Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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You know who it is. Stop pretending that just because they're a lifestyle company they can't make good CPUs.

And go look at my original post. There is only one CPU series with a SPECint 1T score high enough and clock rate low enough to be nearly 50% ahead per GHz.
No, I do not know any company that could do that. And the posts since that agree with that. You are just trolling.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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And from the patent trail from last quarter you'd imagine AMD is a packaging specialist than CPU designer. Not good. Typically patent trail is good indicator of active research in novel ideas but not since last two quarters unfortunately. At least not much applications in core design.

With the gap widening between the leading mode (N2) and trailing nodes (N4, N7), smart partitioning and packaging will be the difference between winning and losing.

We are already seeing it in 9800x3d vs. Arrow Lake. Arrow Lake was pronounced dead because of 9800x3d, while it would still be somewhat viable vs. 9700x / 9950x.

It's funny that for a decade, Intel (with Foveros) was to be the "packaging specialist", but so far, Intel chiplet and packaging strategy / execution have been very much sub par.

It seems that with Zen 6, AMD is moving up a notch its packaging and modularity game. With Strix Halo like 2.5D, several types of IODs can be matched with standardized CCDs (which can also be 3D stacked). IOD's on high end could also be 3D stacked, and NPU, it seems like it lends itself to be another modular design.

Zen 6 may just be putting back in things that did not fit into Zen 5 (for faster turnaround) and mostly about new packaging / new modularity to cover the entire mid to premium to high end segments. Plus new process nodes. Plus, perhaps adding AMX instructions from Intel server CPUs to all AMD CPUs.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
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That slide could be red herring, there is no way that AMD only manages only 5-10% IPC in 2 years on N2 and if they do it’s because of Zen architecture needing a revamp and not cause x86 is dead.
It said >10% as I recall which is code for 11-12%. But anyway, they need to over-deliver in the consumer space because they're behind.
 
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Kepler_L2

Senior member
Sep 6, 2020
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PC has, despite all the hate over many years, continually increased performance. And so it had the highest available performance for over 20 years. Until it was finally passed in 2024. If - like Hulk is saying - 5% after 2 years is the best they can ship do you think it can still retain its relevance?

At least AMD's slide for Zen 6 was more optimistic than that.
Why on earth would PC CPUs hit some performance ceiling and phone CPUs wouldn't? Also despite all the hype AMD/Intel delivered larger IPC jumps than Apple since M1 launch. M2/M3/M4 are mostly just higher clocked/higher power versions of Firestorm.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
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What do you mean client workloads don't matter? Client was over 25% percent of AMD's 2024 revenue.
Yes, but I suspect that the lions share of the PROFIT came from DC. Additionally, DC is a market that is increasing rapidly while client? Not so much.
Zen 6 will likely use 2nm
Perhaps for the 32c variant (Zen 6c) on DC and possibly on client. Otherwise, I fully expect AMD to go with N3P for its desktop and laptop parts. This is necessary to maintain their margins and profit IMO.
More avenues to scaling exist now, for performance. Also... On the topic of dnsity. Have a look at the latest RDNA4 density numbers vs RDNA3. Big gains still have been found. Though that's not the main point, which is that there are more ways to eek out performance.

Cost is going up, so have to be smarter about when to use bleeding edge and when not to. What will new materials bring. Glass substrates. Optical conputing. More to come...
The biggest difference between RDNA3 and RDNA4 is the return to a monolithic die IMO. The density gains are only partly the improved process. Not having a bunch of interconnect logic on a bunch of chiplets is likely the cause of the lower density on RDNA3.
Current x86 cores are just bad client cores, plain and simple. In what world it is acceptable for a laptop core to be gapped by a phone (the iPhone, to be precise) in running browsers.
Gapped in what? The strength of x86 is, has been, and always will be the incredible plethora of applications that are written for it. Seems like Apple has forgotten (as many here have .... or are too young to remember) how they nearly went bankrupt with their lack of app support. Used to go into the computer store to purchase programs. One tiny little shelf of Apple stuff, and an entire shop of x86 programs.

This has not changed significantly. x86 is still relevant today for the same reason it was relevant back then. Something pretty serious would have to change fundamentally for this fact to change IMO.
And chances are, AMD client CPU revenue will surpass datacenter CPU revenue again this year.
But not profit.... and the trend is quite clear.
People, especially younger ones, already tend to use their phones as their main computing device. If phones start beating laptops in consumer workloads, then the whole segment will fade into irrelevance (DT already did).

There will be no need for x86.
Until a phone can do everything my laptop can, this is kind of a silly statement. Today, phones can't do even a small fraction of what a laptop does ..... and that doesn't even account for my previous x86 discussion on program compatibility.
As for Zen6, Nanoflex on N2 will remove the frequency stagnation. Fun times ahead.
How do you figure? The compute tile is already completely optimized for compute. I don't believe that companies (and certainly not AMD) will go back to monolithic in server, desktop and laptop segments. In fact, I think that even though RDNA4 went back, it is temporary. It simply doesn't make sense in MOST markets to pay the very high cost of a leading edge node and then only get a small number of good dies out of that very expensive wafer.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Perhaps for the 32c variant (Zen 6c) on DC and possibly on client. Otherwise, I fully expect AMD to go with N3P for its desktop and laptop parts. This is necessary to maintain their margins and profit IMO.
No it's like all N2 besides lower-end mobile stuff (KRK replacements).
The biggest difference between RDNA3 and RDNA4 is the return to a monolithic die IMO
Nope it's the microarchitecture.
A (however limited) memory reordering capacity! On a GPU! how cool.
Not having a bunch of interconnect logic on a bunch of chiplets is likely the cause of the lower density on RDNA3.
the opposite really, RDNA3 GCDs should be inherently higher density since they lack the MALL pile and all the shoreline required for DDR to work.
How do you figure?
what
 
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OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
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It's funny that for a decade, Intel (with Foveros) was to be the "packaging specialist", but so far, Intel chiplet and packaging strategy / execution have been very much sub par.
Interesting point. In fact, one could argue that Arrow Lakes failure is completely related to the poor inter-tile latencies introduced. AMD also suffered a setback with Zen 2, but is now somehow able to alleviate (or greatly so) the latency problems between die on a MCM. Intel needs to catch up rather quickly IMO. This seems to be where the large improvements seem to be lurking vs process density as in the past.
Zen 6 may just be putting back in things that did not fit into Zen 5 (for faster turnaround) and mostly about new packaging / new modularity to cover the entire mid to premium to high end segments. Plus new process nodes. Plus, perhaps adding AMX instructions from Intel server CPUs to all AMD CPUs.
I think the biggest change will be the IOD improvements. Faster memory, and lower latency may well account for the largest changes we see. I suspect that a few tweaks to the core will also be introduced, but those might be pretty minor in the overall scheme.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
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Why on earth would PC CPUs hit some performance ceiling and phone CPUs wouldn't? Also despite all the hype AMD/Intel delivered larger IPC jumps than Apple since M1 launch. M2/M3/M4 are mostly just higher clocked/higher power versions of Firestorm.
Zen 3 and M1 were on par. 5950X was 9.15 and M1 Pro was 9.2 in SPECint 2017 1T.
Zen 5 and M4 are not on par. 9950X is 12.6 and M4 Pro is 13.6. Firestorm derivatives are pulling away.
I'm not the one arguing AMD should hit a wall. There is nothing fundamental. And if they deliver measly 1T gains again that's their own choice.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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In fact, one could argue that Arrow Lakes failure is completely related to the poor inter-tile latencies introduced
no LNC is just pretty bad and their L3 is even moreso bad.
Zen 5 and M4 are not on par. 9950X is 12.6 and M4 Pro is 13.6. Firestorm derivatives are pulling away.
wonder what's the difference.
Definitely not the node. Can't be that right?
I think the biggest change will be the IOD improvements
The biggest change is the goddamn double-shrink.
Client is outta the N-1 ghetto for once.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,058
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Will we see some 9950X3D reviews soon or will it not be until the 12th?

It's been a while since I've digested a good CPU review.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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But not profit.... and the trend is quite clear.

Operating margin would be a good variable to look at. In datacenter (which includes CPU and GPU), it is 30%

On client side, it is 19%.

But the important thing about client is that AMD is spending on client R+D to cover 90% of the market, while revenue is only 20% of the market. At 40% of the market, client segment would surpass server in both absolute revenue and also in operating margin.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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you do understand that they can grow CPU and GPGPU share in DC too

GPGPU is in its own universe - as far as total size of the market and then market share.

But I think there is more potential to grow in client, since AMD is starting from lower base. IIRC, ~22% in CPU client and ~34% in CPU server.

As far as CPU revenue, while AMD did not volunteer the breakdown of datacenter (between CPU, GPU), CPU is estimated to be ~2 billion, while client revenue was already 2.3 billion in Q4
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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What do you mean "no". GPGPU revenue is on such a trajectory and speed that itescaped gravity of the Earth.

It's going to suck up all of the resources of the Earth to continue to grow, like in the "Oblivion"

34% is rev share, not units.

I am guessing that AMD unit share in datacenter CPU is lower than revenue share. Since AMD ASPs are most likely higher than Intel ASPs.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,491
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Saying that IPC is reduced by the operating system is like saying that my car's horsepower goes down when your mom gets in.

My mom drives slower than me. My car would get slower with my mom driving.

Must resist the urge to devolve into yo mama jokes . . . !

Casinos are not video games.

No but video games can be made into casinos!

Zen 6 still needs to be on the 19% side of 1x% to be a success in client.
Versus what? The competition from Intel? I know people want to bring up Apple, but when Intel's overall marketshare in client is still higher than Apple's, it makes sense for AMD to gobble up as much of that as they can instead of worrying about Apple. Even if Zen6 only manages a paltry 10% increase in IPC, it's probably going to gain ground on Intel in client.
 
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eek2121

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2005
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"PC is dying" is a 20-year old trope and never been true. In fact latest research shows the largest growth market for things like gaming is PC.
20 years? Oh Kepler, it has been on death row since the 80s. 🤣
M1 was node ahead and Zen 3 could still compete. It's not the real reason.
The real difference is Apple is throwing power around now too.

Zen 6 still needs to be on the 19% side of 1x% to be a success in client.
Apple has stagnated. They have relied on adding things like SME and higher clocks in order to push performance up.

They don’t currently have a server offering, and client sucks for some things like gaming. They are a node ahead and still struggle to keep up.

At any rate, my suspicion is Zen 6 will have a larger than normal performance increase due to node shrinks. I am guessing another 20-25% total improvement for single core. We shall see.

NOTE: that I did not use IPC here.
 

gdansk

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
4,030
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it's probably going to gain ground on Intel in client
Intel has a yearly cadence. AMD will need Zen 6 simply to recover ground lost to Intel delivering new products. OEMs love saying they have something new. And since the mobile Zen 6 parts apparently aren't launching until 2027Q1 it might be two "generations" of losing ground to Intel.

I am guessing another 20-25% total improvement for single core. We shall see.
Apple M4 is already ahead of Zen 6 mobile parts in SPECint 2017 1T unless AMD improves by 35%+ for laptop parts. Is anyone claiming Zen 6 will be that much of an improvement in these benchmarks? You want to start another hype train to run off a cliff? Zen 6 is designed to be a smaller core so they can fix 12 in 70-80mm. It's just the nature of Zen to be focused on server and that establishes an upper limit on size and a preference for a large L3 instead of L2. That Zen presently managed to be better than two different Intel cores shows what disarray Intel is in, not how great Zen 5 is.
 
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