesitant to do this originally due to legal issues but they might just go YOLO. Anyway if they give the money to Ukraine then Ukraine will give it back by ordering huge amounts of military and non-military stuff from European firms.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,075
10,402
136
There were pretty hesitant to do this originally due to legal issues but they might just go YOLO. Anyway if they give the money to Ukraine then Ukraine will give it back by ordering huge amounts of military and non-military stuff from European firms.

It ends up being a way to convert (likely ill gotten) Russian $$$ to profits for western economies.
 
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