Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

Page 19 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

oak8292

Member
Sep 14, 2016
140
158
116
Very funny development since the BoD didn't listen to him while he was part of it, so what will be the change when he's CEO? The BoD ended up firing Pat without base in reality, it will eventually do the same with LBT. Let's see what he manages to change until then (changes visible right away since we can't expect the Intel BoD to be able to look further than one quarter).
My guess is that LBTs mandate is to stop the bleeding with foundry 2.0. He knows Pat’s plan and he doesn’t really have time to change much other than dramatically trim the work force. Intel has $50 billion in foundry spending that they are bringing on line.

LBT’s experience at Cadence gives him knowledge about how TSMCs fabless works and he is familiar with many of the fabless customers because they were also his customers.

I don’t know much about him but I can be sold the concept that he is the right person with his background. I also don’t know what this means for x86 IP versus other non-Intel IP. LBT may not have bought into the x86 first model of Pat. Bring money and you have access. Companies like Nvidia and Apple can pay a lot for access to nodes. Can Intel outbid Apple for leading edge? Does Nvidia outbid both and want a process custom designed for their needs?

I think things collapsed faster than Pat expected and he made some bad bets on wafer demand with Apollo and Brookfield. There were already late penalties last quarter for Ireland. Skipping 20A might mean there are more penalties in Arizona. There is a lot of capital that needs to be deployed. LBT needs to get fabs up and running full with x86 customers or anybody with money.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,908
4,279
106
I think things collapsed faster than Pat expected and he made some bad bets on wafer demand with Apollo and Brookfield. There were already late penalties last quarter for Ireland. Skipping 20A might mean there are more penalties in Arizona. There is a lot of capital that needs to be deployed. LBT needs to get fabs up and running full with x86 customers or anybody with money.

Interesting. How does it work? When the revenue from the fab is below certain minimum, which Apollo or Brookfield were promised?
 

reaperrr3

Member
May 31, 2024
75
240
66
GFX division is still necessary for competitive IP for SoCs and to scale out AI biz. I think discrete efforts will get the axe but not the division as a whole.
What AI biz?

But yeah, discrete GFX are likely going to die for good now.
I wouldn't be surprised if R&D was scaled down a bit, too.

I also think Intel is generally spending too much silicon real estate trying to beat AMD IGP perf in markets where IGP perf actually doesn't really matter, apart from video encode/decode where Intel is ahead regardless of EU count anyway.

AMD cornered desktop DIY with something between zero (up to Zen3) and "barely existing" (Zen4/5) IGPs, all those 32EU IGPs on faster desktop CPUs are objectively wasted margin for the most part.

Intel should've long ago started doing a mobile-focused 6+8+ 32 EU and a desktop-focused 8+16+ 8 EU, as the latter will usually be paired with discrete GFX from AMD or NV anyway.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,473
12,328
136
Intel had to settle for poor man's Tan? Kind of like a spray tan?

After Hock Tan of Broadcom said "no"?

Imagine that, the Hock Tuah girl was similarly disinterested.

They went with him? Damn, they must not have received my application!
A tragedy for the ages. Just think of the influence we could have had! Finally, SMT4 cores! Just not at AMD.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and NTMBK

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,424
2,305
96
AMD cornered desktop DIY with something between zero (up to Zen3) and "barely existing" (Zen4/5) IGPs, all those 32EU IGPs on faster desktop CPUs are objectively wasted margin for the most part.

Intel should've long ago started doing a mobile-focused 6+8+ 32 EU and a desktop-focused 8+16+ 8 EU, as the latter will usually be paired with discrete GFX from AMD or NV anyway.
Opinions can vary WILDLY. I'm pretty sure there are others that vehemently disagree with you.

I, am not that extreme, but they still need to be competitive, because that is one factor that will make it a negative if the GPU performance is worse. Then that's entire CPU not being sold versus slight loss in margins due to a larger die. What, you want them to abandon it to save $2-3 per device? Very MBA like mindset.

I think you are overestimating the impact of the costs of a bigger die, especially in the 100-150mm2 die area market.

Also, they shouldn't abandon the dGPU market. Half of their entire problem is giving up on a project too early. If you are going to do that, DON'T START AT ALL!

dGPUs have a positive side effect of making the whole graphics part much more competitive than otherwise, which might have further uses behind gaming, HPC, crypto mining, AI, and who knows what else?
 

DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,424
2,305
96
Makes sense. Hire a person whose job is to stop the leak and stabilize the ship, then hand it off to a younger CEO who can take on more risk and make big bets. LBT is 65 years old. I highly doubt he'll be the Lisa Su of Intel.
The whole "stop the leak and stabilize the ship and hand it off to a proper CEO" was supposedly Bob Swan --> Pat Gelsinger.

IMO this is just a continuation of a broader trend which results in US ultimately losing the final area in technology leadership(and economic leadership). Just like the market there will be ups and downs but ultimately a decline.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,904
6,389
136
Also, they shouldn't abandon the dGPU market. Half of their entire problem is giving up on a project too early. If you are going to do that, DON'T START AT ALL!

It made sense when they started. When it no longer made sense (with the 10nm troubles), they should have killed it then. That they didn't is symptomatic of the dumbness that the company's had for quite some time.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
741
1,180
96
What AI biz?
Lip-Bu has strong views on AI business and the fact Intel didn't had anything competitive or a solid roadmap to tackle the market was one of the reason he disagreed with the previous board.

With him in charge, I expect whatever AI plans they have to become more solid and pick up pace.
Intel should've long ago started doing a mobile-focused 6+8+ 32 EU and a desktop-focused 8+16+ 8 EU, as the latter will usually be paired with discrete GFX from AMD or NV anyway.
On Desktop I do agree. Intel ships too much GFX silicon compared to AMD.

But on Mobile? No. Reducing iGPU efforts on Mobile is a surefire way to kill your competitiveness. AMD, QCOM, Apple and Nvidia will be shipping more and more competitive iGP silicon.

Reducing IGP efforts is also a great way to kill yourself out of current niche markets like Handheld PCs/Home-Centric PCs, which while still nascent currently, will get a shake-up in just a few years once Xbox and Windows are merged.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and DavidC1

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
741
1,180
96
Intel had products that were in theory competitive performance wise. Nobody cared.
Did they? Outside of Gaudi, which Intel killed in another series of stupid decisions, what else did they had?

They acquired Habana, Nervana, Itseez, Saffron, Indysis, etc and weren't able to have neither a proper hardware roadmap nor focused software investment.

AMD has been executing on the MI series relentlessly for 5 years. And just now we're seeing such investments bearing fruits. That in spite of a very weak SW foundation.

Intel had no roadmap and no compromise. They were releasing one-offs thinking that would be enough. The result is that they missed a profitable market that would have boosted their financials and stock price.

They killed Gaudi 4 promising Falcon Shores would replace it and it would SW compatible with Gaudi 3 efforts. Then Falcon Shores was downgraded from an system integrated hardware to just a GPU. And finally it was killed, with another promise that they'll get right in two years with Jaguar Shores. No one will get behind their efforts with such history.
 

DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator CPU Forum Mod and Elite Member
Super Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
30,720
28,028
146
It gave the stock a nice bump. If you bought at under $19 sell soon is my free advice.

The real question is how much will private equity get ahold of? INTC is doomed if the vultures get in deep.
 
Jul 27, 2020
23,091
16,257
146
What's really funny is that Intel could've created a Xeon Phi type of product with AMX instruction set pretty quickly for AI workloads. Instead, they kept dancing around, like a kid in a candy store who has no idea what he wants.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,855
8,910
136
The whole "stop the leak and stabilize the ship and hand it off to a proper CEO" was supposedly Bob Swan --> Pat Gelsinger.

IMO this is just a continuation of a broader trend which results in US ultimately losing the final area in technology leadership(and economic leadership). Just like the market there will be ups and downs but ultimately a decline.
Yeah, supposedly but the Intel that PG inherited wasn’t exactly a lean Intel, and then PG spent money like a drunk sailor which is kind of antithetical to the Rory Read to Lisa Su transition where AMD stayed lean and focused throughout her tenure. PG bet big and basically lost, and now they got LBT to come in, do damage control, and salvage whatever he can. I honestly think he has a larger hill to climb than PG when PG started his role, simply based on there not being Covid to boost chip demand, AMD/Nvidia are solidly more ahead than before, and employee morale is going to take an even bigger hit if he had to make cuts.
 
Jul 27, 2020
23,091
16,257
146
I honestly think he has a larger hill to climb than PG when PG started his role, simply based on there not being Covid to boost chip demand, AMD/Nvidia are solidly more ahead than before, and employee morale is going to take an even bigger hit if he had to make cuts.
Absolutely agree with you. Whatever good Pat did, it will be forgotten if LBT succeeds in steering Intel in the right direction despite the rather grim prospects for Intel's future at the moment. If that happens, I would then say Pat was necessary because most likely Intel would never have considered LBT for the CEO position had Pat not messed up so badly.
 
Jul 27, 2020
23,091
16,257
146
I'm sure all 12 of those customers would be ecstatic
Nah. There's lots of such people. I will state my own example. I think the world as a whole looks to be going towards increased instability and uncertainty in every sense of the word so I am finding it easier and easier to throw money away at some hardware to experience the good stuff before everything comes crashing down.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |